Expert & Computer Upset Predictions

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) makes a pass against Detroit Lions during the first half at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday, September 8, 2024.

• Matt McEwan is offering his expert NFL moneyline picks alongside his formula’s moneyline picks
• The two sides only agree on one predicted upset pick for NFL Week 2
• See the underdogs each are picking to win straight up in Week 2

Betting on Week 2 of any NFL season always presents a unique challenge, as we try to figure out what we should trust from each team’s first game. Are they as good/bad as they showed in Week 1? Were they just playing a really good/bad opponent? Did they / their opponent just put forth a really good/bad performance? With very little to build an opinion on, handicapping Week 2 can be tough at times. However, the good news is sportsbooks are in the same boat – they don’t know anymore than we do.

So, I see it as another opportunity to find some bad lines, specifically betting the moneylines of teams who I do not believe should be underdogs in Week 2. I got off to a bit of a tough start – really felt good about the Colts and Broncos picks … – last week, going 1-4 on my NFL moneyline picks, losing 2.8 units. I’m not going to get it all back in one week, but plan to get myself back close to even with the underdogs I’m backing in Week 2.

I have also called upon the help of my SBD score predicting formula, which will serve us our NFL computer picks for Week 2. Since I’m the one who created this formula, I wrote down my picks before looking at what it was predicting to try and remove any bias. Let’s see how man does against his own machine!

Week 2 NFL Moneyline Picks

Before you go and say, “eight underdogs to win straight up is crazy!” please consider that my SBD formula also predicted the Bills would upset the Dolphins on Thursday night. So, it technically has nine underdogs winning in Week 2, and is off to a good start.

My formula went 2-3 on its moneyline picks (only counting underdogs it picked to win straight up) in Week 1, losing 0.15 units off 1 unit bets. As I said on Twitter/X last week when revealing my formula’s picks, Week 1 is difficult for the formula, as it is forced to rely mostly on last year’s data. But Week 2 is also a little problematic, as it is forced to rely a little too heavily on a small sample size (Week 1). As the year goes on, this formula only gets better.

I won’t try to justify the computer moneyline picks, and am not going to reveal what goes into the formula (you don’t ask the Colonel, “what’s in the chicken?”), but will give you some analysis on my two NFL moneyline picks below.

The odds above are the best lines available at the time of writing this. Be sure to check in with our NFL odds before placing your bets to ensure you get the best price on your bet at that time!

Browns Over Jaguars

The only NFL moneyline bet that I cashed last week was fading the Browns, but now I’m betting on them. The reason for fading Cleveland last week was largely because I had no faith in Deshaun Watson in a game that I felt he would need to score some points. It was a great call!

Looking to Cleveland’s Week 2 opponent, the Jaguars, I do not think Watson will face that same pressure / negative game script. I don’t think Jacksonville’s offense can score the same way Dallas’ did last week, and Kevin Stefanski will put forth a very run-heavy gameplan for this week.

On top of that, I like the Browns’ defense to bounce back after an awful showing – though, the offense didn’t help them whatsoever – last week. This was one of the league’s best units last year, and was supposed to be just as good this season. Give me the Browns defense and Jerome Ford on the road at +140 odds!

• Pick: Browns moneyline (+140 at ESPN Bet)

Rams Over Cardinals

This one isn’t too big of an upset, but since I’m getting plus-odds, it counts! I’m not sure if this line is the result of people panicking that Puka Nacua is on IR, reactions from last week, or just the Rams getting no respect. I do not think LA should be dogs in this game.

If this is about no Nacua, let me remind you this team won a Super Bowl with Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek, and 24 snaps from Odell Beckham Jr, who wasn’t in his prime to start with, before he left the game with a knee injury. They still have Kupp and I would argue Demarcus Robinson and Tyler Johnson are an upgrade over the previous names.

If it’s a reaction to last week, I think it’s a poor one. The Rams nearly beat the Lions, who might be the best team in the NFC, in Week 1, taking them to overtime and losing the game without possessing the ball. (Can we just make the playoff OT rule the all-the-time OT rule??) They did this with 25 snaps out of Nacua. I appreciate that the Cardinals looked pretty good in the first half against the Bills, but once Buffalo remembered to keep Kyler Murray in the pocket, it was game over.

Sean McVay is 13-2 against the Cardinals, and while Jonathan Gannon was not the head coach in Arizona for many of those losses, he was on the sideline for the 26-9 and 37-14 thumpings last year. And yes, Kyler did play in that second game.

• Pick: Rams moneyline (+102 at FanDuel)

You can actually get a little boost on the Rams moneyline at Fanatics Sportsbook, if you would like. They offer a 15% profit boost on any bet almost every day. If you’re not already signed up, you can also get a great signup offer with our Fanatics Sportsbook promo code. 

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