Beginning at noon today, the first of 20 games of a mad scramble will take place. The Division I conference tournament season begins, with the goal of finding out which teams will join already-qualified Boston College in the NCAA Division I women’s lacrosse championship.
What we know is that 14 teams will be winning Automatic Qualifier (AQ) berths in a 29-team bracket. A number of other teams will see their seasons end today. A number of others will be hoping that their regular-season bona fides will be enough to be chosen for one of 14 at-large berths.
Now, we’ve seen enough twists and turns in the tale of how the bracket gets set up. While this site has done pretty well at guessing the NCAA Division I field hockey bracket, we’ve not been as fortunate at setting up the women’s lacrosse bracket. Of course, it’s a fair bit larger than its sister sport in the fall.
But we also seem to notice that the Ratings Percentage Index doesn’t seem to be the primary indicator of who’s going on and who’s going home. We’ve seen really good sides not make the bracket in the last few years, and this year may be no different.
So, let’s break down what we think will happen, by the number of teams who are likely to make the tourney:
FIVE BIDS
ACC and Big Ten
Boston College, of course, is in. Northwestern, no matter what it does, will be the No. 1 overall seed. After that, it’s a numbers jumble. For the Big Ten, Maryland, Michigan, and Johns Hopkins are definitely in. Penn State is very much a bubble team, but is likely to make it in. Rutgers has to win the tournament in order to qualify. As for the ACC, Syracuse, Virginia, and Notre Dame will join Boston College. North Carolina, with a 10-6 record, is on the bubble — something we never thought we’d say in the history of ever. However, I think the Heels are in.
FOUR BIDS
Ivy League
Pennsylvania and Yale are locks no matter what they do. Princeton is a strong team in many of their metrics, and I think will make it as an at-large. Brown, a strong side, has a chance to win the tournament and wreck a lot of prognosticators’ predictions.
TWO BIDS
American, and CAA
The thing is here, the two bids for each of these two conference are likely the predictable ones. In the AAC, Florida and James Madison are definites no matter what they do, I think. For the CAA, Stony Brook is in no matter what they do, and Drexel has had success in recent years, but is perhaps the one team that could find itself on on the outside looking in if it does not make the tournament final
ONE and ONE-HALF BIDS
Patriot and PAC-12
Why 1 1/2 bids? I think it’s possible that worthy teams will find themselves on the outside looking in if other teams from power conferences are able to have a good run of form in their respective tournaments. In the Patriot, Loyola is in, but a good Naval Academy side may have to wait for Selection Sunday nervously to see if their name is called. The same goes for the loser of the Pac-12 final. Stanford is the better-ranked side, but USC or Colorado could very well make it in as an at-large
ONE BID
Atlantic 10, Metro-Atlantic, America East, Atlantic Sun, Big South, Northeast, Mid-American
In other words, everyone else. Only the champions will make it into the bracket.
Best of luck to everyone in their quest to extend their season just one more game.