Preseason Prediction Megapost El Fantastico

It’s here…..IT’S HERE! The wrap-up post that will put a bow on what I believe will happen during the 2024 college football season in the FBS sphere. So let’s get right down to it and start with the brand-spankin’ new expanded College Football Playoff (and the bowl games that go along with it)! ESPN, don’t use that. A little too wordy.

We begin with those very College Football Playoff matchups. Normally you would have a good idea who I would put in here and then I would put a team in that plays terrible and I feel like an idiot. This year I have even MORE chances to do that! So here you go! First of all, how this will all work, in graphic form which I obviously did not create:

So this whole thing starts only six days after the Army-Navy Game. Crazy to think but that’s where we are. And there is no reseeding. Whatever path you are on, you are on. And here is how I see this looking when the teams are finally slotted in:

A shoutout to PrintYourBrackets.com for this simple format that is very easy to fill in as long as you have a way to do fillable pdfs. I tried a few other more graphically pleasing formats and they were a fucking nightmare to fill in. Would I prefer a nicer look for this? Sure. But I don’t have graphic designers from ESPN or CBS Sports or FOX Sports or wherever to help me with that so this is what you get.

Anyway, how do we get here? Well, Oregon nabs the #1 seed as the only Power Four undefeated team remaining after the conference championships. That’s easy. Georgia is also easy at #2 as they win the SEC Championship and defeat the only other team that had a chance to be undefeated in the Power Four, Texas. Oklahoma State (the Big XII champs) and Florida State (the ACC champs) get the other two first round byes. Some will look at that and automatically want to change things, which can be done after the 2025 season. But for now, that’s what we have.

As for the other teams, some are easy ins. Texas would be 12-1 with a conference championship loss so slots in at #3. I think Boise State narrowly beats Appalachian State for the one Group of Five spot. Liberty would need to run the table to get in and won’t. Boise gets Texas in the first round and the winner would play FSU in the Peach Bowl. Notre Dame has a pretty easy schedule by Notre Dame standards and should be in the Top 10 by the end of the season. Alabama, even with two losses, will look impressive otherwise and will get the home game against the Irish to start the playoff. Winner between these two plays…oh my…UGA in the Sugar Bowl. Imagine a Georgia-Bama Sugar Bowl? The ratings will be through the roof. Penn State and Ole Miss will linger in or just outside the Top 10 all season and will do enough to get in. As for who will be higher ranked, I choose the Nittany Lions meaning the Fighting Kiffins have to travel to State College in December. Yikes. Talk about your potential White-Out and I don’t mean the fans wearing white shirts. The victor of this affair will head to the Rose Bowl and gets the top team in the nation going in to the CFP, the Oregon Ducks. Finally, the Buckeyes don’t fall very far (maybe one spot in the rankings) after a CCG loss to Oregon so is easily in the bracket. Who do they face? There are a few potential choices here. Michigan, Missouri, LSU, Tennessee and even Texas A&M could look like good choices. All three loss teams according to my predictions. In the end though, I am going with Utah. I believe their conference championship loss doesn’t hurt them enough to drop them out of the playoff unlike Miami, who I think would need to win the ACC Championship to get in. ESPN is going to have a field day with this. No wonder they pushed for this. They will have hours of content of just all their college football personnel talking about who should be in, who should be out, what the seeding should look like, who is the darkhorse, etc.

Now how will this turn out? You have to wait a little bit longer as now I give you the bowl game predictions!

The Bahamas Bowl is back (although the Famous Toastery Bowl was an interesting one). It also doesn’t look like any bowl games will be added in the near future until we see how the new playoff affects the bowl games. My guess is…not a whole lot since we have had a playoff for a decade now. Here are some other notes from what looks like it could be a super fun bowl season:

