Jul 27, 2024; Villeneuve-d’Ascq, France; Greece small forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) shoots against Canada power forward Dwight Powell (7) in the second half during the Paris 2024 Olympic Summer Games at Stade Pierre-Mauroy. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
- Spain and Greece meet in a de facto must-win game in Tuesday’s men’s basketball action
- Greek superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo is the only NBA starter on either roster
- See the Greece vs Spain predictions, picks, and odds for July 30 in Paris
After Spain and Greece lost their opening games to Australia (92-80) and Canada (86-79), respectively, on Saturday, their matchup on Tuesday, July 30, will be seen as a must-win for both teams. The top two finishers from each group of four automatically advance to the quarterfinals of the 12-team tournament, along with the two best third-place finishers in the three groups. Whichever team loses this matchup on Tuesday will be out of contention for a top-two spot in Group A, and will need a win in their final game of the group stage plus a favorable result elsewhere just to have a chance at finishing third.
Spain and Greece meet at Stade Pierre Mauroy at 5:00 am ET on Tuesday, and Giannis Antetokounmpo’s squad is favored by 4.5 points in the Greece vs Spain odds.
Greece vs Spain Picks & Predictions
- Greece moneyline (-170) at bet365
- Under 163.5 (-110) at FanDuel
Sascha Paruk’s Olympics betting record: 1-0 (+0.91 units). All wagers 1 unit unless expressly stated otherwise.
Greece had the tougher matchup against Canada in their tournament-opener (Canada is a 6.5-point favorite over Australia later in the day) and they hung tough against a relatively stacked Canadian squad. Despite falling behind by 12 in the first quarter, Giannis and company battled back and were within two in the final minutes before Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jamal Murray ultimately sealed an 86-79 win for Canada.
That was as good as a win for Greece ATS bettors as they covered by half a point as 7.5-point underdogs.
The only active NBA player on the Greek roster, Giannis has outstanding with a game-high 34 points on 11-of-17 shooting from the field and a rock-solid 12-of-15 performance from the stripe. Former Rocket/Nugget Kostas Papanikolaou added 17 points, including 3-of-6 from beyond the arc.
Greece was able to cover despite shooting just 39% from the field (28.1% from three) and finishing -4 in rebounding (37 to 33).
Spain were distanced by Australia on Saturday in a game that was as concerning for the Spaniards as it was encouraging for the Australians. Spain has only one full-time NBA player on its roster, Santi Aldama, and was outclassed in almost every facet of the game by the Aussies.
Aldama had a team-high 27 points but Spain shot just 39.1% from the field and finished -14 in rebounding (46-32) while allowing the Boomers to shoot 50% from three. If not for 16 Aussie turnovers, the score would have been even uglier.
It’s clear that defense is going to be an issue for a relatively unathletic Spanish team, and that plays into Giannis’s hands. Even against Canada’s elite perimeter defenders like Dillon Brooks and Luguentz Dort, Giannis still managed to get to the line 15 times. If the officiating in Spain vs Greece is reminiscent of the Greece vs Canada game, Giannis is going to spend a lot of time at the strike again.
Best Spain vs Greece Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | +4.5 (-110) at BetMGM | +160 at DraftKings | O 162.5 (-108) at DraftKings |
| Greece | -3.5 (-110) at bet365 | -170 at bet365 | U 163.5 (-110) at FanDuel |
There is a pretty wide range in the odds for Spain vs Greece on Tuesday. The point spread is 4.5 at most sportsbooks but as low as 3.5 at bet365, which also has the best moneyline price on a Greece victory at -170. The best moneyline on a Spain victory is currently +160 at DraftKings, while BetMGM has the best odds for Spain +4.5 at -110.
The most-common game total is 163.5 but both DraftKings and BetMGM have the over/under a point lower at 162.5.
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.