Jul 21, 2024; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves shortstop Orlando Arcia (11) field and throws out St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado (28) (not pictured) during the second inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
- The Atlanta Braves and New York Mets are set to face off Thursday night from Citi Field in Queens. first pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET.
- The Braves and Mets are the No. 2 and 3 teams in the NL East, respectively. Just 1.5 games separate the pair, so this is as important a July matchup as you’ll see in Major League Baseball this week.
- See the probable pitchers, odds and a prediction for Thursday’s game below.
Thursday night in Queens is sure to be a fun one.
The Atlanta Braves travel to face the red-hot New York Mets, marking the start of their 3-game weekend series. The pair are separated by just 1.5 games in the NL East and are heading in the opposite directions entering tonight’s game. The Mets have won 4 of their last 5 while the Braves have lost 4 straight.
Keep reading for a prediction, the latest odds and a look at starting pitchers for Thursday’s matchup:
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction
- ATL vs. NYM pick: Mets +1.5
It’s customary to ride the hot hand, especially when they’re playing at home and facing a team that has struggled this past week. But a lot of people are finding it hard to bet against Chris Sale right now.
Sale, the Braves’ star leftie, takes the mound tonight with a league-leading 13-3 record. We’ll get into his prowess on the mound more later, but that alone should make Mets fans uneasy.
Now, I don’t think this will be a blowout. Four of these rivals’ 6 games this season have been decided by 2 runs or less, with a fairly monster 16-4 outlier on April 11. However, it’s been over 2 months since these squads played and they both look very different. The Mets have turned things around and the Braves have once again had to learn to live life without Ronald Acuña Jr. on the field.
Sale is the key factor here. If the Mets can run him early, they’ll win with some comfort. If Sale goes 7 innings, I can imagine this one going either way. I don’t see a blowout Braves win happening tonight, which makes Mets +1.5 the best play.
Braves vs. Mets Odds
| Team | Runline | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | -1.5 (+145) | -120 | O 7.5 (+100) |
| New York Mets | +1.5 (-175) | +100 | U 7.5 (-120) |
Odds above via Fanatics Sportsbook. Check out our Fanatics Sportsbook Promo Code for a look at one of the best welcome offers in the business.
As you can see, the Braves are considered away favorites for tonight’s matchup in Queens. Atlanta sits at -120 to winoutright and +145 to win by 2 or more runs.
The Mets, on the other hand, are +100 to win outright and -175 to win or keep the game within a run.
The Over/Under for this matchup is set at 7.5, not surprising with a matchup that features 2 of the better pitchers in the National League. The under is the favored bet at -120.
Braves vs. Mets Pitching Matchup
Chris Sale vs Luis Severino
| 13.3 | Record | 7-3 |
| 2.70 | ERA | 3.58 |
| 140 (6th MLB) | K | 88 (71st MLB) |
| 0.95 | WHIP | 1.18 |
| 110.0 | IP | 115.2 |
Chris Sale is one of the league’s best pitchers, folks. And since acquiring Sale from Boston, he’s been lighting it up in Atlanta.
We’ve already mentioned that Sale’s record is the best in baseball Sale also owns the No. 6 ERA and the 6th most strikeouts of any professional pitcher. His WHIP is No. 3 in the country behind only Seattle’s Logan Gilbert and Detroit’s Tarik Skubal.
Sale isn’t Superman, though. Francisco Lindor seems to have him all figured out, in fact. Lindor is hitting .419 across 31 at-bats against Sale with 13 hits and 6 RBI. Jeff McNeil has a smaller sample size, but he’s scored a hit in 2 of his 3 at-bats against Sale throughout his career. The Mets as a team are hitting .322 against Sale across his career.
Severino followed up a pair of bad outings to start July with some excellent outings against Washington and Miami. The RHP veteran owns a strong 3.58 ERA and has earned 5 of his 7 wins on the season in the last month and a half.
He had a solid outing last time up against the Braves, too. Severino threw 5 innings and allowed 4 hits, 2 earned runs with 4 strikeouts.
Speaking of strikeouts. Severino is not the consistent strikeout thrower that Sale is, but he’s a threat to hang up 7/8 any given night.
Ethan Stone was an editor for his student newspaper at the University of Tennessee and is now a News Manager for Saturday Down South and contributor with SBD!