We’re using our TRACR-powered model to find the college football teams projected to underperform most sharply relative to the betting consensus.
As we’ve mentioned before, our TRACR projection system sees 2024 college football a lot like betting markets see it – for the most part, anyway.
Nationwide, the gap in projected win totals between sportsbook over/under figures and TRACR is just 0.1 wins. But a handful of teams are the subject of wide disagreement between bettors and our computers.
There are 18 FBS teams whose TRACR projections are at least 1.5 wins better than where betting markets place them, while 17 teams are at least 1.5 wins worse according to TRACR.
TRACR uses game data from the previous season and then blends in adjustments for prep recruiting and transfer portal activity in the offseason. It creates a rating for each team and applies it to that team’s schedule, offering one more data point in a sea of preseason projections.
Here are the 17 teams that the model expects to underperform most sharply relative to the betting consensus:
Let’s run through a handful of the predicted underachievers. Why are they here?
Notable Underachievers
Utah: 9.5 wins (Vegas) vs. 7.0 wins (TRACR)
Bettors think Utah is a nine- or 10-win team. Media voters picked the Utes to win the Big 12 in their first year in the league. So, what gives with our projections?
This is likely a case in which a team’s unique circumstances make it primed to be underrated a bit in our model. Last year, the Utes didn’t have starting quarterback Cam Rising or star tight end Brant Kuithe – two huge contributors to their 2022 Pac-12 championship team. Both missed all of 2023 with injuries. Neither shows up as a recruiting addition in TRACR, but both are crucial adds to a team that should contend for the College Football Playoff.
So, the Utes are unusually primed to be underrated by TRACR, and likely by other data-based projection systems as well. I’d be surprised if they didn’t win their seventh game with a month left in the season, give or take. Whether Utah can win 10-ish games in a competitive Big 12 is, of course, its own question.
UNLV: 7.5 wins (Vegas) vs. 5.6 wins (TRACR)
The Runnin’ Rebels are another team that’s probably designed to be a bit under-projected. They were one of the biggest surprises last year, making a run from less than mediocrity to hosting the Mountain West Championship, where they lost to a more experienced Boise State.
The Rebels return a lot of key parts from that team, the most prominent being Ricky White – the best returning receiver in the Group of Five conferences. But they lost quarterback Jayden Maiava to USC, and replacement Matthew Sluka comes from an FCS program, Holy Cross.
Sluka is an accomplished FCS QB but a blank slate at this level. TRACR projects the UNLV offense to be 38th in the country. Perhaps that will go up. UNLV figures to be right in the MWC race again alongside Boise and Fresno State, now with Sluka behind center.
Oklahoma State: 8.5 wins (Vegas) vs. 6.6 wins (TRACR)
Mike Gundy’s team has won at least seven games in 18 consecutive seasons, albeit with a few of those seventh wins coming in bowl games. So, TRACR makes a bold call in projecting the Pokes to be right on the border between six and seven in the regular season. What gives?
TRACR may be a bit less wooed than human beings by running back Ollie Gordon, the nation’s leading rusher last year and the only sure thing Oklahoma State has going for it on offense.
Gordon, who avoided a suspension for an offseason DUI arrest, also ranked second in yards added, which tracks yards after the first encounter with a defender rather than limiting to first contact.
Quarterback Alan Bowman and the OKST passing game have been up-and-down for a few years now, as the program has quietly shifted from a passing identity to one where elite running backs and good offensive lines keep things respectable.
TRACR ranks the Cowboy offense 44th entering the season, even with the brilliant Gordon leading the way. It does see a 75.0% chance that Gundy continues his 18-year streak of taking the program to a bowl.
Liberty: 10.5 wins (Vegas) vs. 8.7 wins (TRACR)
The Flames are worth watching in the CFP picture, where TRACR gives them a 15.0% chance to represent the Group of Five in the field.
But TRACR only sees a 2.0% chance of them going undefeated for the second year in a row, despite Conference USA looking typically weak and Liberty returning most of its best players (including star QB Kaidon Salter) from last year’s Cotton Bowl team. Liberty also has an easy schedule, which TRACR projects to be 129th out of 134 teams in difficulty.
The model’s skepticism appears to come from a few fronts. For one thing, as easy as Liberty’s schedule is, the Flames have more potentially losable games than they did in a cakewalk of a 2023 slate. A road trip to fellow College Football Playoff hopeful Appalachian State in Week 5 looms large. They also don’t avoid either of the other two CUSA teams (Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State) that look like potential contenders.
Mainly, though, TRACR’s skepticism revolves around the defense, which it ranks 84th, just behind those two other CUSA schools. Our computers don’t think Salter and small but mighty tailback Quinton Cooley are assured to cover up deficiencies on the other side of the ball.
Nebraska: 7.5 wins (Vegas) for 5.9 wins (TRACR)
Is this finally the year Nebraska makes a bowl for the first time since 2016? Most people picking the Big Ten schedule think so, and TRACR does too, giving the Huskers a 59.8% shot at bowl eligibility.
Our projection model does not believe in Nebraska’s offense, which makes sense given the Huskers’ enormous reliance on a true freshman quarterback, five-star prospect Dylan Raiola. If Raiola is as good in his first season as recruiting analysts think he can be, Nebraska’s TRACR projection could be a game or two low.
Nebraska’s strength, though, will be its defense, which TRACR ranks 12th. The Huskers have talent and experience on that side, all anchored around excellent defense tackle Nash Hutmacher and a tough line. Coach Matt Rhule drastically improved Nebraska’s defense in an otherwise sloppy Year 1. The vibes ahead of Year 2 seem good.
Our system would just like to see a bit more, and who can blame it?
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