2024 Kentucky Derby Longshot Picks

Kentucky Derby contender Just Steel on the track for a workout Thursday morning at Churchill Downs April 25, 2024 in Louisville, Ky. Trainer for Just Steel is D. Wayne Lukas. It’s Lukas’ first Derby since 2018. He’s won four Kentucky Derbys, six Preakness Stakes and four Belmont Stakes.

• The 150th Kentucky Derby takes place Saturday, May 4 from Churchill Downs
• Two longshots have won the Run for the Roses since 2019: Country House at 30/1 and Rich Strike at 80/1
• Read below for the 2024 Kentucky Derby longshot picks and trends ahead of the most exciting two minutes in sports

Everyone loves an underdog, and that is exactly what you get when betting on a Kentucky Derby longshot. They have worse odds than favorites like Fierceness and Dornoch, but the payouts can be much more substantial.

There are plenty of ways to bet on the Kentucky Derby, so sports bettors that are either looking to bet on horse racing for the first time or want a refresher should check out our horse racing guide to see how to bet on the Kentucky Derby.

Kentucky Derby Longshots

This year is an especially great year to give some of the longshots a look. The latest Kentucky Derby odds list Fierceness as the 5/2 favorite, but there are some trends that go against him winning. First, Fierceness has never won back to back races in his career, so while he is fresh off a record-breaking performance at the the Florida Derby, history suggests another horse will win Saturday evening.

Fierceness will also be running from the No. 16 post position, which has a win rate of 7.8% and has seen four winners since 1930. It is not the worst draw the favorite could have had, but it certainly did not do him any favors.

So with that all being said, let’s take a look at some of the horses that have at least 20/1 odds who have the best chance of pulling off an upset at the 2024 Kentucky Derby.

West Saratoga is a Great Story

West Saratoga is one of the most experienced horses in the field and has 50/1 odds to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby, which means a $20 wager would result in a $1,000 win. His trainer, Larry Demmeritte, is a veteran who is making his first appearance at Churchill Downs. Demmeritte is known for buying horses at a cheaper price later in auctions, and he purchased West Saratoga for $11,000. Demmeritte has been in horse racing for a while, but he has never had a horse as great as West Saratoga. Demmeritte has been battling cancer, but that will not stop him from enjoying his time at Churchill Downs.

West Saratoga will be racing from the No. 12 post position on Saturday, and while he is not the fastest horse, he has won or placed in eight of his last nine starts. He is also no stranger to being an underdog, as he had 36/1 odds in his last race at the Jeff Ruby Stakes. West Saratoga might not have won, but he ran one of his fastest races and finished second to qualify for the 2024 Kentucky Derby. Even if he does not have the legs to win this race, Demmeritte and West Saratoga have already become fan favorites.

Even though West Saratoga is not my favorite longshot pick, if you like him to win, be sure to checkout the best horse racing betting sites to lock in your bet.

Dornoch Has Championship DNA

Dornoch has 20/1 odds to win the Kentucky Derby and has champion in his blood, as he is the direct brother of last year’s Kentucky Derby champion, Mage. They are the offspring of Good Magic, who had a second-place finish at the Kentucky Derby, and Puca, whose sire won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. Dornoch becomes just the 31st horse to have a full sibling start the Derby. Four of them have been winners.

Before a fourth-place finish at the 2024 Bluegrass Stakes, Dornoch won three races in a row. He also has two second-place finishes on his resume. He is in a prime bounce-back spot in this year’s Kentucky Derby. He will be running from the first post position, which has not been a great spot historically, but it does give him the shortest path to the finish line.

What makes Dornoch a true longshot pick worth looking at is the fact that he has already beaten Sierra Leone, who has the second-best odds to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby. In fact, Dornoch is the only horse to beat Sierra Leone. It was on a muddy Aqueduct track in Queens, but it was still a victory nonetheless. The forecast on Saturday has a slight chance of rain, so if the track does get muddy, Dornoch has experience running through the mud.

Just Steel Has Momentum

Just Steel is also 20/1 to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby. He is one of the most experienced in the 20-horse field as he has 11 starts. Just Steel is fresh off a second-place finish at the Arkansas Derby and has finished in second or better in four of his last five races. His second-place finish at the Arkansas Derby was an impressive one, as it was the fastest of his career. He lost to Muth, who is not racing in the Kentucky Derby this year, but is trained by Bob Baffert and is the current favorite to win the 2024 Preakness Stakes.

Just Steel does not just have overall horse racing experience through his 11 races, but he also has experience at Churchill Downs. He has raced at Churchill Downs twice and has a first-place finish and a third-place finish in those two starts. Just Steel is trained by D. Wayne Lucas, who has won the Kentucky Derby four times. Just Steel has the speed to pull off the upset, so now it is only a matter of execution, and I trust a horse that has been trained by Lucas.

2024 Kentucky Derby Longshot Pick: Just Steel (+2000)

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