What We Learned From the Rookie Quarterbacks’ NFL Preseason Debuts

Editor’s note: This piece was updated after news that J.J. McCarthy underwent a full meniscus repair on Wednesday and will be out the entirety of the 2024 season.

A record six quarterbacks were taken in the top half of the first round in the 2024 NFL draft, which was an awesome development for NFL sickos who want to spend the preseason overanalyzing every rookie dropback and holding performances in meaningless exhibition games up as referendums on their respective futures. If you haven’t already decided which of these guys are headed for Canton and which are headed for careers as backups, can you even call yourself an NFL fan?

Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Michael Penix Jr., J.J. McCarthy, and Bo Nix combined for only 71 dropbacks over the first full weekend of the preseason, so it’s impossible to make those determinations just yet. But those outings did give us some insight into the progress these first-year passers are making—and they are a lot more instructive than out-of-context practice reports. So let’s go game by game and figure out what we learned about the NFL’s latest group of quarterbacks from their first professional outings.

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

Statline (vs. Buffalo Bills): 4-of-7, 95 yards, 0.97 expected points added per dropback, 13.5 yards per play

In case you missed Williams’s preseason debut, here’s how the average Bears fan probably looked while they were watching.

The numbers alone deserve an “AWOOOGA”: Williams averaged 13.5 yards per dropback and 0.97 EPA per play against the Bills first-teamers. And the film was even more encouraging. More than any other rookie who played over the weekend, Williams looked the part of a franchise quarterback. He had a confidence level and decision-making skill similar to his USC days—while the other first-round passers looked like guys who were in their first pro starts. And considering the hype that’s surrounded Williams for the better part of three years, that makes sense.

The big highlight was this 26-yard dart to Cole Kmet that Williams threw while sprinting away from a pass rusher.

There aren’t many quarterbacks who can make that play, and there are even fewer who can make it look that easy.

Williams’s first pass attempt of the day stood out for different reasons. It came on third-and-12—a situation that heavily favors the defense—and while there were no daring escapes from the pocket or highlight-reel throws, we got to see the other, often overshadowed side of Williams’s game: his ability to stand in the pocket with poise and find the open guy.

That’s not the most complicated read. Williams is concentrated on the “squeeze” of the zone defenders in the middle of the field. He sees slot corner Taron Johnson drop into the window of Rome Odunze’s route to the top of the screen, and then the two Bills linebackers converge on Keenan Allen’s sit route over the middle. Here, many young quarterbacks would panic and run into a sack. A lot of the predraft criticisms of Williams suggested he had too much of that in his game for him to succeed in the NFL. But in this instance, Williams calmly gets to his third read and hits D.J. Moore in time for a first down. This is how a veteran quarterback, not a rookie making his first start, approaches a third-and-long.

Now, operating like a vet on one play and doing it consistently are two different things. There will be many times throughout his rookie season when Williams’s confidence will turn into recklessness. He’ll have some stinkers. All rookie quarterbacks do. But judging from what we saw on Saturday, the rave reviews from camp, and the behind-the-scenes glimpses we’ve gotten from Hard Knocks, Williams looks to be exactly who Chicago thought he was when it took him with the first pick in the draft: a quarterback worth getting excited about.

Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

Statline (vs. New York Jets): 2-of-3, 45 yards, 0.98 EPA per dropback, 15 yards per play

We didn’t see much of Daniels in his preseason debut against the Jets, as he was on the field for only one possession. The good news is that the drive lasted for 11 plays; the bad news, at least for those of us who wanted to see the rookie operate, is that Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury refused to call a single dropback pass for him. Daniels ended the day with three attempts: a screen pass that he sailed over Austin Ekeler’s head, a bubble screen to Terry McLaurin on a run-pass option, and a perfectly placed deep pass on a play that Daniels checked into himself, according to teammates and coaches.

It was a beautifully thrown ball and a daring pre-snap audible for any quarterback—especially a rookie who was getting his first taste of pro ball. But this performance didn’t show us anything we hadn’t already seen from Daniels during his final season at LSU. His deep-ball accuracy, particularly on vertical throws to the perimeter, was his main selling point as a prospect. It’s not a surprise that the skill has translated to the NFL. It’s also not surprising that his speed has given him an advantage. Daniels capped off his lone drive with an easy touchdown run, pulling the ball on a zone read play and beating an unblocked safety to the end zone.

Daniels’s 11 snaps showed us why Washington took him with the second pick in April’s draft, but he did not get a chance—through no fault of his own—to answer the questions many draft analysts (including Bill Belichick) had about him. We didn’t get to see how he’d operate in a tight pocket. There were no dropback passes attacking the middle of the field, an area he largely ignored at LSU. And he was never forced out of structure, so we didn’t see how he’ll protect himself against bigger, stronger defenders. (He notably seemed to approach college tacklers the same way Wile E. Coyote approaches painted tunnels.)

