Apr 10, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) calls out in the second half against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
- The Denver Nuggets host the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 1 of their best-of-seven second-round series on May 4
- The teams split their four regular-season meetings, each going 1-1 at home
- See the Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets odds, predictions, props & injury news for Saturday
For the second straight season, the Minnesota Timberwolves (60-26, 28-15 away, 44-40-2 ATS) and Denver Nuggets (61-26, 36-8 home, 39-47-1 ATS) will meet in the NBA playoffs. Game 1 of the best-of-seven second-round series goes Saturday night at Ball Arena in Denver (5:10 pm MT/7:10 pm ET) and the Nuggets are sizable home favorites to take an early lead in the series.
The Timberwolves vs Nuggets odds list Denver as a 4.5-point home favorite and -185 on the moneyline.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Game 1 Odds
| Team | Â Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Timberwolves | +155 | +4.5 (-110) | O 208.5 (-110) |
| Denver Nuggets | -185 | -4.5 (-110) | U 208.5 (-110) |
The Timberwolves come back as +154 road underdogs to win in Saturday’s NBA odds, while the game total is sitting at 208.5.
Odds as of May 4 at Fanatics. Claim the Fanatics Sportsbook promo.Â
Denver is a -205 favorite to win the series with Minnesota at +170. The winner of the Minnesota/Denver series will advance in the NBA playoff bracket to face the winner of the Mavericks/Thunder in the Western Conference final.
The Nuggets are currently +120 favorites to win the West for a second straight season in the NBA conference odds with the T-Wolves at +400.
T-Wolves vs Nuggets Betting Trends
Minnesota swept the Suns in the first round, winning by an average of ten points per game and covering the spread in all four victories. Anthony Edwards was outstanding against Phoenix, averaging 31 points and eight rebounds per game on 51.2% shooting from the field.
Led by 11.0 RPG from Rudy Gobert,the T-Wolves dominated the glass against the Suns, grabbing 58.2% of all available rebounds (best in the NBA playoffs).
The four T-Wolves/Suns game averaged 221.5 PPG and three of the four cashed the over.
After sweeping the Lakers in the Western Conference finals last season, the Nuggets turned aside LeBron James and company again in the first round of the 2024 playoffs, though they weren’t nearly as dominant this time around. While Denver won the series 4-1, the Nuggets only managed to cover the spread in Games 1 and 3. Four of the five games in the series stayed under the total, averaging 215 points per game.
Presumptive NBA MVP Nikola Jokic was, as usual, outstanding in nearly every facet of the game. Jokic averaged a team-high 28.2 points, 16.2 rebounds, and 9.8 assists per game in the Lakers series. Jamal Murray (23.6 PPG) and Michael Porter Jr (22.8 PPG) added valuable secondary scoring.
The Nuggets and T-Wolves split their four games during the regular season, each winning once on the road. The most-recent game was a 116-107 Nugget victory in Denver on April 10, in which Jokic dropped 41 points and 11 rebounds. Edwards led the T-Wolves with 25 points while Gobert had a game-high 15 boards.
Minnesota vs Denver Injury Reports for Game 1
Both teams enter the second round fairly healthy. The Nuggets’ injury report sees Jamal Murray (21.2 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 6.5 APG in the regular season) listed as questionable with a calf injury. Collin Gillespie (3.6 PPG) is out with an ankle injury.
The T-Wolves’ injury report only has one name on it: rookie Jaylen Clark, who spent this season in the G-League.
The NBA public betting splits are almost evenly split for Game 1 when it comes to the spread. Minnesota is currently getting 51% of ATS handle as of 10:40 am ET. But the same can’t be said of the moneyline, where Denver is getting 63% of handle, or the total, where 95% of money is on over 208.5.
MIN vs DEN Player Props
| Player | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Three-Pointers Made |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Gordon (DEN) | 13.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110) | 7.5 (Ov +120 | Un -142) | 4.5 (Ov +124 | Un -148) | 0.5 (Ov -100 | Un -120) |
| Anthony Edwards (MIN) | 27.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115) | 5.5 (Ov -125 | Un +105) | 5.5 (Ov -118 | Un -102) | 2.5 (Ov -108 | Un -112) |
| Jaden McDaniels (MIN) | 9.5 (Ov -102 | Un -118) | 3.5 (Ov +105| Un -125) | OFF | 0.5 (Ov -162 | Un +136) |
| Jamal Murray (DEN) | 23.5 (Ov -100 | Un -120) | 4.5 (Ov +124 | Un -148) | 6.5 (Ov -130 | Un +110) | 2.5 (Ov -115 | Un -105) |
| Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) | 18.5 (Ov -108 | Un -112) | 7.5 (Ov -118 | Un -102) | 2.5 (Ov +114 | Un -135) | 1.5 (Ov -155 | Un +130) |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DEN) | 8.5 (Ov -115 | Un -105) | 2.5 (Ov +140 | Un -166) | OFF | 1.5 (Ov -125 | Un +105) |
| Michael Porter Jr (MIN) | 17.5 (Ov -118 | Un -102) | 7.5 (Ov +102 | Un -122) | OFF | 2.5 (Ov -148 | Un +124) |
| Mike Conley (MIN) | 11.5 (Ov +102 | Un -122) | 2.5 (Ov -148 | Un +124) | 5.5 (Ov -135 | Un +114) | 2.5 (Ov +145 | Un -175) |
| Naz Reid (MIN) | 8.5 (Ov -112 | Un -108) | 2.5 (Ov -166 | Un +140) | OFF | 1.5 (Ov +102 | Un -125) |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker (MIN) | 7.5 (Ov -122 | Un +102) | 2.5 (Ov +154 | Un -185) | 2.5 (Ov +145 | Un -175) | 1.5 (Ov -102 | Un -118) |
| Nikola Jokic (DEN) | 27.5 (Ov -122 | Un +102) | 12.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110) | 8.5 (Ov -130 | Un +110) | 1.5 (Ov -120 | Un -166) |
| Rudy Gobert (MIN) | 13.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115) | 13.5 (Ov -108 | Un -112) | OFF | OFF |
NBA player props as of May 4 at DraftKings.Â
Jokic and Edwards are tied with a game-high point total of 27.5 while Jamal Murray (23.5) is also over the 20-point plateau despite being questionable with a calf injury. Gobert leads the rebound totals at 13.5 followed closely by Jokic at 12.5. Jokic also has the highest assist total on the board at 8.5.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets Game 1 Prediction
Minnesota was arguably the most-impressive team in the first round while sweeping Kevin Durant and the Suns. Detractors will say the Suns were discombobulated but I chalk up the sweep more to Minnesota’s defense than Phoenix’s shortcomings. The T-Wolves finished the regular season ranked first in the NBA in D-Rating (108.4) and both losses to Denver in the regular season were by single digits.
I expect a hard-fought Game 1 that’s close throughout and the T-Wolves to cover the not-insignificant spread. I am also targeting the under on Jokic’s assist (8.5) total at plus-money. In four games against Minnesota in the regular season, Jokic averaged just 4.3 assists per game and never recorded more than seven.
MIN vs DEN Game 1 picks:
- Timberwolves +4.5 (-110)
- Jokic under 8.5 assists (+110)
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Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.