Heading into the Big Ten, USC fans expect their team to be nationally relevant. While the expectations might not be to win a national championship in 2024, that was certainly in the cards, at least in the near future, when they hired Lincoln Riley back in 2021. The Trojan fanbase expects conference championships and Rose Bowl appearances—that’s just the honest truth.
We’re not far removed from Riley being touted as one of the best coaches in college football, with his name being thrown around with a handful of others like Kirby Smart, Nick Saban, and Dabo Swinney. If you’d asked Colin Cowherd ahead of the 2022 season, he’d have told you Riley would have led the Trojans to multiple College Football Playoff appearances by this point.
Based on his incredible success at Oklahoma, Riley was made out to be the next great head coach in college football — and while his offensive acumen stands with the best of them, his time as a standalone head coach is starting to draw a lot of questions from a growing crowd of unbelievers.
It All Started with the Brisket
Ahead of his final season at Oklahoma, Lincoln Riley hosted an Easter event at his home and prepared a meal that included his attempt at a brisket.
Unfortunately for Riley, the brisket looked dryer than sawdust, and he’s been hearing about it ever since.
In fact, at Big Ten Media Days, one of the first questions that Riley was asked was if he was still working on his BBQ skills in LA.
While that question was asked in jest, there were some questions that Riley faced on Wednesday that seemed to be a little more sensitive.
One of them was a request for a response to what Oklahoma athletic director Joe Castiglione said earlier this month about “the (Oklahoma) coaches that weren’t (excited about joining SEC) aren’t here anymore.”
Riley’s response?
“I’m not getting into that. Next question.”
To be fair, what was he supposed to say? “Yeah, I ran to the Pac-12 because I thought it would be easier to have success there, but here I am in the Big Ten.” That probably wouldn’t look too great coming from your head football coach.
However, it is beginning to look more and more like that could be exactly what happened. Not only is his former employer implying that Riley wasn’t excited about the move to the SEC, but it’s also been reported that he spent two years trying to get out of playing LSU to begin the 2024 season.
According to Saturday Down South, USC has spent the last two years trying to cancel the matchup because Riley didn’t want the game, which was scheduled a month before he took the job.
To make matters worse, there are several sources in and around Norman that said the Sooners’ pending move to the SEC played a major role in Riley’s departure.
From the standpoint of relative expectations, USC is unequivocally the easier job right now. Riley had the choice of leading Oklahoma — a team that had won six straight Big 12 titles — into the SEC, or go to USC and spend your summers on the beach getting paid double the salary (albeit paying double the taxes) and with much lower expectations since you were following up Clay Helton and not Bob Stoops.
At a place like USC, though, expectations will always have a baseline, and without a steady program already in place, it’s beginning to look like Riley might’ve bitten off more than he can chew.
Lincoln Riley: Football Coach, Pit Master… Magician?
When Riley first set up shop in The Coliseum, he was made out to be a magician.
Without him, Oklahoma football was supposed to perish, and with him, USC was set to recapture its glory from the Pete Carroll era. Through two seasons, Riley has gone 19-8. 11-3 in Year 1 and 8-5 in Year 2.
There are a select number of football programs around the country where expectations will always be “high,” and USC is one of them.
Along with Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Michigan, and Notre Dame, USC is one of college football’s “blue bloods,” and its long-standing tradition of success makes it one of the most sought-after jobs in the business.
While a national title isn’t the expectation in ’24, competing for a Big Ten title and being somewhere around the 9- or 10-win mark will be.
But, what if that doesn’t happen?
Yesterday, Riley took the stage for the first time as a member of the Big Ten Conference. During a media scrum, Riley commented that he’s “not a magician” when discussing the expectations placed on his program and how USC is supposed to get to the top of the Big Ten.
“We are at the top of the Big Ten conference,” Riley said. “We’re at the top of any conference. I don’t ever look at ourselves as below anybody, and I never will. Look where Ohio State and Oregon were two years ago. Look at what they took over and look at what we took over. It takes time. I’m not a magician. I can’t wave a magic wand and have everything be perfect right away. Find one area where we haven’t made progress.
“This thing’s got momentum. It’s coming. Nothing is going to stop it. That’s fine. They [Ohio State and Oregon] started at a different point. We’ll see where it ends up.”
What is appalling about Riley’s statement here is that he spent a year trying to convince everyone that he took the USC job because he felt like it was a better gig than what he had at Oklahoma, but now, he’s using revisionist history to paint a picture that he inherited the Kent State of the West Coast.
A Pivotal Year-Three Will Tell the Tale
The third year of a coach’s tenure is typically when the expectations are headed in an upward trajectory. Three years gives a head coach the time needed to get his roster, staff, and program in order, but after that, it’s time to see some results.
Even after a disappointing 7-5 regular season in Year 2, Riley suggests that his program is heading onward and upward. But, is that the case?
USC enters the 2024 season with a win total of 7.5 games and with a tough slate of opponents, including LSU, Michigan, Penn State, Washington, Nebraska, and Notre Dame, that could be a tough number to hit if the defense doesn’t turn things around in a hurry.
When Riley took over ahead of the 2022 season, he brought a future Heisman winner, quarterback Caleb Williams, with him. Immediately, the expectations for USC football went through the roof, as Riley’s incredible success at Oklahoma was just supposed to translate over with him.
What USC fans didn’t foresee — though many Sooner fans tried to warn them — is that with Riley’s offensive prowess, you also get his defensive ineptitude.
After inheriting a ready-made winner from Bob Stoops in Norman, Lincoln Riley took Oklahoma to four consecutive Big 12 titles, never losing more — or less — than two games in a single season, going 55-10 over five seasons.
Over those 10 losses, Riley’s Sooners allowed an average of 43.5 points per game while scoring 33.4 points per game.
Losses at Oklahoma (2017-2021)
- Iowa State 38, OU 31
- Georgia 54, OU 48
- Texas 48, OU 45
- Alabama 45, OU 34
- K-State 48, OU 41
- LSU 63, OU 28
- K-State 38, OU 31
- Iowa State 37, OU 31
- Baylor 27, OU 14
- OSU 37, OU 31
In two seasons as the head coach at USC, both of which had offenses built around a generational talent in Williams, Riley has managed a record of 19-8.
Over those eight losses, the Trojans have allowed an average of 43 points per game while scoring 31.5 points per game.
Losses at USC (2022-23)
- Utah 43, USC 42
- Utah 47, USC 24
- Tulane 46, USC 45
- Notre Dame 48, USC 20
- Utah 34, USC 32
- Washington 52, USC 42
- Oregon 36, USC 27
- UCLA 38, USC 20
Notice a trend?
The worst part of this for Riley is, he’s had elite quarterback play in every season of his coaching career to this point.
He went from Baker Mayfield to Kyler Murray, to Jalen Hurts, to Spencer Rattler, to Caleb Williams. All but one of those guys was named a Heisman finalist, and the one who wasn’t (Rattler) was a Freshman All-American and the favorite to win the Heisman the following season.
This is by no means a shot at USC quarterback Miller Moss, but at +4000 odds to win the Heisman, it’s a longshot that he’s going to have that kind of success in 2024, especially with Big Ten defenses on the schedule.
Riley’s track record at Oklahoma gave him the best winning percentage in Sooners’ program history, but that level of success hasn’t followed him to Los Angeles, at least not to this point.
And unless he finds a magic wand, or inherits a program that’s ready-made to compete, those days might be well done — just like his Easter brisket.
