TORONTO — The game that the CFL Simulation pegged last week as the most likely matchup for the 111th Grey Cup had a big impact on this week’s simulation results.
The BC Lions’ 37-23 takedown of the Montreal Alouettes was impressive on a number of fronts. They handed the Als their second loss of the season and snapped their five-game win streak. The Lions made the longest trip in the league, flying from Vancouver out to Montreal and managed to beat the Als as they came out of a bye week. A win over a now 10-2 team on the road carries a lot of weight for the Simulation. The Lions reap the benefits of that win here this week. They are now the league leaders in odds to win the 111th Grey Cup, sitting at 48.98 per cent.
Also feeling the love this week are the Edmonton Elks. Winners of five of their last six and plugging away at making that 0-7 start a distant memory, the Elks moved into fourth place in the West with their 37-16 win over the Calgary Stampeders. As they’ve stacked wins and tapped into the power of their offence — while their defence came up with an incredible five-interception showing this past Saturday night — the Elks’ postseason hopes have soared; at least in the digital mind of the Simulation. The Elks have the second-highest probability of winning the Grey Cup, with a 13.29 per cent chance, just a hair ahead of the Alouettes (13.23).
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Check out this week’s edition of the CFL Simulation to see where your team stands as we head into Week 15.
*C: Clinched a particular outcome
*E: Eliminated from achieving a particular outcome
| ODDS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS | |
| Team (projected 2024 record) | Projection |
| Montreal (13-5) | C |
| Ottawa (11-6-1) | 99.97% |
| BC (11-7) | 99.61% |
| Winnipeg (10-8) | 89.80% |
| Toronto (8-10) | 85.05% |
| Edmonton (9-9) | 72.72% |
| Saskatchewan (7-10-1) | 46.77% |
| Hamilton (5-13) | 3.46% |
| Calgary (6-12) | 2.62% |
| ODDS TO HOST A PLAYOFF GAME | |
| Team | Projection |
| Montreal | 99.70% |
| Ottawa | 97.43% |
| BC | 97.21% |
| Winnipeg | 62.28% |
| Edmonton | 29.69% |
| Saskatchewan | 10.61% |
| Toronto | 2.84% |
| Calgary | 0.22% |
| Hamilton | 0.02% |
| ODDS TO WIN EAST | |
| Team | Projection |
| Montreal | 72.25% |
| Ottawa | 27.72% |
| Toronto | 0.03% |
| Hamilton | E |
| ODDS TO WIN WEST | |
| Team | Projection |
| BC | 74.72% |
| Winnipeg | 20.77% |
| Edmonton | 3.56% |
| Saskatchewan | 2.98% |
| Calgary | 0.03% |
| ODDS TO APPEAR IN 111TH GREY CUP | |
| Team | Projection |
| BC | 63.79% |
| Montreal | 55.62% |
| Ottawa | 38.29% |
| Winnipeg | 17.95% |
| Edmonton | 16.96% |
| Toronto | 4.22% |
| Saskatchewan | 2.98% |
| Hamilton | 0.16% |
| Calgary | 0.03% |
| ODDS TO WIN 111TH GREY CUP | |
| Team | Projection |
| BC | 48.98% |
| Edmonton | 13.29% |
| Montreal | 13.23% |
| Winnipeg | 12.37% |
| Ottawa | 9.74% |
| Saskatchewan | 1.59% |
| Toronto | 0.76% |
| Hamilton | 0.03% |
| Calgary | 0.01% |
| MOST LIKELY 111TH GREY CUP MATCHUPS | |
| Team | Projection |
| BC-Montreal | 35.45% |
| BC-Ottawa | 24.43% |
| Winnipeg-Montreal | 9.60% |
| Edmonton-Montreal | 9.08% |
| Winnipeg-Ottawa | 6.93% |