The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.
However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. Our NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.
While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA’s official injury report.
Today’s Best NBA Bets and Player Props
Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat
Heat Over 115.5 Points (-110)
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The Miami Heat have been playing some mid basketball over their last 10 games. That should be good enough to get it done opposite the Chicago Bulls‘ defense, though.
Chicago’s poor defensive standard hasn’t changed much in this time frame, ceding a 117.4 defensive rating (DRTG) along with playing at the Association’s sixth-quickest pace. They’re a bottom-10 club in paint points (52.6) and points off turnovers (18.7) allowed per game over their last 10, as well.
Dealing with a rash of injuries, Miami’s rhythm has resulted in a 114.9 offensive rating (ORTG) in their last 10 tilts. This is a gigantic pace-up spot for them compared to league’s slowest tempo (95.2) in this period.
DRatings has Miami at 116.9 median points tonight. This line feels a smidge low — especially since Andrew Wiggins (ankle) has a real chance to return on the second leg of a back-to-back.
Orlando Magic at Milwaukee Bucks
Franz Wagner Over 5.5 Rebounds (+110)
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Speaking of upgrades in tempo, the Orlando Magic will certainly get one tonight.
Their 97.2 pace in the last 10 games meets the Milwaukee Bucks‘ 102.9 mark, providing nearly as wide a margin as possible in the NBA. I’d love to take advantage of that with a team total, but Orlando’s firmly on the struggle bus with a 110.1 ORTG in this time.
Instead, that increase in possessions might be best targeted by Franz Wagner‘s rebounding prop. The do-it-all forward’s breakout campaign has seen him post 5.9 rebounds per 36 minutes in a vacuum, and Milwaukee allows the sixth-most rebounds per game to the small forward spot (8.1). They’re even smaller in light of Bobby Portis‘ suspension.
FanDuel Research’s NBA projections expect 6.1 median boards from Wagner tonight, meaning we’d have expected closer to -133 odds on his chances to collect at least six.
Detroit Pistons at Golden State Warriors
Under 237.5 Points (-110)
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Before the Jimmy Butler deal, this line would have been unthinkable for these teams. It’ll still be a challenge.
Since the deadline, the Detroit Pistons catching fire is an even larger surprise, and this line is high because Detroit leads the NBA in pace (103.3) over their last 10 games. Personally, I’m citing the competition given six meetings with the Bulls, Utah Jazz, Denver Nuggets, Atlanta Hawks, and San Antonio Spurs in this stretch.
Overall, Detroit’s 100.2 pace this season isn’t special with minimal roster shifts. Golden State’s pace with Butler (99.7) isn’t, either.
Especially since these are two of the league’s top-three DRTGs since the deadline, I’m selling this recent uptick in possessions for the Pistons. It’ll be hard to make shots on the road against the Dubs, and the Motors’ defense is no pushover, either.
DRatings expects just 228.9 median points here.
Los Angeles Lakers at Boston Celtics
Lakers +7.5 (-110)
Jayson Tatum Under 26.5 Points (-112)
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At this point, I’m trusting JJ Redick.
The Los Angeles Lakers seem wholly down on surrounding talent to compete with the league’s top teams, and then Redick holds the Nuggets to 100 points in primetime two weeks ago. L.A.’s DRTG is 106.9 — best in the NBA — since Doncic showed up. Covering seven against a struggling, injury-nagged Boston Celtics squad is more than achievable.
We’ll see if the Avengers suit up in whole with Jrue Holiday (hand) and Kristaps Porzingis (illness) largely out of the lineup all week. Jaxson Hayes (knee) is also questionable for the Lakers. All are listed on FanDuel for props, implying hopes of a fully-contested “Game of the Year”.
With that the case, L.A.’s +7.9 net rating (NRTG) is in Boston’s zip code (+10.1) since acquiring Doncic. This is too many points — likely due to the Celtics +7.0 NRTG differential over L.A. for the entire season.
DRatings has this spread at just 5.2 median points.
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One of the reasons why Boston might struggle to cover is Jayson Tatum‘s recent struggles.
Tatum is shooting just 47.4% in March — and 33.3% from deep. Encounters with the Nuggets and Philadelphia 76ers‘ flailing defenses don’t make that feel better.
Overall, Tatum just doesn’t have an extremely large piece of this Boston pie. In the team’s last 15 contests, his usage rate (31.7%) isn’t in another galaxy from Jaylen Brown‘s (28.4%), Porzingis’ (25.2%), or Derrick White‘s (21.3%).
A narrative against his childhood team is driving this line, but we’ve got him only projected for 24.8 median points on Saturday.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.