• Three games featuring one ranked team against another team that is also ranked in the polls of the College Football Playoff Committee. Iowa-The U for all the Mayo, Sooners-Tigers in the Gator Bowl and finally the best bowl game outside the playoff, Mizzou-Michigan in the Citrus Bowl. That would be three really good matchups, if they happen, which they probably won’t but I have my fingers crossed.
• I’ve been doing my best with the bowl tie-ins. Some are completely ridiculous. It’s getting to the point the bowl tie-in will just be an FBS team which, honestly, would be super fucking refreshing. “You mean we could pick an SEC team rather than a team from the MAC? Nah, I’ll pass” – no one ever.
• Too many teams and not enough bowl slots! Will this lead to more bowls? It wouldn’t surprise me. Anyway, two teams have to be left out and they won’t be Power Four teams. I believe it will be Georgia State and Central Michigan and mostly because those two conferences will have quite a few bowl-eligible teams so one being left out doesn’t look as crazy as, say, the Mountain West which only has half its teams making the postseason.
• There are some other pretty good matchups and some teams that would be kind of announcing their arrival in bowl season or to a high-level bowl. They include:
  • Texas State and FIU. Two teams who kind of announce their arrival into the postseason and back into the postseason respectively. Both schools should be a lot of fun. High octane offense down in steamy San Marcos and PITBULL STADIUM at FIU.
  • USF to go the First Responder Bowl to face an FBS squad in Texas Tech. Same with Army getting Cal in the Independence Bowl, Memphis drawing NC State for the Military Bowl and Rice heading to BAW-stun to face VaTech. Oh wait, there’s also UAB returning to bowl season to face UCF at the Armed Forces Bowl. A national audience for Trent Dilfer on the sidelines could be a lot of fun…for us, maybe not the referees.

OK back to the CFP. How is this all goint to play out? Well, here you go (with predicted scores because why not go full throttle with the (possibly shitty) predictions?):

I got all the home teams winning the first round games. Penn State would have a huge home-field advantage and I honestly can’t see whoever wins the Group of Five spot making it out of the first round. As for the quarter-finals, no real upsets even with tOSU beating OSU in a 5-over-4 win. The semis will have one great game and one OK game and I see UGA outlasting the Buckeyes once again. Finally, I think the Ducks finally…FINALLY…win the natty and Phil Knight can die happy.

IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIT’S HOT SEAT TIME! Look, I have been fairly accurate with this post over the years. Eight coaches from last year’s list of twenty are no longer with their team (although I am adding Jeff Hafley in that number and he left of his own volition). Problem is my number one choice going into the 2023 season, Neal Brown, hit it out of the fucking park with West Virginia and now going into this season it would be a shock if they missed bowl season. Very impressive indeed. Alright, let’s get to the list which is ordered from most likely to get fired to least:

Almost Guaranteed Shitcanning

1. Sam Pittman, Arkansas – Look, things are looking very bleak in Fayetteville (and Little Rock usually once a year). I have them predicted as the worst team in the SEC, just below fucking Vanderbilt! They lost their starting quarterback to UCF and they just don’t look like a team that is improving too much from last season. Could be a long season for Sammy. Woo Pig Phooie. Needed to keep his job – Arkansas to be at least somewhat competitive in SEC play. Prediction – The Battle Line Rivalry trophy game against Mizzou will be played without Pittman as I think he gets fired with one game to go.
2. Will Hall, Southern Miss – Southern Miss has had a bit of a rough time since joining the Sun Belt. They haven’t been able to break through into the top half of the league or even in the West Division. And it probably won’t happen this year either. Needed to keep his job – Playing for bowl eligibility in the final week. Prediction – He will also be gone with one or maybe even two games to go in the season and he will end up coaching in the Southland next season.
3. Mike Neu, Ball State – This guy seems to show up on my list almost every year. He’s like a cockroach. No offense but when will Ball State wake the fuck up and realize that the MAC is there for the taking if you can get the right head coach in (see Miami of Ohio or Toledo). Needed to keep his job – Playing meaningful football when MACtion hits. Prediction – Potential to be a lame duck coach on the final weekend of the season.
4. Stan Drayton, Temple – I get it. It’s tough to recruit at Temple. No one wants to play there and I don’t blame them. Other than that one year when Temple showed up on the ABC Primetime game hosting Notre Dame, they play in front of an almost-empty cavern of a stadium in Philadelphia. Maybe if they got a much smaller on-campus stadium it would feel better. Who knows. Needed to keep his job – Improving to 4 or 5 wins. Prediction – I have them as the only winless team in FBS so you tell me what my prediction is.
5. Sonny Cumbie, Louisiana Tech – I thought of putting him lower down but to be honest, he hasn’t done much to improve this squad. LaTech, despite being in a not-so-great spot in Conference USA and, arguably, considered a less important team than Louisiana or even ULM, has some good history and they have been very below-average for too many years in a row. Needed to keep his job – At least 4 wins. Just one more win. Not three. That’s all Bulldogs fans would ask for. Prediction – Guess what? I have them winning THREE DAMN GAMES! Ugh. Definite shitcanning but he will at least last to Black Monday.

