Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner headline the ATP’s Rolex Shanghai Masters preview as the tennis elite gather to top off the valuable Asian swing. This year’s Shanghai Masters is complicated, for two big reasons.
A cloud hangs over new world number one Sinner because of continued procedural wrangling over a positive drug test. The question of a suspension will be determined in the coming months. The calm Italian superstar hasn’t been too bothered by the events, but how much conflict can one guy take?
The other mystery is a little more esoteric and involves court speed. Prior to last year, the Rolex Shanghai Masters had been known as the fastest hard court tournament on the ATP Tour. Skilled servers and guys with short backswings (or whose backswings that could be adjusted accordingly) excelled here.
Then a curious turn in 2023. Daniil Medvedev, a former Shanghai champ, suggested that the court speed had slowed down not a little– but so much that it rivaled one of the slowest hard courts on the ATP Tour: Indian Wells.
Taylor Fritz disagreed, but then turned right around and lost to Diego Scharwartzman in the round of 32. Maybe Meddy had a point? Hubert Hurcacz beat Andrey Rublev to win the tournament– two excellent fast-court players. So perhaps we’re parsing grains of sand here. Still, I believe even the perception of court speed can impact player performance.
Medvedev has been playing well, enjoying a deep run at the China Open, so I’m bullish on him. Especially given that however “slow” the Shanghai courts might’ve been last year, each year hard courts increase marginally in speed until they are resurfaced. So I like Meddy’s chances. More on that below.
To the Shanghai Masters preview and draw analysis.
Shanghai Masters preview: Sinner Quarter
Sinner’s quarter isn’t easy, having drawn the 5 seed Medvedev at the bottom of this section. My bracket has a rematch of two ascending talents in Ben Shelton and Arthur Fils. These young guys just met in Japan last week, where Fils won in 3 tight sets. I might give the edge to Shelton due to his lefty slice serve, but it’s a pick ‘em match. Then I have Sinner playing the winner there for a spot in the quarters.
Elsewhere in that section: my darkhorse. Having seen Kei Nishikori’s solid play in Tokyo, and knowing how his game is designed to take away time from a surface that doesn’t allow much anyway, I like Kei to upset both Stefanos Tsitsipas and Felix Auger-Aliassime.
However, I think the run stops with Medvedev, setting up a Sinner-Meddy quarterfinal. There, I think the weight of the past months could catch up with Jannik. That’s not a statistical analysis but purely an instinctual one.
Carlos Alcaraz
The Spanish phenom has an easy draw, having gotten “clay court Casper” Ruud as his next-best in the quarter. Alcaraz needs the easy glide because he’s played a ridiculous amount of tennis since the US Open. That said, his legs are young, and I see him easing past the likes of Ugo Humbert and even Tommy Paul to make the semifinals. There, I truly believe the globetrotting will catch up to Alcaraz. Even the Energizer Bunny is only a man. A man with a sweet bass drum and some sick shades, but still just a man.
Shanghai Masters preview: Djokovic Quarter
Novak Djokovic is very much an X factor here. He’s won Shanghai four times. He’s healthy and playing well. But his he motivated? He rarely lacks for drive when playing for country. But this is just another Masters 1000.
The top of this section of the draw includes Andrey Rublev, Alexei Popyrin and Grigor Dimitrov– all suited to Shanghai. You’ve got to think one of the three of those guys plays Novak for a spot in the semis. I’m going to reluctantly go with Rublev. Despite a tumultuous year, Andrey lives for these late-season points bonanzas. And he’s still aiming for a spot in ATP Finals Top 8.
In that potential matchup, the Djokovic Rublev H2H is 5-1 in favor of the GOAT, so let’s not overthink it.
Alexander Zverev
Overall in this tournament, I sense American fatigue. The US Open was such a huge, grinding party for players like Fritz, Frances Tiafoe and Tommy Paul that I have my doubts about their chances here. The exception is Brandon Nakashima whose consistent game seems to be catching momentum.
I see Nakashima, a proficient spot-server, knocking off Fritz and potentially the winner of a Holger Rune-Jiri Lehecka match. Rune is still struggling to gather his game, so probably Lehecka. Then I see Zverev, who has a very straightforward few rounds, quietly sneaking up on the entire draw.
Zverev serves well no matter the court speed, and this is the type of tournament he usually puts away– a big trophy but not a Grand Slam. Asia is away from the glare of the tennis season’s thick part. Plus with a stellar Shanghai record of 10-5, Zverev’s comfort level could peak.
Players to Watch:
QF: Medvedev, Alcaraz, Djokovic, Zverev
SF: Medvedev, Zverev
F: Zverev