The Premier League is back, and so are we with our weekly dose of snap judgements on the weekend’s action. We’ll be here every Monday with our latest knee-jerk reactions.
Here at Opta Analyst, being a data-led sports website, we tend to think long and hard before coming to conclusions. We need numbers to back up what we say, so there is usually some justification to what we put out on the interweb.
But sometimes, we just want to be a bit more knee-jerk. Step in this weekly column.
Every Monday, we’ll bring you a dose of premature judgements and reactionary takes on what’s happened in the Premier League.
And what better time for us to get started with some assumptions about how the season will play out than after just one weekend of football? Here are six knee-jerk reactions to the opening matchday of the 2024-25 Premier League campaign:
This Season Will Be Exactly the Same as Last
We’re not being entirely literal here. We don’t mean Arsenal are going to set the pace at the top of the table, only to be overtaken at the last by Manchester City, while Liverpool, Aston Villa, Manchester United and Newcastle will all battle for the remaining Champions League places, and the promoted teams will all be relegated.
But on this weekend’s evidence, it could play out pretty much exactly like that.
The opening weekend of action saw City beat Chelsea on Sunday in particularly impressive fashion, while Arsenal strolled to a 2-0 win over Wolves. Liverpool overcame an early stutter before breezing to a win, while Villa, Man Utd and Newcastle all picked up single-goal victories in potentially tricky circumstances. Newly-promoted sides Ipswich and Southampton battled bravely but ultimately fell to defeats.
It all had a painfully familiar feel to it. City and Arsenal are favourites for the title, and on the opening weekend they reminded everyone exactly why that is the case. We could be in for a very similar season to 2023-24.
City Don’t Need to Sign an Alvarez Replacement
Jack Grealish, Rodri, Kyle Walker, John Stones, Nathan Aké, Oscar Bobb, James McAtee, Matheus Nunes.
That’s a list of some of the Manchester City players who played no part in Sunday’s 2-0 win over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. Phil Foden was also only a half-time substitute.
After selling Júlian Alvarez to Atlético Madrid earlier this month for a huge amount of money, the widely-held view is that City will reinvest some of that cash in a replacement. Alvarez started 31 Premier League games last season and made more appearances (36) in the competition than any other City player. Those minutes clearly need replacing somehow.
They have already signed Savinho, who played the first half against Chelsea and he looked very much at home in the Premier League before he was forced off with a knee injury. That said, he is a very different player to Alvarez, who acted as a back-up to both Erling Haaland up front and to Kevin De Bruyne in central midfield last term.
Yet City have so much depth, and in Bobb and McAtee they have two very exciting young players coming through, too. Bobb is set for a spell on the sidelines due to a fracture in his leg, but City’s other attackers contributed admirably. Jérémy Doku looked as sharp as ever, Rico Lewis was assured in central midfield, and Mateo Kovacic ran the show in the absence of Rodri.
Guardiola’s City are incredible at adapting when circumstances change, and they did it again without their Spanish midfield general this weekend. Did anyone even notice he and Alvarez weren’t there?
Watching them this weekend, it feels like there may be no need for them to spend any more money.
Brentford Don’t Need Toney
Every Premier League summer needs a transfer saga and this year’s edition looks set to star Brentford forward Ivan Toney.
It’s no secret that he wants to leave for a bigger club, and he was left out of the squad for Sunday’s game against Crystal Palace due to interest in him from Saudi Pro League side Al-Ahli.
Brentford have been preparing for this day for a while, though, and manager Thomas Frank isn’t worried.
“Of course Ivan is a top player, we all know that,” Frank said before the match. “He has been fantastic for us for four years, but we showed last season we can cope without him.” He then added after Yoane Wissa had scored the goal that gave his side a 2-1 win: “Every time Ivan hasn’t played then Wissa has stepped up and he did that again today.”
Since the start of last season, Brentford have won just 18.8% of the Premier League games that Toney has started (3/18), while they have won 34.8% of the games he has missed. Sunday’s victory was their eighth win in 23 matches in which Toney was absent from their starting lineup. They score more goals and win more points, too.
This isn’t to say they are better off without him, but they arguably shouldn’t be concerned about a world in which they cash in on him.
Chelsea’s Squad is Going to Remain an Unwelcome Distraction
The number of players in Chelsea’s squad means that there will always be a string of big names left out of their matchday squad.
On Sunday, one of those players was Raheem Sterling, whose representatives released a statement shortly after the teams were announced saying they wanted “clarity on the situation” surrounding his future. That immediately became the main talking point.
Chelsea went on to lose Enzo Maresca’s first game in charge to a rampant Manchester City, which in itself was no cause for concern. They put up a decent fight and lost to the only men’s team ever to win four successive English top-flight titles. No biggie.
But the Sterling story created something for everyone to talk about, and there was no avoiding it for Maresca. Now everyone is wondering how on earth he will keep his players happy with so many guaranteed to be left out week on week. It’s a legitimate concern, and without trimming his squad soon, the Italian will face constant questions about which players are in his plans and which will be sold.
It threatens to be an unwelcome distraction in his first season with Chelsea.
West Ham Fans Should Be Careful What They Wish For
In Julen Lopetegui’s first game on Saturday, West Ham had 52.1% possession against Aston Villa, and lost 2-1. They generated 2.46 expected goals to Villa’s 2.03.
In that exact fixture under David Moyes last season – played only a few months ago in March – they had 30.6% possession and drew 1-1. They won the xG battle on that occasion by a much bigger margin (2.01 to 0.66).
At the end of the Moyes era, it was pretty much agreed that West Ham had reached their ceiling under the Scot. It was hoped that Lopetegui would bring a more proactive approach and help the team develop and go further.
This weekend wasn’t exactly a disastrous start to life under the Spaniard – losing to this Villa team is no embarrassment – but it was a worse result than last season despite the increase in possession. According to the xG numbers, they created more but they were much more porous at the other end.
It may just take a while to get used to Lopetegui’s way of playing, but it could also not be long before West Ham fans start to wonder why they were all fine with seeing the back of Moyes.
Sean Dyche is Far From Safe
Brighton might well have unearthed yet another gem in 31-year-old manager Fabian Hürzeler, and they might go on to win many more games as convincingly as they beat Everton on Saturday.
At the same time, Everton will have been bitterly disappointed to open their season with a defeat as one-sided as this, at home to a team they could reasonably hope to be competitive against.
Instead, they failed to have a shot on target after the fourth minute, lost 3-0 and were a hair’s breadth of an offside away from conceding a fourth goal late on. They scored a disallowed goal of their own, but it was from a set-piece and, with the greatest of respect to Dyche, many Everton fans will have aspirations to be more than a set-piece team.
They might have had a penalty for Lewis Dunk’s clumsy challenge on Dominic Calvert-Lewin, and the game could have been very different had that decision stood and they scored it. But going on the evidence of the rest of this game, Everton might well have still lost. They didn’t create enough, particularly in open play, and Dyche will need to improve his team on that front.
The former Burnley manager has done a very good job at Goodison Park, but more days like this and the fans could start to turn against him.
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