Wild Card Weekend unfolded perfectly to set up a Divisional Round matchup between NFL MVP candidates Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Next Sunday’s bout between the Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills should be the best game of the Divisional Round. With a trip to the AFC Championship Game and legacies at stake for both quarterbacks, just a few matchups will determine who comes out on top. Here are four matchups to watch in Sunday’s Ravens vs Bills game.
Buffalo Bills run defense vs Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson
The run options with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry devastated the Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense (267 rushing yards and 6.5 yards-per-carry average) in the Wild Card Round. In the last Ravens vs Bills meeting, Buffalo’s defense (253 rushing yards and 8.4 ypc) experienced a similar fate. Buffalo has since got All-Pro linebacker Matt Milano back, but this will still be an uphill battle.
- Buffalo Bills run defense: 115.5 rush ypg allowed (12th), 4.5 yards per carry allowed (21st), 37.7% Rush Success rate allowed (12th)
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- Baltimore Ravens rushing stats: 187.6 rush ypg (1st), 5.8 yards per carry (1st), 49.4% Rush Success rate (2nd)
While it’s highly unlikely Baltimore rushes for over 270-plus yards against Buffalo, 150-plus yards is doable. If Sean McDermott emphasizes stopping the run and the Bills overcommit to it, Jackson’s effectiveness on play-action (15-1 TD-INT ratio, 72.3% completion rate and 135.4 QB rating) would then put this Bills’ secondary in a vulnerable spot.
Nate Wiggins vs Keon Coleman
Josh Allen is exceptional at spreading the football around. While the Amari Cooper trade didn’t necessarily produce the WR1 stats the Buffalo Bills wanted, it made this receiving corps vastly better. Baltimore will have the ability with Marlon Humphrey to contain Khalil Shakir, while whoever Buffalo lines up versus outside corner Brandon Stephens (106.1 QB rating allowed in coverage) will have the advantage,
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With both teams having an edge in a few individual matchups, this sets up for Nate Wiggins vs Keon Coleman to be the proverbial tiebreaker. Keon Coleman (15.2 average depth of target) can provide a big play downfield, but Wiggins does have the speed (4.28-second 40-yard dash) and length to keep up with him. Whichever rookie wins the battle could have a significant influence on which team comes out on top.
Buffalo Bills’ pass rush vs Baltimore Ravens offensive line
If Buffalo can’t generate a consistent pass rush on Lamar Jackson, its season is over. The Ravens quarterback enters the Divisional Round with the highest QB rating (131.8), PFF grade (96.5) and yards per attempt (9.9) from a clean pocket. Buffalo knows that first-hand as he posted a 149.6 QB rating, 86.7% completion rate and 10.4 ypa with 2 touchdowns from a clean pocket in their last meeting during the regular season.
- Buffalo Bills pass rush: 23.6% pressure rate (10th), 8.9% hurry rate (7th), 45% ESPN pass-rush win rate (6th)
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- Baltimore Ravens offensive line: 70% ESPN pass-block win rate (3rd), 85.3 PFF Pass Blocking Efficiency (16th)
All of this puts a lot of pressure on Greg Rousseau, Von Miller and Ed Oliver to get home. However, Ravens left tackle Ronnie Stanley has been excellent in pass protection this season. Meanwhile, rookie Roger Rosengarten is coming off a great performance against T.J. Watt. Buffalo also has one of the lowest blitz rates in the NFL and that’s unlikely to change given Jackson’s success when blitzed.
Ravens’ defensive tackles vs Bills’ interior line
Buffalo has the advantage on the perimeter with Dion Dawks and Spencer Brown well-equipped to handle the Ravens’ edge rusher. Where things get interesting is on the interior. While center Connor McGovern has been sharp in pass protection this year (95% pass-block win rate), guards David Edwards (25 pressures allowed) and O’Cyrus Torrence (37 pressures allowed) are weak links. Few quarterbacks are better than Allen at avoiding pressure, but dominance up front by Ravens interior defensive linemen Nnamdi Madubuike and Travis Jones could cause real problems for Buffalo.
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