In less than four months, the 2024 college football season will be underway. The landscape is considerably different, as one of the venerable leagues in this sport, the Pac-12, has vanished, its teams scattered to the Big Ten, the Big 12, and even the ACC, making that conference a league that literally stretches from one coast to the other. One of the sports betting props where you can find the most imbalance at this point is the win total. There’s a lot that no one really knows about these teams, even after the spring game. The teams at the top of the sport don’t offer a lot of value. After all, what’s the benefit of an 11 ½-win total in a 12-game regular season? It just takes one bad bounce to push that to the “under,” a position that likely didn’t offer a lot of value in the first place. However, there are other positions where you can find (and take advantage of) imbalance in the lines. Read on to get our top NCAAF Odds and suggestions.
A Look at Early College Football Best Over/Under Win Total Bets
UCLA Bruins NCAAF Odds 5.5 wins
Non-Conference Games: at Hawai’i, at LSU, vs Fresno State
Toughest Conference Games: vs Oregon, at Penn State, at Washington, USC
The Bruins make their Big Ten debut without having to play Ohio State, Michigan or Wisconsin. After October 19, they only have one road game, and they get to play USC, Iowa and Oregon at home. The team saw head coach Chip Kelly not only go to another Big Ten school (Ohio State) but he took a demotion to do it, taking the offensive coordinator job. Two of those non-conference games are winnable, although Fresno State could be scary. Getting much of the underbelly of the Big Ten in Year One isn’t bad at all.
NCAAF Pick: Take the over
Rutgers Scarlet Knights NCAAF Odds 6.5 wins
Non-Conference Games: vs Howard, vs Akron, at Virginia Tech
Toughest Conference Games: vs Washington, UCLA, at USC, at Michigan State
Here’s a Big Ten schedule that doesn’t include Penn State, Ohio State, or Michigan. It also doesn’t include Oregon or Iowa. It does include three West Coast teams, but the Scarlet Knights have three of their first four Big Ten games at home. The Scarlet Knights have a scary home non-conference game against Akron, who almost beat Indiana a year ago. That trip to Virginia Tech is a foray into one of the tough road environments. Yes, Greg Schiano is back building a decent team at Rutgers, and they did have a winning season in 2023 that included a bowl victory. However, they haven’t hit seven regular-season wins in 10 years.
NCAAF Pick: Take the under
USC Trojans NCAAF Odds 7.5 wins
Non-Conference Games: vs LSU (in Las Vegas), vs Utah State, vs Notre Dame
Toughest Conference Games: at Michigan, Wisconsin, at Washington, at UCLA
USC didn’t get any favors from the schedule-makers in their first Big Ten campaign. It’s true that they don’t play Ohio State or Penn State, but going to Ann Arbor and the Rose Bowl will make this a challenging slate. Utah State is a nice cushion in Week 2, but the other two non-conference games both represent elite competition. On the good side, USC doesn’t have back-to-back road games at all in 2024. They also play in Los Angeles after November 2 and only face two true road games after October 5. We know the offense will be terrific, but that defense. Lincoln Riley doesn’t really believe that defense is essential. We’ve heard that the unit will be better, but we will believe that when we see it
NCAAF Pick: Take the under
Boston College Eagles NCAAF Odds 4.5 wins
Non-Conference Games: vs Duquesne, at Missouri, vs Western Kentucky, vs Michigan State
Toughest Conference Games: at Florida State, at Virginia Tech, at SMU, North Carolina
The non-conference schedule isn’t easy. A trip to Missouri, where the Tigers are a mid-tier SEC threat, followed by a home date with a Michigan State team that can show up on occasion. Western Kentucky runs a high-octane offense that will push the Eagles. They don’t have to play Clemson or Miami in ACC play, which is a good thing. The Eagles beat SMU, last year’s AAC champions, on a rainy day at the Fenway Bowl, and now they welcome Bill O’Brien as head coach. That’s the same Bill O’Brien who worked as Nick Saban’s OC at Alabama and who led the Houston Texans to multiple AFC South titles, so the program will be solid.
