Du Plessis vs Adesanya (Saturday, Aug. 17)

Sep 9, 2023; Sydney, NSW, AUSTRALIA; Israel Adesanya reacts during his fight with Sean Strickland (not pictured) in UFC 293 at Qudos Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jasmin Frank-USA TODAY Sports

• UFC 305 goes down this Saturday, August 17, at the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia
• Middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis defends his title against former champ Israel Adesanya in the main event
•  Read below for UFC 305 odds, predictions, and fights for the top fights on the main card

UFC 305 takes place this Saturday, August 17, at the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. The ESPN+ PPV main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, with prelims on ESPN (8 p.m. ET) and early prelims on ESPN+ (6:30 p.m. ET).

Headlining the event is a middleweight title clash between champion Dricus Du Plessis and former king Israel Adesanya. Oddsmakers are having a hard time choosing a favorite, giving a slight edge to the 35-year-old Nigerian.

We’ve got your full betting preview right here, with predictions, odds and props for the top fights. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings.

UFC 305 Odds – Main Card (August 17)

The biggest favorite on the main card is Carlos Prates at -375 over Li Jingliang (+295). Those odds imply Prates has a 78.95% chance of winning the fight, while Jingliang has just a 25.32% probability of pulling off the upset.

The most lopsided odds are in the Gamrot vs Hooker fight, with Gamrot a hefty -345 favorite (77.50% implied probability) against the +275 underdog Hooker (26.67%).

The tightest odds on the main card are for that Du Plessis vs Adesanya headliner, which is essentially a pick’em. Adesanya, nicknamed “The Last Stylebender” is a slim -115 favorite, giving him 52% implied win portability.

Odds as of August 15, 2024, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out the available DraftKings promos for UFC 305. 

Du Plessis vs Adesanya Prediction

Saturday’s main event between Du Plessis (-105) and Adesanya (-115) is a tight matchup that could go either way. Du Plessis is coming off a split decision win over Sean Strickland to capture the belt, while Adesanya lost the title to Strickland last year.

Adesanya has the striking advantage with his technical kickboxing and ability to control distance. However, Du Plessis’ aggressive pressure style and strong wrestling could pose problems if he can close the distance and take Adesanya down.

The key for “The Last Stylebender” will be using his footwork and counter-striking to keep the fight at range and pick apart Du Plessis as he comes forward. For “Stillknocks,” getting the fight to the ground and utilizing his top control will be crucial.

Du Plessis’ pace and power make him a live underdog in the UFC 305 odds. He hurt both Darren Till and Robert Whittaker on the feet. If he can get inside and make this ugly, the belt could stay around his waist.

That being said, however, I think Adesanya’s striking will ultimately be too much. He’s added some muscle to combat Du Plessis’ strength, and his footwork should allow him to potshot the champ as he wades forward. Give me Adesanya to recapture the belt via third-round TKO.

Du Plessis vs Adesanya Pick:

• Adesanya to Win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 3 (+1800)

Erceg vs Kara-France Picks

The co-main event pits Aussie Steve Erceg against New Zealand’s Kai Kara-France in a pivotal flyweight tilt. Erceg’s a solid -175 favorite, but KKF’s power makes him live at +145.

Erceg’s coming off a valiant title challenge loss to Alexandre Pantoja, where he showed improved striking and wrestling. His size and athleticism will be tough for Kara-France to deal with.

But Kara-France hits like a truck and only needs one clean shot. His grappling is suspect, though, and Erceg will likely mix takedowns with his long-range striking to keep him guessing.

It’s a close fight, but I favor Erceg’s versatility and gas tank. He should be able to outlast Kara-France for a decision win. Look for Erceg to use his five-inch reach advantage to maintain distance on the feet and pick his spots to shoot takedowns.

Erceg vs Kara-France Pick:

• Pick: Erceg To Win By Decision (+120)

Gamrot vs Hooker Prediction

Lightweight contenders Mateusz Gamrot and Dan Hooker face off in a potential Fight of the Night. Hooker’s striking is top-notch, but Gamrot’s wrestling could be kryptonite for the Kiwi.

Thank you to all fans and friends for your faith and support! All messages and energy! 3 days until UFC 305 in Australia! I’m ready and I’ll give it everything I have! @americantopteam pic.twitter.com/8Kb8I1FMgA

— Mateusz Gamrot (@gamer_mma) August 15, 2024

“The Hangman” has a clear advantage on the feet, with elite boxing and vicious knees and elbows in close. But he’s faded late in fights before, and Gamrot’s pressure and grappling are relentless.

I see Gamrot surviving some dicey moments early before imposing his will as the fight goes on. His cardio and offensive wrestling should carry him to a clear-cut decision.

Gamrot vs Hooker Pick:

• Gamrot To Win By Decision (-150)

UFC 305 Quick Picks

Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-218) vs Tai Tuivasa (+180):

Heavyweight bangers collide in a fight unlikely to see the final bell. Rozenstruik’s technical striking gives him the edge, so lay the -218 on Bigi Boy.

Carlos Prates (-375) vs Li Jingliang (+295):

Prates is a fast-rising contender, but Jingliang’s power and experience make him a live dog at nearly 3-1 odds. The Leech is worth a flier at +295 to score the upset.

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