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Yankees vs Red Sox Odds & Expert Analysis


Get ready for the Sunday Night Baseball! One of the greatest rivalries in all professional sport will have its latest renewal this weekend as the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox square off in Boston’s Fenway Park for a three-game set that opens Friday night and concludes Sunday night in ESPN’s national broadcast.

Going into the weekend series, the Yankees have a record of 60-44, two games behind the Baltimore Orioles in the American League East, while the Red Sox sit at 54-47, 6 ½ games behind Baltimore.

In the American League wild-card race, the Red Sox trail the Kansas City Royals for the third spot, while the Yankees hold the first wild-card position.

Neither team has been dominant lately, with both going just 4-6 in their last ten. You can be sure that after the Yankees got swept by the Mets in their Subway Series, they’ll be primed to go to Boston with plenty of motivation.

Read on to get our sports betting preview for Sunday night’s showdown.

Sunday Night Baseball: N.Y. Yankees at Boston Red Sox Preview | MLB Odds

When: Sunday, July 28, 2024, 7:00 pm ET

Where: Fenway Park, Boston

TV: ESPN

Radio: ESPN Radio

Live Stream: ESPN+

Pitching Matchup: Carlos Rodon (10-7, 4.42 ERA) (NY) vs Tanner Houck (8-6, 2.71 ERA) (BOS)

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Why should you bet on the Yankees?

The month of June was not kind to Carlos Rodon. He posted a 7.76 ERA for the month, thanks largely to his last two starts, against the Braves and the Blue Jays, in which he gave up 16 4uns on 21 hits, including five home runs, over just 8 â…” combined innings.

His first three starts in July saw less damage done, but he only made it to the fifth inning once in that stretch.

On Monday, though, he had a gem against Tampa Bay, throwing seven innings and allowing just one run on two hits, striking out 10 and walking just two, earning his first win since June 10.

If he can bring that kind of stuff against Boston, the Yankees should be glad – although that 10:3 flyball out to ground ball out ratio should be concerning, given how homer-friendly Fenway can be.

Alex Verdugo has a personal quest against his former team, so heading to Fenway is a good thing for him. He went 3 for 4 in the series opener the last time the Yankees came to Fenway Park.

He went into a slump after that that has seen his average drop to .228 with just one home run. However, his last five games have seen him drive in a run and pick up his average a bit. Can he keep things going?

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Why should you put your money on the Red Sox?

Tanner Houck has posted a 2.93 ERA for the month of July over three starts, although that includes six shutout innings against Oakland on July 11 – not the toughest batting order in the league.

He saw the Yankees on July 5 and allowed three runs (one earned) on two hits, striking out one and walking four over just 3 â…“ innings of a game the Sox would eventually win, 5-3, in ten innings.

On Monday, he threw six innings in a start against Colorado and gave up four runs on ten hits, striking out two while walking three.

So while Houck has had decent stuff (and did earn an All-Star selection), his ERA has been slowly creeping up since its season low of 1.85 on May 31.

The last time the Yankees and Red Sox met in Fenway Park, the Yankees won the opener handily, 8-1.

However, the Sox won the last two by a combined 17-7 score and set a franchise record for stolen bases in one game, with nine. Also, the Yankees’ batting order has been quiet, except for Aaron Judge and Juan Soto.

Since June 15, Soto and Judge have put up a combined 1.061 OPS, the top combo for the second and third batters in any MLB lineup.

However, the other seven spots have only managed a combined .625 OPS. The only team with a worse number there is the Chicago White Sox.

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Yankees at Red Sox Final Score and Prediction for Sunday Night Baseball

Fenway Park is a raucous environment, especially when the Yankees show up.

While I don’t think the Red Sox will sweep this series, the steady consistency that Houck has provided should see him hand the lead to the Red Sox bullpen, and the quiet bats of everyone not named Soto and Judge should leave Boston fans streaming out of the park smiling.

I predict a final score of Boston 5, New York 3.

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