3 Best bets (including the over!)

FOLKS, we did it.

We made it through the unending months without actual NFL games and, finally, we are back to our regularly scheduled programming.

It’s been 172 long days since the Super Bowl but the Hall of Fame Game on Thursday night between the Chicago Bears and Houston Texans will end our football-less nightmare.

The return of the NFL may also have you feeling a bit overwhelmed about how to bet on the preseason action. Not to worry, we did the homework for you.

First, you should know the Bears aren’t playing their starters tonight. You won’t get to see Rome Odunze catching passes from Caleb Williams just yet. The Texans are also mostly going with their back-ups in the preseason opener.

The Bears (-2) enter as the favorite with the overall point total set 32.5. Here are the three bets we’re taking.

“We expect good handle on the Hall of Fame Game,” BetMGM Senior Trader Tristan Davis said in an email. “The Texans’ moneyline has received the most action moving from +105 to -125.”

As of Thursday morning at BetMGM, the Texans (-1.5) had 69 percent of all wagers and 74 percent of the spread handle. The over 31.5 was getting 55 percent of all bets and 58 percent of the handle, pushing it up to 32.5.

Here are the three bets we’re taking.

All odds via BetMGM

Over 32.5 Points (-110, 2 Units)

Historically, the preseason unders are a pretty safe bet, and given the starters are staying on the sidelines tonight, we won’t blame anyone who avoids the over.

The Hall of Fame Game, however, just happens to be bucking that trend. The over has hit in the preseason opener each of the last two years and I’m confident we’ll see enough offense tonight to make it three in a row. Especially if a Bears defense likely to anchor the team this year isn’t throwing out it’s best stoppers.

Houston might not use C.J. Stroud, but back-ups Davis Mills and Tim Boyle have enough experience to put up points in an exhibition. As we get further and further down the depth chart in the late stages of the game, expect the over to hit easily.

Bears Over 100.5 Rushing Yards (-115, 2 units)

The X-Factor here for me is Chicago quarterback Tyson Bagent. We got to see him play a bit during the regular season last year as a Bears rookie and he was not afraid to get out and scramble when the play broke down.

Bagent rushed for 70 yards against the Saints in one of his more memorable outings. He’ll be the reason this over cashes.

Texans 2+ Passing Touchdowns (+210, 1 Unit)

Mills won’t be afraid to sling the ball around, but I’m looking at the second tier of Texans wideouts and loving the amount of depth here. Start with fromer Alabama standout John Metchie III, who was slowly worked back into the fold last year after missing his rookie season while undergoing treatment for leukemia. Now in Year 3, he’s already back to making defenders look foolish in camp. 

#Texans John Metchie, sheeeeh. pic.twitter.com/HwkOI2emIn

— Coty M. Davis (@CotyDavis_24) July 30, 2024

Rookie Xavier Hutchinson out of Iowa State is another wide out who has my attention with his big-play capabilities. The same goes for fourth-year receiver Steven Sims.

I’m confident the Texans get one passing TD on Thursday. The gamble is how many more come after that.

Most important of all: remember this is merely a tune-up and do not start throwing your units around all over the place. Find a wager or two you can commit to and wait for the larger paydays to come around.

The goal is to not start chasing after the first preseason game of the year.