As the final weeks of the CFL season wind down the six playoff teams have been determined and it feels as though we are in a holding pattern until the divisional semifinals, right?
NOT SO FAST MY FRIENDS! We have a big game in Toronto on Saturday afternoon as the once vaunted Ottawa REDBLACKS come to town attempting to salvage their playoff positioning. They’ll face an Argonauts team that has been up and down all year long but comes in off a huge road win in Winnipeg and their first season sweep of the Bombers in nearly a decade!
Toronto did enough to hold its rivals from Hamilton out of the playoffs, a Tiger-Cats team that was treating every game as though it was a post-season game over the last month out of necessity. Now that weekly warrior mentality has shifted up the QEW as Toronto clinched its spot in the dance last week in what really felt like a prototypical November CFL game with win-or-go-home stakes.
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This week for Toronto it’s win and STAY home — after a quick final week trip to Edmonton — a place where the Argos are 6-2 this season. With Ottawa posting an equally impressive 6-1-1 mark at home and the overall dominance of home field advantage this season across the CFL, this game won’t determine who wins the Eastern Semi-Final. It will, however, play a massive role in the feeling of that game and unquestionably will help whoever claims hosting duties in two weeks time get closer to an Eastern Final matchup in Montreal.
With all that and so much more on the line, here are the five factors I believe will determine the outcome between the REDBLACKS and the Argonauts on Saturday at BMO Field.
PENALTIES
If you were watching the Thanksgiving Monday game between Montreal and Ottawa, you saw CFL on TSN sideline reporter extraordinaire Kenzie Lalonde do a story on the REDBLACKS’ penalty woes as of late.
Typically a very disciplined team through head coach Bob Dyce’s tenure, Ottawa currently has the most penalties per game (8.3) for a total of 132 on the season and a CFL high 82.3 yards per game allowed in penalties for a staggering 1,317 yards.
If Ottawa gives Toronto free yards this week it won’t help their cause. If they give Toronto free yards in the playoffs they will dramatically increase their degree of difficulty in making it to Montreal for the Eastern Final.
RUSHING YARDS AND TIME OF POSSESSION
The Argos’ run game, led by Ka’Deem Carey, should be a significant factor in Saturday’s playoff preview against the REDBLACKS (Arthur Ward/CFL.ca)
These two teams rank eighth and ninth in the CFL for touchdown passes and explosive pass plays. The running game will need to take control for whoever wins. The smart lean here is on Toronto, as they lead the CFL in rushing yards per game (124.4) while Ottawa sits in seventh (86.4). If Toronto can run the rock for 40 yards more than Ottawa in combination with other factors like turnovers and penalties, they should control time of possession. That’s another slight advantage (30:12 per game) they hold on the season over Ottawa (29:07 per game).
SUDDEN CHANGE MOMENTS
Chad Kelly loves to take a home run shot after his defence gets a turnover. Will the REDBLACKS be ready on short notice? They better be, because it’s coming. Ottawa has a CFL-low 40 turnovers on the year, with 17 interceptions and 13 fumbles lost. Toronto sits even in the turnover ratio while Ottawa is minus-12 entering Week 20.
Big, splashy plays after turnovers. Book it.
PASS PROTECTION
Last week against a well-respected Bombers’ offensive line the Argos’ pash rush got home seven times. The average CFL game has about 55 offensive snaps. If you’re bringing down the opposing quarterback on one out of every eight snaps or so, you’re going to like the outcome more often than not.
Five sacks in the first half for Toronto!
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With 44 sacks now on the season Toronto is seven clear of second place BC for top spot in mayhem created, but both Ottawa and Toronto rank near the bottom of the CFL in sacks allowed. Each team keeping their respective quarterbacks clean will be huge on Saturday.
SCORE ZONE
While I mentioned earlier about Ottawa having a CFL-low 16 touchdown passes, they rank second in passing yards per game (288.1) which means they move the football and don’t finish at nearly a high enough rate.
Toronto has only allowed 65 opponent snaps inside their 20-yard-line (first) and Ottawa has only run 87 offensive snaps in the score zone (ninth). If and when the REDBLACKS get deep in Toronto territory they simply HAVE to finish with touchdowns to win the game and the looming playoff rematch in two weeks’ time.