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Before we get into the NFL Week 7, the Buffalo Bills held off the New York Jets, 23-20, on Monday night in a game that didn’t seem like it should have been that close.
Aaron Rodgers did complete the fourth Hail Mary of his career just before halftime, and the Jets’ defense is seriously legit, despite the firing of head coach Robert Saleh after Week 6.
(Oh, and did the Jets seem any different without Saleh on the field? The problem may not have been the former defensive mastermind of the San Francisco 49ers).
We did see some intriguing numbers out of the Bills. Backup tailback Ray Davis had 116 scrimmage yards in the first half, the most by any Buffalo rookie in any half in 44 years.
He ended the night with 97 rushing yards on 20 carries and 55 receiving yards on three catches.
So while James Cook (toe) is on the shelf, the running game seems to be in good hands. Another running back gaining attention is Carolina’s Chuba Hubbard, who is in a contract year.
He ran for 92 yards on Sunday in the loss to Atlanta, giving him 407 rushing yards combined in his last four games.
With rookie Jonathon Brooks’ return from the injured list looming as early as next week, Hubbard could be an intriguing trade option for a Panthers team going nowhere.
Going into Week 7, don’t miss our top NFL sports betting picks.
NFL Week 7: Top Games to Keep an Eye – Odds & Expert Analysis
Did you know that all four teams in the NFC North are 4-2 or better? They also lead the NFL in positive point differential.
Green Bay hosts Houston this week, Chicago has its bye week, and Detroit heads to Minnesota, so it will be interesting to see how those records shift.
That Lions-Vikings showdown is on our list this week, but we’ll start with Thursday’s game.
Harbaugh Bowl in the playoffs if the season ended today. pic.twitter.com/vVjSTbLLp5
— NFL (@NFL) October 15, 2024
Denver Broncos (+1) at New Orleans Saints
When: TNF, October 17, 8:15 pm ET, Amazon Prime Video
Denver took a trip to the woodshed this past weekend, courtesy of the L.A. Chargers – although Bo Nix did lead a spirited comeback in the second half that fell short. Nix is 2-1 as a starting quarterback away from the Mile High City this year. The Saints will be starting rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler as Derek Carr is still on the shelf. Rattler took four sacks in his first start last week against Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers ran out to an early 17-0 lead before New Orleans came back to make things interesting. The Bucs threw a second-half shutout and won, 51-27, in front of the Saints’ home crowd. Denver is second in the league with 22 sacks, and they should be able to get after Rattler at home. Do the Broncos bounce back? Yes.
NFL Pick: Broncos to cover and win outright.
Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) at Atlanta Falcons
When: Sunday, October 20, 1:00 pm ET, FOX
Don’t look now, but the Falcons look like an intriguing dark horse in the NFC at NFL Week 7, as Kirk Cousins is coming through in the clutch repeatedly. He’s been better away from Mercedes-Benz Stadium than he has been at home, but tailbacks Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson combined for over 200 yards on the ground last week, and the Seattle defense has not been stopping the run lately. The Seahawks are on a three-game skid straight up and a five-game skid against the spread. If you can’t stop the run and you can’t protect the ball, then you’re not going to win anywhere.
NFL Pick: Falcons to win and cover.
Detroit Lions (+2) at Minnesota Vikings
When: Sunday, October 20, 1:00 pm ET, FOX
Defensive end Aidan Hutchinson went down for the season in the Lions’ romp over Dallas on Sunday. He had 7 ½ sacks already – the same total as the entire rest of the Detroit defense. The other members of the front seven can pick up the slack, and the Lions are also getting vintage Jared Goff now. Over the past two weeks, he has gone 36 of 43 for 607 yards and five touchdowns without a pick. Minnesota went to London and then got their bye, and they can move to a perfect 6-0 with a win if they can keep Sam Darnold out of harm’s way. Detroit beat the Vikings in Minneapolis for the first time in five seasons a year ago – can they make it two wins in two years? We say yes.
NFL Pick: Lions to cover and win outright.
Carolina Panthers (+7.5) at Washington Commanders
When: Sunday, October 20, 4:05 pm ET, CBS
Jayden Daniels weathered a ton of pressure from the Cleveland and Baltimore defenses. He led the Commanders to a rout of the Browns, and the Ravens only beat Washington by a touchdown. Carolina doesn’t have nearly the strength and speed in its front seven, so Daniels should have a lot more time in the pocket. The Panthers can move the ball a bit with Andy Dalton at quarterback, and while Washington’s defense is respectable, it’s not a shutdown unit yet. So we see Washington winning – and we see a lot of points ending up on the board.
NFL Pick: Washington to win and cover – and take the over (50.5).
NFL Week 7 Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) at San Francisco 49ers
When: Sunday, October 20, 4:25 pm ET, FOX
How is this game not on Sunday or Monday night? The rematch of last year’s Super Bowl might be just as good as the Minnesota-Detroit game in the early time slot. Kansas City head coach Andy Reid is 21-4 coming out of the bye week as head coach. However, that includes a 21-17 setback against Philadelphia in a Super Bowl rematch from 2023. The 49ers had a nice, long break after playing last Thursday, and they’re getting healthy again (although Christian McCaffrey is still on the shelf). The Chiefs should have their run defense in place, thanks to Chris Jones, and despite the loss of wide receiver Rashee Rice, expect Kansas City to have plenty of offensive legerdemain in place.
NFL Pick: Chiefs to win and cover.
NFL Week 7 Baltimore Ravens (-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
When: MNF, October 21, 8:15 pm ET, ESPN
For the second week in a row, Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson meets a fellow Heisman Trophy winner when he visits Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield. The Ravens are dominating games on the ground, picking up 205.3 yards per contest, and they roll in on a four-game winning streak, with road wins under their belt from Dallas and Cincinnati. Tampa Bay’s offense has been cooking as well, putting up 29.7 points per game. Could this turn into a track meet? Remember that Baltimore’s pass defense permitted five touchdown passes from Joe Burrow two weeks ago and that the Washington Commanders were able to hang 27 on Baltimore last week. I think Derrick Henry’s presence in the Baltimore running game makes the key difference here, but there will once again be a lot of points.
NFL Pick: Ravens to win and cover, take the over (50.5).
Week 6 is done and here we are recycling this graphic. pic.twitter.com/RhSOfikKrB
— NFL (@NFL) October 15, 2024
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