Jul 5, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Bryson Stott (5) steals second past Atlanta Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies (1) in the seventh inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
- NL East heavyweights Philadelphia and Atlanta meet in the rubber match of a three-game set on Sunday
- The Phillies send rookie Michael Mercado to the mound opposite NL Cy Young-contender Reynaldo Lopez
- See the Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves odds, predictions, and picks for July 7
Already nine games up on the Atlanta Braves (48-39, 28-17 home) in the NL East standings, the Philadelphia Phillies (58-31, 25-17 away) can consolidate their lead with a series win at their division rival on Sunday afternoon at Truist Park (1:35 pm ET).
The Phillies took the first game of the series (8-6) but were shut down by rookie hurler Spencer Schwellenbach last night in a 5-1 Atlanta victory.
On Sunday, it’s the Phillies who give the ball to a rookie – Michael Mercado – while the Braves counter with veteran Reynaldo Lopez, who’s enjoying a career year in his first season with Atlanta.
It’s not often Philly is a significant underdog this season, but that is the case in the Phillies vs Braves odds for Sunday in light of the discrepancy in pitching experience.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies (M. Mercado) | +140 | +1.5 (-148) | O 8.5 (-102) |
| Atlanta Braves (R. Lopez) | -166 | -1.5 (+124) | U 8.5 (-118) |
Atlanta is a -166 home favorite in the final game of the series and +124 to win by multiple runs. The Phillies come back as +140 road underdogs and are sitting at -148 on the runline to keep it within a run. The over/under is 8.5 with the under slightly favored at -118.
Odds as of July 7 at DraftKings. Download the top MLB betting apps to wager on Sunday’s action.Â
Despite boasting the best record in baseball, the Phillies (+500) remain second in the World Series odds to the LA Dodgers (+320). Atlanta, which started the season vying with the Yankees for second-favorite, have faded to fifth at +900.
PHI vs ATL Starting Pitchers for July 7
A former second-round pick of the Rays in 2017, the 25-year-old Mercado has already undergone Tommy John surgery. Finally healthy, the 6’4 righty has impressed in his first two appearances in the majors. He pitched one shutout inning in relief against Detroit on June 24 (no hits, no walks, one strikeout) and he lasted 5.0 innings against the Cubs in his first career start on July 2, surrendering just one run on two hits and two walks with four Ks in a 6-4 Philly victory.
He’s never faced anyone in the Braves lineup during his brief tenure in the majors.
Michael Mercado vs Reynaldo Lopez
| 1-0 | Record | 6-2 |
| 1.50 | ERA | 1.83 |
| 1.95 | xERA | 4.31 |
| 0.67 | WHIP | 1.15 |
| 22.7% | K% | 25.8% |
Reynaldo Lopez has been a stalwart of a banged-up Atlanta rotation this season, sporting a 6-2 record with a dazzling 1.83 ERA. His excellent first half of the season has vaulted him into the mix in the NL Cy Young odds, where he currently sits sixth at +2800.
Yet, Lopez’s peripherals suggest he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball this year: he has an xERA of 4.31 and an xFIP of 3.82.
Though this is Lopez’s first start against the Phillies this year and this is his first season in the National League, there’s a sizable history between the nine-year veteran and the Phillies hitters, and it’s not great for Lopez. In 91 total at-bats, the Philly batters have a .319 average and .882 OPS against the 6’1 righty.
Lopez has also looked shaky, in general, over his last two starts. He’s managed to go 9.1 innings combined but with eight hits and eight walks – which amounts to a 1.758 WHIP – and four earned runs.
Phillies vs Braves Picks & Predictions
The Phillies have the best record and best run differential in all of baseball and, on Sunday, get to face a starter they’re more than comfortable against. Mercado is certainly a question mark, but he has a very talented arm (average fastball velocity of 95.7 MPH) and has the advantage of facing the Atlanta lineup for the first time.
At +140, the Phillies have just a 41.67% implied win probability, which is an excellent moneyline price on Philadelphia to win this game and another series in the process, which would make them 5-0-1 in their last six series.
PHI vs ATL picks: Phillies moneyline (+140)
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.