Probable Shitcanning

6. Joe Moorhead (Akron) – How was he not on this list last year? I must have forgot all about him. He seems like a nice guy but a) it’s tough to win at Akron and b) he may just not be cut out to be the head man at the FBS level. And there’s nothing wrong with that.  Needed to keep his job – Much like Ball State above, playing some meaningful MACtion and look like a team that could sneak into a bowl game.  Prediction – Two wins AGAIN and a very good chance his time will be done with the Zips.
7. Dave Aranda (Baylor) – Hey, remember when Aranda was the Next Big Thing in college football head coaching?  How the (somewhat) mightly have fallen.  The Bears should be a bit better this year and maybe they will give him another shot after this season because they will be somewhat competitive.  But honestly, I could see them moving on meaning Aranda would be the next defensive coordinator hire for 2025.  Needed to keep his job – 6 would be enough here.  Prediction – Less than 6 wins and a tough decision by the Baylor athletic department.
8. Clark Lea (Vanderbilt) – I am going out on a bit of a limb just because it’s Vandy and very few expect much out of Vandy…even Vandy fans and alumni.  Maybe you just have to be James Franklin to win there.  Needed to keep his job – At least 3 wins but to look much more competitive against the lower half of the SEC.  Prediction – Three wins and a long offseason in Nashville (but at least their scoreboard has been built).

Possible Shitcanning

9. Mike Houston (East Carolina) – Just because you taste success at the FCS level doesn’t mean that you can turn a program around at the FBS level.  Houston is a perfect example.  ECU now sits near the bottom of the American Conference with no real possibility to move up, at least this season.  Needed to keep his job – Back to almost .500.  Prediction – I see the Pirates as improved but their predicted four victories might not be enough for Houston to be back in 2025.
10. Shane Beamer (South Carolina) – As I type this I am doubting myself just a little bit.  Beamer has been a bit of a shot in the arm for the Gamecocks and the energy looked to be good for them in 2022.  Last season, not so much.  He might have to do more than have the same energy as Dana Holgorsen to keep Cocks fans satisfied.  Needed to keep his job – 5 wins and a legitimate shot for bowl eligibility on the final weekend.  Prediction – I don’t see them winning any more than four games. What would that buy Beamer? Less time and a shorter leash.
11. Tony Elliott (Virginia) – Virginia has had it pretty rough over the last couple seasons.  What they went through near the end of the 2022 season was horrific.  Last year was probably cathartic for everyone involved with the program. Saying that, it was the same three wins last year. At some point, Hoos followers will get antsy for something better.  Needed to keep his job – More than 3 wins.  Prediction – Wellllllll………yeah I predicted them to have, you guessed it, Frank Stallone three wins. I could see Elliott getting the axe just so they can get what amounts to a fresh new start.
12. Don Brown (UMass) – UMass is bad.  They haven’t been good since joining FBS.  Yet there is a glimmer of hope as next season they will be rejoining the MAC. Why would the MAC take them in? Who knows but maybe it’s a way to grab UConn for 2026. I don’t know and probably none of this has anything to do with Brown’s job security.  Needed to keep his job – Don’t look like complete shit against decent Group of Five teams and beat the FCS teams on the schedule.  Prediction – I have the Minutemen beating those two FCS teams and UConn! Normally that wouldn’t be enough for Brown to stay but almost no one wants to coach UMass so he will get another year, I think.
13. Mike Locksley (Maryland) – I don’t know what to say about the Terps’ chances anymore in the Big Ten.  Realistically, now, they are the eleventh or twelfth best program in the Big Ten going forward.  Locksley is a great recruiter but he would have to land a monster class and then wait at least a year to compete for a conference championship. The reality is that may never happen.  Needed to keep his job – Continue to feast on the bad Big Ten teams and give their fans hope.  Prediction – They will be bowling and might scare one or two good B1G teams but that’s about it. Locksley probably gets another year but who knows when the reins tighten.
14. Scott Satterfield (Cincinnati) – This still feels like a bad hire.  I get that they just joined the Big XII and maybe they now have their footing in their new conference.  I’m not the only one, though.  Many wrinkled their noses when Satterfield moved from Louisville to Cincinnati. And look at the Cardinals compared to the Bearcats. Yikes.  Needed to keep his job – To be in contention for a bowl game going into late November.  Prediction – I have them at five wins this season so technically they would have a shot in the final two or three weeks.
15. Pat Narduzzi (Pittsburgh) – 2022 seems so long ago at Pitt. Last year was a debacle and this year doesn’t look a whole lot better. Adding Cal and SMU doesn’t help (although adding Stanford might for now). Needed to keep his job – Heading back to a bowl game. Prediction – I have the Panthers winning 4 games so conversations will be had in the offseason for sure.

