2024 Nitto ATP Finals Preview and Analysis
With Jannik Sinner, One Group Emerges as Significantly More Difficult
For the first time in 23 years, the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals preview features no members of the Big 3. Defending and 7-time champion Novak Djokovic opted to sit this tournament out.
What an opportunity.
Many fans underestimate the most crucial element of this tournament: Cash. In the unique sport that pro tennis is— where each player is their own CEO– nothing beats money to make life easier. Generally prize money leads to more prize money.
The winner of this 2024 ATP Finals sets himself up for dominance in 2025. The ATP Finals preview reveals a total award of $15.25 million. If one player wins all his matches, he would take home a record-breaking $4.8 million in prize money. That pays for amenities like traveling physios and trips on private jets. It’s a more comfortable way to live when managing the brutal demands of the ATP schedule.
Now to the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals preview and analysis.
Ilie Nastase Group
[1] Jannik Sinner
[4] Daniil Medvedev
[5] Taylor Fritz
[7] Alex de Minaur
John Newcombe Group
[2] Alexander Zverev
[3] Carlos Alcaraz
[6] Casper Ruud
[8] Andrey Rublev
The format for the 2024 ATP Finals: Groups play a round robin, with the top 2 advancing, followed by semifinals and a final match on Sunday November 17.
Zverev Group
One of these groups is not like the other: It’s much easier. The Newcombe Group features Casper Ruud, not a great hard courter, and Andrey Rublev, who has struggled with his mental game and court composure in 2024. In addition, despite having perhaps the best hands in tennis, Alcaraz has complained recently about fast indoor court speeds.
Finally, Zverev who has struggled with a lung issue this fall, has just completed a long, winning run at the Paris indoors. Fatigue could be an issue.
Zverev vs Alcaraz is a tantalizing match featuring a contrast in styles. The Zverev Alcaraz H2H is tied at 5, but the German owns the indoor series 2-0. Hard as it is to believe, Alcaraz has only played one ATP Finals– last year where he went 2-2, losing to Zverev and Djokovic. The German’s serve holds up well in these conditions. Because this will not be the Spaniard’s first match played here in Turin (Alcaraz opens with Ruud), Carlitos will have time to adjust to conditions. Tough call, but due to the fatigue factor, I’ll go with Alcaraz in 3 sets, at least one of which will end in a breaker.
Zverev vs Ruud. Alex leads the H2H 2-3. The match hinges on Zverev rallying to Ruud’s backhand and crushing his own. Casper would be smart to rally to the Zverev forehand, but it’s very tough to change direction on fast indoor courts. Plus the dominant first serve favors Alex. Zverev in 2.
The Zverev vs Rublev match will be a battle of patience for both players. I like Alex here because he’s been steadily improving in the front court while Andrey has not. Rublev’s flat, skidding ball is always a challenge on any kind of surface, particularly for a tall player. But Zverev is more mentally fit at the moment, plus he possesses the H2H 6-3. I like Zverev in 2.
Alcaraz vs Ruud is an ideal way to warm up for Carlos. Ruud has never beaten him in 4 tries– and while they haven’t met indoors– that’s less than ideal for Casper. If Carlos has a subpar serving day, he can always attack the Ruud backhand wing, the same as he would for a one-hander. Casper’s high spin rate on the backhand side will only do Alcaraz a favor by sitting up more in his strike zone. Alcaraz in 2.
The Alcaraz vs Rublev H2H (1-1) is hilarious. Andrey beat Carlos on clay, and Carlos beat Andrey on indoor hard. It’s the opposite of what you’d think. Since Rublev lost here to Alcaraz last year, I doubt 2024 has given Andrey much clarity on this front. But his energy might still yield him a set. Alcaraz in 3.
The Ruud vs Rublev H2H favors the Russian 5-2. Despite having a career indoor win percentage of only 57%, Ruud has beaten Rublev twice at the ATP Finals. My only theory is that Rublev grinds himself to a pulp during the season, while Ruud takes time off. Lack of load management catches up with the ginger at the end of the season. It would surprise me if Rublev let Casper beat him in Turin 3 years running, though. Rublev in 3.
ATP Finals Preview: Jannik Sinner Group
World number one and 2-time Grand Slam champion Jannik Sinner opens with Alex de Minaur, the most favorable of matchups for the Italian. Sinner owns the H2H 7-0, including their last 2 meetings indoors. Sinner’s style of play is a nightmare for Alex, so let’s not overthink. Sinner in 2.
Although the Sinner vs Medvedev H2H is tied at 7, their series has essentially been one-way traffic. They met in Shanghai a few weeks ago, and it wasn’t pretty for Meddy. The Russian likes a slower hard court and has struggled with his serve in 2024. Sinner in 2.
Sinner vs Fritz, a rematch of this year’s US Open final, showed that skilled returning is the key to this battle. Fritz will serve big, but Sinner’s ability to neutralize makes any great server feel annoyed. The wheels come off when those free points are not accessible. All that sparring with Djokovic along the French Riviera is obviously paying dividends. Sinner in 3.
Medvedev vs Fritz: Meddy has the H2H 1-0. How can it be that these two lanky superstars– mainstays of the ATP Tour– have only met once? And all the way back in 2022, no less. I think Medvedev is going to find a much improved Fritz from a match-fitness standpoint. He’s physically more imposing, has worked to tame his errors and is cooler under pressure than he was in 2022. Since they both like video games, maybe work something out on Twitch after the match? Fritz in 3.
A compelling 2024 Nitto ATP Finals preview match features Medvedev vs de Minaur. The overall series is 3-6, but it’s 2-2 over the last 2 years. I call this the “big steps vs small steps” match. If Demon is fit and healthy, I think he makes a tired Meddy run and brings him forward, where he’s uncomfortable. That said, de Minaur has been battling a hip injury. It might be close. Medvedev in 3.
Fritz vs de Minaur. Alex leads the H2H 5-3, and he’s just the kind of player to frustrate Taylor. Their splits by surface reveal advantages for the shorter, faster Aussie on fast courts. This might be one of the more visually appealing matches of the tournament. I see a fair amount of exchanges of breaks due to Demon’s return prowess– as well as his relatively slow serve. I see tiebreakers in my crystal ball. Fritz in 3.
My 2024 Nitto ATP Finals Preview Players to Watch:
SF: Sinner, Fritz, Alcaraz, Zverev
F: Sinner def. Alcaraz