NCAAF Pick: Take the over
Kansas State Wildcats NCAAF Odds 9.5 wins
Non-Conference Games: vs UT-Martin, at Tulane, vs Arizona
Toughest Conference Games: at BYU, vs Oklahoma State, at West Virginia, at Iowa State
The game against Arizona is technically a non-conference game even though Arizona joins the Big 12 this year. The trip to Tulane won’t be an easy one – that is the AAC runner-up from a year ago, with an offense that can be dangerous through the air or on the ground. The Wildcats also miss Texas Tech and Baylor this time around. However, trips to BYU, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State and West Virginia are all potential problems. They do get Kansas and Oklahoma State. Without Texas and Oklahoma, this is a much less impressive football conference, but there is a lot of parity.
NCAAF Pick: Take the under
Ohio State Buckeyes NCAAF Odds 10.5 wins
Non-Conference Games: vs Akron, vs Western Michigan, vs Marshall
Toughest Conference Games: at Michigan State, at Oregon, at Penn State, vs Michigan
It’s nice to have a schedule with just four road games. It’s also nice to have a Big Ten slate that doesn’t have USC, UCLA, Washington or Wisconsin. The rest of the Big Ten slate looks like its usual path to a conference title game. Two of the best games of the season will feature Ohio State at Oregon and then Ohio State at Penn State. The season-ending game with Michigan could be a bit of a letdown if the Wolverines falter after seeing Jim Harbaugh go back to the NFL just in time to avoid a show-cause penalty. The non-conference schedule is a trio of tomato cans. Yes, Akron did almost beat Indiana last year, but Indiana (and Rutgers) are not Ohio State. If this total sat at 11 ½, I would walk away from it or choose the under if I had to. However, Ohio State can still lose one of these big games and finish over. I don’t see the Buckeyes dropping more than one of these contests.
NCAAF Pick: Take the over
Minnesota Golden Gophers NCAAF Odds 4.5 wins
Non-Conference Games: vs North Carolina, vs Rhode Island, vs Nevada
Toughest Conference Games: vs Iowa, at Michigan, USC, Penn State, at Wisconsin
If the Golden Gophers are going to stack up wins, they’ll need to do it early. They only have one road game before the middle of October. The Gophers do avoid Ohio State, Oregon and Washington. That game against North Carolina was a loss last year on the road. However, the last time Minnesota didn’t get to five regular-season wins was back in 2011, and North Carolina has to work in a new quarterback. That means the Gophers only have to win twice in Big Ten play to get over this total.
NCAAF Pick: Take the over
UCF Knights NCAAF Odds 8.5 wins
Non-Conference Games: vs New Hampshire, vs Sam Houston, at Florida
Toughest Conference Games: vs Colorado, at Iowa State, vs BYU, vs Arizona, at West Virginia, Utah
The Knights don’t play Baylor, Houston or Texas Tech. They do have to go to TCU, but the Horned Frogs have fallen far off their perch from two years ago. Utah should be the top team in the conference, but they have to travel to Florida. Home games against several other Big 12 contenders are nice features. The non-conference slate features a pair of cupcakes at home but also has an intriguing in-state matchup againstj a rising Florida team. The Knights should be better than they were a year ago, when their Big 12 debut involved a lot of beatings. However, getting nine wins out of this schedule seems a bit much.
NCAAF Pick: Take the under
College Football Kick Off Schedule
Week Zero: Saturday, Aug. 24
• Florida State vs. Georgia Tech (in Dublin, Ireland)
• Norfolk State vs. Florida A&M
• SMU at Nevada
• Montana State at New Mexico
• Delaware State at Hawaii
Week 1: Thursday, Aug. 29 to Sunday, Sept. 1
• North Carolina at Minnesota
• Clemson vs. Georgia
• Miami (FL) at Florida
• Notre Dame at Texas A&M
• Penn State at West Virginia
• Georgia State at Georgia Tech
• North Dakota State at Colorado
• South Dakota State at Oklahoma State
• LSU vs. Southern California
• North Carolina Central vs. Alabama State
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