What we did see out of Daniels last weekend, though, was confidence. Not just confidence in his arm or legs, but confidence in the work he’s been putting in during the offseason. His teammates have been touting his effort throughout training camp, and it’s paying off to the point that Daniels felt comfortable changing a play in his first preseason game when some quarterbacks could go their entire rookie seasons without doing that once.

Drake Maye, New England Patriots

Statline (vs. Carolina Panthers): 2-of-3, 19 yards, 0.22 EPA per dropback, 6.33 yards per play

There’s been concern in New England about Maye’s footwork ever since, hours before the draft, former Patriots coach and budding TV star Belichick said it “needs a lot of work.” New Pats coach Jerod Mayo and his staff seem to agree with the assessment as, per The MMQB’s Albert Breer, that’s been the focal point of Maye’s onboarding process with the team so far. In Breer’s words, Maye had “almost no footwork training” at North Carolina. And while his brief preseason debut, which lasted just one rain-soaked drive that fizzled out around midfield, didn’t show us much, it did give us a peek at his progress.

According to Breer, the coaching staff’s top concern throughout minicamp was getting Maye used to taking snaps from under center—he operated almost exclusively from the gun in school—and tying his feet to his eyes as he works through his progressions. Maye attempted only three passes in the game, but one of them was an under-center dropback that included a play-action fake. If you can ignore that he overcooked the throw and focus on his feet, this is an encouraging rep.

Maye’s drop and the receiver’s route are synced up, and the ball comes out as soon as he finishes his last step. This isn’t a terribly difficult play, and Maye misses wildly, but his feet look good and were not to blame for the high pass.

Maye’s only other real throw—his first attempt was a throat-clearing screw pass to open the drive—came on third down. With the Panthers coverage unit playing the sticks, New England’s play design was dead on arrival, forcing Maye to check down to his running back—but not before quickly working through a progression.

Maye immediately comes off his first read after seeing the zone defenders drop into the window of the throw. You could make the argument that there was a chance for Maye to hit his second read beyond the sticks, but it would have required a perfect throw to avoid a turnover-worthy play. In a heavy downpour, that wasn’t a bad decision for the rookie. And Maye’s willingness to push the ball downfield has never been questioned. If anything, he could stand to dial it back a bit. He has a little too much Josh Allen in him at times. That failed checkdown was a sign of growth. The real value of that clip is seeing how Maye’s feet tie to his eyes. Every step of the way, he’s in position to make a throw from a solid base. That’s what you want to see at this point in his development.

And this, from first-year offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt, is what you want to be hearing about a rookie quarterback who’s trying to shake the “raw” label and earn a starting job by the start of the regular season:

Jacoby Brissett will be tough to unseat on New England’s depth chart, but with Maye’s progress and his footwork “going great,” according to Breer, it’s starting to feel like he will crack the starting lineup sooner rather than later.

J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings

Statline (vs. Las Vegas Raiders): 11-of-17, 188 yards, 0.57 EPA per dropback, 10.8 yards per play

For those of you who are into extremely small sizes and stats from meaningless games, J.J. McCarthy leads all quarterbacks from the 2024 draft class in just about every major passing metric following one round of exhibition action. McCarthy racked up 10.9 EPA on 19 dropbacks and averaged over 10.8 yards per play against the Raiders’ second-team defense. But because Minnesota sports fans aren’t allowed to have nice things, the good vibes ended there. We got word Monday that McCarthy would miss practice due to some knee soreness. Then, before Vikings fans could even properly lose their shit about that news, we learned that the soreness was actually a torn meniscus that would require surgery. This kind of thing never happens in Green Bay, does it?

Then Wednesday, news broke that McCarthy had a full meniscus repair and will miss the entire 2024 season. Both the Vikings and McCarthy seem to be taking this in stride. And judging by his first-game performance, the rookie seemed to be well ahead of schedule in terms of development. With his game-managing ability—which was on full display over the course of his ridiculously successful stint as the Wolverines’ starter—McCarthy already appears capable of leading a solidly built offense like this Minnesota one, though that will come next season at the earliest.

The question with McCarthy throughout the draft process, though, was whether he could offer more than that. He didn’t have to elevate his offense at Michigan. Not often, at least. And with a smaller frame and a good-but-not-great-arm, he doesn’t have the traits we typically associate with elite quarterbacks. The truth is, McCarthy doesn’t have to ever be one of those guys for him to work out for Minnesota. If he can just eventually become Kirk Cousins-plus, it’ll be a home run. That outcome is certainly on the table given how McCarthy braved the pocket in his first preseason game, keeping his eyes downfield as he stepped up in the face of pressure rather than backing away from it—always the sign of good quarterbacking.

