Best Bills vs Dolphins Same-Game Parlay Picks for TNF Week 2

Jan 7, 2024; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) runs up the middle against the Buffalo Bills during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

• The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins kick off Week 2 of the NFL Season on Thursday Night Football
• Today’s Bills vs Dolphins same-game parlay starts with the game total staying under
• Below, see all three-legs of a +783 SGP for Bills vs Dolphins on TNF

The Buffalo Bills head down to Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins for Thursday Night Football in Week 2 of the 2024 NFL season. Kickoff is set for 8:15 pm ET.

Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins will be looking to put an end to their home misery against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills, after losing three straight in Miami to their AFC East rivals.

Touchdowns typically come fast and furious when Buffalo and Miami take the field. However, that only serves to push the game-total line to a total these two teams don’t usually hit against each other. That’s why tonight’s three-leg Bills vs Dolphins SGP focuses on these teams staying under and results in a possible +783 payout.

Bills vs Dolphins Same-Game Parlay Picks

For my Thursday Night Football same-game parlay, I’m relying on how a pair of high-scoring offenses surprisingly tend to hit lower point totals when facing one another. The total odds for this NFL same-game parlay works out to +783, where a $100 wager would net a $783 profit, but only if all three legs hit.

Odds as of September 11th at DraftKings. Claim the latest DraftKings promos before betting on Bills vs Dolphins.

Bills vs Dolphins SGP Pick #1: Under 48.5 Total Points

At face value, I know this one feels a little counterintuitive, but hear me out!

Yes, the Bills crushed their O/U in Week 1 by 16.5 points. We also know how high-octane the Tua-to-Tyreek connection can be. However, if slightly less-recent evidence is considered, we should expect fewer Thursday night fireworks than the total of 48.5 points suggests.

Since 2018, Bills/Dolphins games have gone over in 8 of 13 games with Josh Allen under center. But since it’s been Allen vs Tua, they’ve gone over in just 4 of 8 games since 2020. When playing at Hard Rock Stadium, the over has hit just once out of their last four meetings.

Strangely, of those last four games in Miami, the Bills and Dolphins would go either over or under the game total by at least 12.5 points. In other words, if the line goes high, the scoring stays low for these two, and vice versa.

In games where they’ve stayed under, the O/U was set at 47.5, 54.5, and 48 points. And where is the line at for Thursday? Right in the 48-49 point range.

The main reason I’m taking the under is the defensive quality on both sides. Ranked 9th and 10th, respectively, last season, the Buffalo and Miami defenses both began slowly last weekend but would eventually exert their dominance. Were it not for a Cardinals kickoff return for a TD, the Bills and Dolphins would have combined for just three second-half points allowed in Week 1.

Bills vs Dolphins Same-Game Parlay Pick #2: Tua Tagovailoa Under 265.5 Pass Yards

Again, we’re relying on past performances to guide us here and, in the case of Tua Tagoavailoa’s passing yards against Buffalo, historically the returns are on the modest side.

Excluding a Week 2 loss in 2021 where he only played nine snaps, Tagovailoa has averaged just over 240 passing yards across six games against the Bills. Subtract a massive 361-yard performance from late in the 2020 season and his average drops to 216 yards per game.

This isn’t to say that Tua can’t cook; after all, he lead the league in Passing Yards in 2023 and QBR in 2022. However, in this specific matchup, it’s far more telling when you realize he’s gone 1-7 against the Bills in his career – a big reason why my colleague is taking Buffalo in his Bills vs Dolphins prediction – with the lone win being the result of a solid defensive effort coming to the rescue of a shaky offense and the notorious “butt punt.”

Bills vs Dolphins SGP Pick #3: James Cook Anytime TD

My final SGP for Thursday night is unquestionably the biggest risk, but if we’re talking about letting someone cook, let’s start with the Bills running back.

As far as the Bills go the obvious Anytime TD pick should be Josh Allen, particularly after bagging two TDs in the season opener last week and nearly averaging a Rushing TD per game last season.

But the contrast in his career Rush TD numbers (55 TDs in 95 games) against his Miami-specific stats (5 TDs in 13 games) and you could argue that the Dolphins are adept at stopping Allen before he hits the endzone.

For what it’s worth, Allen targeted ten different players with passes in last weekend’s win over the Cardinals, so picking an Anytime TD in the Bills’ receiving core will be a crapshoot. He’ll also be nursing an injury to his non-throwing hand, which may result in Allen being less inclined to hit the open field. All of this is what leads me to Cook.

Roy Lopez (#98) does a fantastic job preventing Connor McGovern (#66) from climbing to the second level, allowing Kyzir White (#7) to get through free

Luckily for the Bills, James Cook has great vision and is able to make a quick cut and gain 11 yards on this inside zone play pic.twitter.com/D6yzdWOI4C

— Patrick Sypher (@nohuddlenfl_) September 9, 2024

Despite having the 7th-best rush defense in the NFL last season, the Dolphins were tied for ninth-worst when defending against rushing TDs. If their game plan is to focus on Allen running with the ball, this could open the door for Cook to bag his first touchdown of the season.