2024 Rolex Paris Masters: Draw Preview and Analysis
Sinner, Alcaraz don’t have much to play for, but others do
The Rolex Paris Masters 2024 draw preview and analysis reveals a dramatic power-grab for points just beneath the top seeds including Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, who don’t need them.
This indoor Masters 1000 event serves as a vital opportunity for a certain level of elite player to book a trip to the year-ending ATP Finals in Turin. Sinner and Alcaraz, winners of the Grand Slams, are cemented.
In addition to their Grand Slam prize money, Sinner and Alcaraz recently played in a record-breakingly lucrative exhibition. Now they are headed for the wealth of the ATP Finals. The rich keep getting richer. In tennis, money buys stardom, convenience, comfort, top seedings and generally more winning.
But what about the next tier? Players ranked around the Top 8 certainly could use the cash Turin provides. With Novak Djokovic not certain to play the ATP Finals, that’s even one more spot inside the Top 8 that could be available. Defending champion Djokovic has chosen to skip the Paris Masters as well.
The Rolex Paris Masters awards 1000 points to the winner of the tournament and 650 to the runner up, with descending buckets of points awarded thereafter.
To the 2024 Rolex Paris Masters draw preview and analysis.
Sinner Quarter
With 64 players in the field, the draw is refined. Substantive matchups happen early. Ben Shelton takes on Felix Auger Aliassime in a choice first-round contest. The winner plays Sinner. While Shelton has an outside shot at Turin, drawing a 2nd round potential with Sinner is unlucky.
The plot really tenses up with Turin potentials Holger Rune, Alex De Minaur and Taylor Fritz all in this section of the draw. Holger plays well indoors and won this tournament in 2022. He could play spoiler to a fatigued Sinner. But I actually favor Fritz to come through the quarter. He’s got a favorable position for Turin, but a good run in Paris ices it. Big servers generally love indoor conditions where their strokes are true and pure.
Even though Sinner beat Fritz to win the US Open in straights, the sets were high quality. Their head to head is 2-1 in favor of the Italian. I base this pick solely on the fact that Sinner, having just won 6 million dollars, has very little to play for at this precise moment in time.
Rolex Paris Masters Draw Preview and Analysis: Zverev Quarter
Alexander Zverev has been playing solidly, despite battling a lung issue. He has locked a ticket to the ATP Finals with over 6,000 points and a position of 3 in the Race. He probably could use some time to recuperate. Remember, after a long year, most of the players have toured Asia, battling jet lag as well as their opponents in the fall points chase. I like hometown kid Arthur Fils to upset Zverev in this section. But Andrey Rublev is my pick to come through this quarter because he loves indoor hard courts, and he has everything to play for.
Hovering at 8th in the Race, Rublev needs the points to make Turin and put a positive spin on a subpar, emotionally taxing year. A pair of one-handed backhands, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Lorenzo Musetti, probably can’t overcome Rublev here, for different reasons.
Medvedev Quarter
This area of the draw has some plum first-round matches. Circle the Alexei Popyrin – Matteo Berrettini tilt. Both players are jostling to position themselves at the Australian Open. Matteo could use a seed, and Alexei could use a high seed at his home Slam.
Francis Tiafoe and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard should make for an exciting match. They’ve never played, and I can’t wait to see Foe’s face trying to return that serve. That said, I think the one-handed backhand will be just enough of a liability on this surface to give Francis the edge. He’s got loads of experience indoors, and he loves it.
Daniil Medvedev, seeded 4th, keeps running up against Sinner and Alcaraz. Other than those two opponents, he’s generally been playing well. The jury is out on Meddy’s incentives here. He’s already qualified for Turin.
At the top of this quarter sits Grigor Dimitrov, with possibly the most to gain. Grigor stands at 10 in the Race. He plays exceptionally well on this court, having made it to the finals last year, where he lost to Djokovic. His head to head vs Medvedev is 3-8, but one of those 3 wins came here at the Paris Masters. I’m going to give the slightest of nods to Grigor. As you can see, incentive weighs heavily in my fall analysis. Why? These guys are human beings, not robots.
2024 Rolex Paris Masters Draw Preview and Analysis: Alcaraz Quarter
Easy draw. The Spaniard has criss-crossed the globe recently, and he has earned this cake walk. Ugo Humbert, Tommy Paul and Casper Ruud are the other seeds in this quarter.
Let’s break it down. Ruud doesn’t play well in these conditions. His career record here is 3-5. Tommy Paul, having won recently in Stockholm, is tired and likely ready to crack open a cold one and return to the States. Alcaraz has a 2-0 record vs. Humbert and beat him badly earlier this year on indoor hard court. Other unseeded players like Flavio Cobolli have been hurt. This should be easy for Carlos until the semifinals, where it gets substantially tougher.
My players to watch:
QF: Fritz, Rublev, Dimitrov, Alcaraz
SF: Fritz, Alcaraz
F: Alcaraz