Doubtful Shitcanning (although it still could happen)

16. Kalani Sitake (BYU) – Many will be upset with this choice.  There is some logic behind it, though.  Do I truly believe Sitake will be fired?  No. However…..I also don’t see the Cougs doing too well this year with a tough Big XII schedule. So will Sitake be on a bit shorter leash next season? I think so. And again, you never know what might happen. Now watch them win ten games and be in contention for the playoff.  Needed to keep his job – Honestly? Just don’t fall to the basement of the conference.  Prediction – Ummmmm…..they’re going to be much closer to the bottom than the top of the Big XII.
17. Kenni Burns (Kent State) – Here’s another school where one coach has had success over the past couple decades and no one else.  Worst part is Sean Lewis was available! But they were not going to turn their back on young Kenni just yet. There has to be some improvement shown though.  Needed to keep his job – Have some real competitive MACtion games.  Prediction – I got them winning once in the MAC, twice overall. The leash will be quite short for Kennith in 2025.
18. Tony Sanchez (New Mexico State) – I honestly put UNLV in the bracket first.  I totally forgot Sanchez was in Las Cruces.  The entire state of New Mexico is a rough place to coach. The cross-state (kind of) Lobos have a bit of hype with Bronco Mendenhall coming back to the coaching profession to try to turn UNM into at least an average Mountain West team. As for the Aggies, they lost their great coach and great quarterback. Might be a longer year than usual for them.  Needed to keep his job – Try and look like the Aggies of the last two seasons and not the Aggies of the five decades previous to that. Prediction – They should be close to bowl eligibility but need to make some hay in the midtable of Conference USA.
19. Kenny Dillingham (Arizona State) – No one is expecting much from the Sun Devils this season.  This is a good thing. They need a year or two to start getting the kind of team that can start making some noise in the Big XII. But….they still have to look somewhat decent because if they are the worst Power Four team then things might heat up in the offseason.  Needed to keep his job – At least three wins and stay out of the conference basement apartment.  Prediction – Got them at three wins and winning one conference game which would be enough to not be last place. Crisis averted!
20. Ryan Day (Ohio State) – WHERE THE FUCK IS LOU HOLTZ?  MAKE HIM LOOK AT THE GOD DAMN PREDICTION FOR THE MOTHERFUCKING BUCKEYES! I do find it a bit odd that some are calling for change in Columbus. I mean if they do really bad (for a tOSU team) then sure OK but does anyone think they will be anything less than a Top 10 team?  Needed to keep his job – Be over .500BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA I couldn’t type that with a straight face.  Prediction – They are headed to the playoff as I mentioned above and Day, even without a title, is going to come out of this season looking a lot better than last year I think.

I thought of putting Nate Dreiling on the list but I don’t think that’s fair. For one, he is still only the interim head coach for Utah State because Blake Anderson might be a bit of a dick. And two, the treatment of interim head coaches at the FBS level is all over the place and prestige of program means nothing. I wish Coach Dreiling good luck.

Fuck.