But it’s too premature to be putting that kind of ceiling on a guy who hasn’t played an NFL snap that counts—and won’t get to for another year or so. Even on some of McCarthy’s best plays, we could see why scouts had questions about his high-end potential. Here are some examples of Sam Darnold and McCarthy making almost identical throws, both corner routes thrown in between a cornerback in the flat and a safety over the top.

While Darnold, who was once viewed as a prospect with limitless potential, makes the throw with relative ease, the rookie has to hitch into it and his side-arm delivery leads to a flatter throw that nearly pulls the receiver out of bounds. McCarthy makes the play, which is ultimately what matters, but there is a clear gap in arm talent.

Fortunately for McCarthy, arm talent is just one aspect of quarterback play, and it’s not like he has a weak arm. He can sling it, we’ve just rarely seen him feather the ball up and over defenders. A quarterback with a truly talented arm can do both consistently. How McCarthy is able to level up as a passer—and how his recovery goes this season—will ultimately determine his ceiling.

Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

Statline (vs. Indianapolis Colts): 15-of-21, 125 yards, 0.02 EPA per dropback, 6.0 yards per play

The most polarizing pick of the 2024 draft may have produced the most polarizing performance of the past weekend. Depending on where you get your quarterback analysis, Nix either looked like a poised vet or a nervous rookie sensing phantom pressure. I lean toward the latter after seeing Sean Payton’s latest pet project waste clean pocket after clean pocket against the Colts. The Broncos’ backup offensive line provided the rookie with ideal protection on most snaps, but you wouldn’t have known it based on how often Nix found himself on the run. The pressure he was fleeing was mostly nonexistent.

At least when Nix abandoned the pocket, he made something of it—whether he was scrambling for yards or eventually finding an open receiver downfield. He had a perfect success rate on his three dropbacks that ended outside of the pocket, according to TruMedia. But that’s the silver lining in an otherwise shaky performance. Quarterbacks who run themselves into pressure without having the talent to overcome it—the Gardner Minshews and Sam Howells of the league—don’t stay on the field for too long. Nix avoided those comparisons for now, but this may not be a sustainable model for a quarterback who lacks elite physical traits.

When Nix was more decisive on Sunday, he looked the part of an NFL starter. We saw some of the accuracy and arm talent that Payton has been raving about since Denver drafted Nix with the 12th pick back in April. If this is going to work early, Payton will have to keep Nix in the situations where he feels most comfortable and provide him with plays that don’t require him to go far beyond his first read. That’s when Nix is at his best—as we saw at Oregon.

In the meantime, it will be up to Payton and his staff to coach the pocket jitters out of Nix’s game. This offense, which was run successfully by one of the best pocket managers in league history in Drew Brees, doesn’t work with a jumpy quarterback under center. Payton knows that better than anyone and wouldn’t have used a first-round pick on Nix if he didn’t think Nix could develop into that kind of quarterback.

Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons

Statline (vs. Miami Dolphins): 9-of-16, 104 yards, -0.23 EPA per dropback, 6.5 yards per play

With the Falcons locked into the Kirk Cousins experience for at least two seasons, Michael Penix Jr. is the one first-round quarterback without a viable path to starting in 2024. And unlike Maye, Nix, or McCarthy, he’s not currently locked in a battle for the starting job. So if any of the six quarterbacks who headlined the 2024 class had a green light to go out there and sling the ball downfield last week, it was Penix—and he took advantage. Six of his first eight attempts traveled at least 10 yards in the air before Atlanta dialed things back on the second of his two drives. And many of those passes were aimed outside the numbers to the perimeter.

Penix’s accuracy was hit or miss on Saturday, but it’s impossible to properly assess that trait based on a handful of throws. His 16 attempts on Saturday night did show us, though, that he is approaching his unique developmental path with the right mentality. He won’t be getting many live reps over the next one or two years, so he’ll have to use the few he does get to test his boundaries. And he didn’t waste any of the playing time he got in Miami.

Attacking downfield was Penix’s calling card at Washington, so it’s not surprising that it’s carried over to the NFL. Unfortunately, Penix’s tendency to stick to one spot in the pocket has also seemed to carry over, which is a little disappointing. Of the rookie QBs who attempted at least 10 passes in their opening game, Penix was the only one without a single dropback that ended outside of the pocket, according to TruMedia. McCarthy, Williams, and Nix combined for 13 such plays, while Daniels and Maye hardly played. Typically, there’d be no concern over a quarterback staying out of harm’s way during the preseason, but these games may be the only opportunity he gets to play without wearing a red, non-contact jersey this season. Penix should be using them to see what he can get away with using that so-called 4.46-second 40-yard dash speed he never really played around with during his college career.

Penix’s preseason is off to a solid start, but until we see him stretch out those legs (and get a few more looks at his deep accuracy) it will be difficult to judge his ceiling.