2024 WTA Finals: Preview and Draw Analysis
Multiple Grand Slam Champions Sabalenka and Swiatek lead Purple and Orange Groups
The 2024 WTA Finals preview moves to Saudi Arabia after bouncing around the Americas, kicking off a 3-year contract in Riyadh. These 8 WTA players have climbed to a point of intrigue in 2024, as women’s tennis begins to see a coalescence of talent in the aftermath of the Williams sisters’ dominance.
Five-time Grand Slam champion Iga Swiatek, relinquishing her grip on #1 in the world, sits atop the WTA’s Orange Group as the 2 seed. Aryna Sabalenka, now tops in the rankings, presides over the Purple Group as the 1 seed.
Purple
1 Sabalenka
4 Paolini
5 Rybakina
7 Zheng
Orange
2 Swiatek
3 Gauff
6 Pegula
8 Krejikova
The format for the 2024 WTA Finals preview consists of round robin play in the group stage, with the top 2 players advancing to single elimination semifinals. The final will be played Saturday November 9.
To the 2024 WTA Finals preview and draw analysis.
WTA Finals Preview: Court Speed
The Saudis constructed the center court at King Saud University Indoor Arena in just 5 days. It’s made of a wood base with acrylic paint. I consulted an expert in tennis court construction. He told me the courts should play fast, and the players might not love the surface because it’s different than what they’re used to with the traditional hard courts on tour.
With a fast court, big servers will wield their weapon of choice at this event. Advantage: Sabalenka. Disadvantage: Swiatek. Keep this in mind when considering the 2024 WTA Finals preview.
Purple Group
Sabalenka and Jasmine Paolini have a H2H record of 2-2, with the Belarusian taking their last meeting in straight sets on hard court in Beijing last year. As much as Paolini has developed into an all-court star, it will be a tall task to overcome Sabalenka’s power in these conditions. Aryna in 2.
Elena Rybakina is coming off a tumultuous year, plagued by injuries, illness and mental health concerns. The payday and points of the WTA Finals were likely needed, otherwise she might have taken the rest of the year to recuperate. Nonetheless, it’s wonderful to see Rybakina back in action. These conditions would seem to suit her, given her serve, but she’s out of match practice. I don’t see her beating an in-form Sabalenka. The Sabalenka Rybakina H2H is 6-3 in favor of Aryna. Sabalenka in 2.
The Rybakina Paolini contest is closer and more intriguing. These two players are tied at 2 in their overall series, and the matches have been close. On a fast court, I’d normally give Elena the edge, but coming off an injury and a coaching change is not ideal against a high-shot-tolerance player like Jasmine. Paolini in 3.
Qinwen Zheng has catapulted herself into elite status with a sensational 2024 which included an Olympic gold medal. She also just took the title in Tokyo. Like Coco Gauff, when Zheng makes her first serve, she has a high likelihood of winning the point. But Zheng’s first serve in play (52%) trails even Gauff’s. She doesn’t double fault as much as Coco, but her serve is still not optimal in terms of the metrics. This is an area Sabalenka has figured out. Aryna owns the H2H 4-0. Sabalenka in 2.
On the flipside, Zheng seems to have Paolini’s number, with a 3-0 advantage in their series, including a recent win in Wuhan. Putting aside the story of her serving at the moment, Zheng is also one of the tour’s top returners. On a fast court, she’ll likely eat Paolini’s second serve alive. Paolini is also the only singles player also competing in doubles. The time on court starts to add up. Zheng in 2.
Rybakina holds a 2-0 advantage over Zheng, but it’s been over a year since they last met, and Zheng is a different player. This match should feature a low average rally length as both players go for power early. Because Elena has been out of the mix, I see Zheng hitting with more precision. Zheng in 3.
Orange Group
It’s new coach apalooza at the 2024 WTA Finals. After skipping the Asian swing for personal reasons, Swiatek returns to defend last year’s WTA Finals crown alongside new coach Wim Fisette. Gauff has added Matt Daly to her coaching team after parting ways with Brad Gilbert. Swiatek owns a commanding 11-1 record against Gauff, but at least they’ve had a break from each other, not having met since Roland Garros. Coco’s one win against Iga was on hard court (2023 Cincinnati). This would be the time to catch Iga– when she’s not match-sharp and early in a coaching change. Unfortunately, Gauff is also working out the kinks. Her double faults and service game in general are not yet where she wants. Swiatek in 3.
The Swiatek Pegula H2H is 6-4 in favor of Iga. That’s not a bad record for Jess. Her straight sets win over Swiatek at this year’s US Open was a signature for the blistering baseliner. Alas, Pegula played poorly on the Asia swing. I see Swiatek with a little more pep in her step, plus she’s got the experience of Fisette in her corner. Swiatek in 3.
Since winning Wimbledon, Krejikova has played mostly doubles, and she’s not even competing in doubles here. Her singles results have been subpar. Interestingly, her record against Swiatek is 2-2, including their last 2 meetings. I like Barbora’s serve in these conditions. This is a very tough call, but on a faster court, Iga has less time to wind up her forehand. Krejikova in 3.
Sometime doubles partners and good friends Pegula and Gauff rarely make for a good match. Pegula has the head-to-head 4-1. Gauff’s only win happened on grass. Pegula is a brilliant hard court player with the discipline to take advantage of a bucket of double faults by Gauff. Pegula in 3.
Interestingly, Krejikova and Gauff have only played once– at 2021 Roland Garros. Barbora won that match and went on to take the title. It’s not instructive because of the different surface and the time that has passed. I’ve got this match circled. I think Gauff could actually learn something from Krejikova’s pragmatism. She’s also got one of my favorite forehands on tour. It’s not the biggest, but technically it borrows elements from the modern ATP forehand. Krejikova in 3.
Pegula and Krejikova’s only meetings came in 2023, when they split matches. Barbora’s game has just a few more dimensions. She can employ the serve-and-volley, for example. This match might have the longest rallies of the tournament, and even though JPeg is loathe to miss first, Barbora’s serve and problem-solving is ever-so-slightly better. She’s a 2-time Grand Slam champ, so she must be doing something right. Barbora in 3.
2024 WTA Finals Preview Players to Watch:
Group: Sabalenka, Zheng, Swiatek, Krejikova
SF: Sabalenka, Swiatek
F: Sabalenka