I mean, hey it’s time for my Heisman ballot! Don’t remember what happened last year with my ballot? Actually, Jordan Travis might have had an outside shot if he hadn’t got injured. The winner, Jayden Daniels, was #10 on my list and honestly that might be better than my “ballot” most years. I suck so bad at this and I don’t get why. Anyway, here is my 2024 Heisman ballot.

My Totally Terrible Heisman Ballot

1. Dillon Gabriel, Oregon – Gabriel is NOT the odds-on favourite to win the Heisman this season but he is either #2 or #3 in most predictions. I think with my pick of the Ducks winning the natty, this feels somewhat safe. Perhaps a Dennis Dixon-esque year (before the injury in that wild 2007 season) coming?
2. Carson Beck, Georgia – This guy is the odds-on favourite to win it all (the Heisman, not the national title although I’m sure many have Georgia winning as well). I can see a few mediocre games on his SEC schedule and it will be just enough to keep him out of the top spot.
3. Quinn Ewers, Texas – Ewers will almost definitely leave Austin after the season (paving the way for Arch Manning) and he has all the tools to potentially win the award. Just staying ahead of Manning on the depth chart might be enough of a push for the mighty Quinn to have a huge season on the Forty Acres.
4. Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss – With Quinshon Judkins gone to Ohio State, I can see a lot of PEW! PEW! PEWing! in Oxford this season. If the Rebels are going to go far into the playoff this season, they will need Dart throwing the ball a bunch this season. I think Lane would agree with me.
5. Jalen Milroe, Alabama – The fourth SEC player in the Top 5. Get used to it (I think). I can’t even start to imagine how often Milroe’s insane touchdown pass in the Iron Bowl will be replayed if he ascends to the top of this list during the season.
6. Cam Ward, Miami – Back to throwing the ball all over the field, with all due respect to Damien Martinez, Ward was the biggest transfer portal pick up and he will be expected to be the driver of the Canes’ defense. And normally I would say that teams with really good running games will make it tough for the quarterback to win the Heisman but I think it will be enough of a change of pace that Ward could go off in quite a few games.
7. Riley Leonard, Notre Dame – With no Audric Estime on the field for the Irish, they will lean heavily on Leonard. More than they leaned on Sam Hartman last season. I see Leonard putting up big numbers for a program that’s not used to having huge QB stats.
8. Nico Iamaleava, Tennessee – I shouldn’t be hesitant to put a freshman on these lists. Yes, there is very little proof he can perform for a whole season at the college level but man did he ever look good in the Vols’ bowl game win last year. If Tennessee makes it to the College Football Playoff (I don’t predict they will) then Nico rockets up this list.
9. Avery Johnson, Kansas State – Speaking of schools that don’t exactly light it up through the air, the Wildcats will see a bit of a different kind of football this fall. Not saying Johnson can’t run the ball because he can but he showed he can air it out when he was the bowl game MVP last year at the Pop Tarts Bowl. Again, if KSU can somehow make it to the CFP, he would be much higher on this list.
10. Shedeur Sanders, Colorado – Don’t leave. Colorado will be a bit better this year. I still don’t have them making it to a bowl game but if they do, it will be mostly on the shoulders of Sanders (although Travis Hunter will also contribute a lot). Sanders is very talented and will be a first round pick next draft so expect him to put up some massive numbers under center.

Honourable Mention

• Will Howard, Ohio State
• Jackson Arnold, Oklahoma
• Noah Fifita, Arizona
• D.J. Uiagalelei, Florida State
• Garrett Nussmeier, LSU
• Brady Cook, Missouri
• Donovan Edwards, Michigan
• Omarion Hampton, North Carolina
• Grayson McCall, NC State

Look if one of these players in the Top 10 win the Heisman, I will giving myself a lot of kudos. Pointing the fingers at myself, Rob Van Dam style.

And that ends the predictions. That’s it! We are almost there! Three days away from Week Zero. Can you believe it? I am so fucking stoked for a schedule that is pretty fucking awful. But hey, a game in Ireland starts the day and the day ends with a Hawaii Test for those that can find a way to watch (check out the Team1 Sports app…that should help).

I will have the (short) Week Zero schedule later this week and then the NFL preview for this coming season. It’s almost never a great preview but I do it because that’s what I do. Enjoy the rest of your week!