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Eight weeks down. How’s your team doing? pic.twitter.com/7qugCkQMDU

— NFL (@NFL) October 29, 2024

Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) at Atlanta Falcons

When: Sunday, November 3, 1:00 pm ET, FOX

Dallas is dead last in the NFL in rushing, at just 74.1 yards per game, and quarterback Dak Prescott hasn’t dealt well with the resulting pressure. He has multiple interceptions in the last three games, the first Cowboys quarterback with that kind of streak in 32 seasons. You might think that these offensive difficulties would keep the Cowboys from winning on the road, but if you look at the failed Dallas comebacks against Baltimore and San Francisco, you see that CeeDee Lamb is a difference-maker who can torch secondaries all by himself.

Also, the Falcons’ offense – while talented – is less consistent than some of the other teams that have been whipping Dallas lately. Kirk Cousins has a passer rating of just 86.0 in five home games, and all seven of his picks have come at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. If the Cowboys are going to win between now and their Thanksgiving date with the Giants, this is going to be the NFL Week 9.

NFL Pick: Cowboys to cover.

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Miami Dolphins (+6) at Buffalo Bills

When: Sunday, November 3, 1:00 pm ET, CBS

James Cook rumbled for 111 yards and two scores against a Seattle Seahawks team that has a decent running defense. When the Bills played Miami the first time, Cook had three total touchdowns. Josh Allen did throw his first pick off, 2024 last week, but the Bills still have a +11 turnover margin that leads the NFL. Miami has an eight-game losing streak in Buffalo, including the playoffs. Tua Tagovailoa looked solid in his return from the concussion protocol last week, but it wasn’t enough to get the win, and I don’t see the Dolphins doing enough against Buffalo’s defense.

NFL Pick: Bills to win and cover.

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L.A. Chargers (-2) at Cleveland Browns

When: Sunday, November 3, 1:00 pm ET, CBS

The Chargers have a four-game winning streak against Cleveland, but the Browns may have dug themselves out of their losing rut. Jameis Winston started at quarterback for the Browns in Week 8, and they stopped the Baltimore Ravens. Yes, the Chargers have better ball security than they did last year, but the Browns have enough going on defense to make Justin Herbert’s life miserable and to put the Chargers behind the chains. Nick Chubb is getting stronger every week back for the Browns, so it’s curious to see the Chargers coming in as road favorites.

NFL Pick: Browns to cover.

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New England Patriots (+3.5) at Tennessee Titans

When: Sunday, November 3, 1:00 pm ET, FOX

The Patriots beat the Jets last week to move even with them in the AFC East basement at 2-6, and how they head south to take on the only one-win team left in the AFC. The Titans turned the ball over four times in the beating that Detroit administered on Sunday. Drake Maye was looking good for the Patriots until he got knocked into the concussion protocol; Jacoby Brissett came on in relief and did enough to lead the Pats to the win. Brissett holds onto the ball too long, which means he takes too many sacks, but his ball security is solid – he only has one pick on the season. We have two offenses with a lot of problems squaring off, so don’t expect a lot of fireworks. The Patriots have the momentum, though.

NFL Pick: Patriots to cover.

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Washington Commanders (-3.5) at N.Y. Giants

When: Sunday, November 3, 1:00 pm ET, FOX

The New York Giants have built a culture of toughness and physicality under coach Brian Daboll. However, they also get in their own way more often than they should – pre-snap penalties, bone-headed play designs and other gaffes hurt them every week. Daniel Jones is a tough quarterback who isn’t afraid to take chances, but his unwillingness to anticipate with his throws keeps him from finding receivers fast enough, which really hurts the team in the red zone. So they stayed close to Pittsburgh on Monday night, but it wasn’t enough to get the win. Washington got caught in a grinder of a game against Chicago and needed some real luck to get the win on a Hail Mary. The Giants should be able to draw Washington into another defensive struggle.

NFL Pick: I don’t like either side of this point spread, but I am going to take the under (43.5).

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L.A. Rams (-1.5) at Seattle Seahawks

When: Sunday, November 3, 4:25 pm ET, FOX

Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are both back on the field, and the Rams’ offense has returned in full force. The Rams rolled over a Minnesota team with a legit defense last week, 30-20, with both of their elite receivers out there on the field. With tailback Kyren Williams, the Rams now have a fully balanced offense, and they head north to take on a Seattle team that has allowed 167.6 rushing yards per game over their last five games – dropping four of those. The Rams have three wins in their last four trips to Seattle, and given how the Seahawks have been playing, it will be four wins in five trips after Sunday.

NFL Pick: Rams to cover.

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Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Green Bay Packers

When: Sunday, November 3, 4:25 pm ET, FOX

No team has more takeaways that Green Bay does this season (19), but Detroit is in second with 15. Jared Goff hasn’t thrown a pick in four straight games, so it’s going to be tough for the Packers to add to that takeaway total. The Lions are toying with opponents on offense right now, and their defense is opportunistic enough to cause problems. I’m not locking in any wagers on this game until we know whether Jordan Love or Malik Willis will be the Green Bay quarterback, but even if Love takes the field, the lingering effects of that groin injury will limit his ability to run – as well as to plant and throw deeper balls.

NFL Pick: Lions to win and cover.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9) at Kansas City Chiefs MNF

When: Monday, November 4, 8:15 pm ET, ABC/ESPN

Yes, the Chiefs are still unbeaten despite a number of key injuries, but Tampa Bay is doing the same thing. They hung with Atlanta last week despite missing both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Baker Mayfield still threw for 330 yards and three scores (with a pair of picks) in the loss. The Buccaneers’ backs are against the wall, so even though Kansas City’s defense is elite, Tampa Bay does not quit. The Bucs have the #30 defense in the NFL, so this could turn into a track meet, but the Chiefs’ offense has been understated all season. This line is too large, but the Chiefs should still come out undefeated.

NFL Pick: Buccaneers to cover.

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How the playoffs would look if the season ended today. pic.twitter.com/87FddVTU1v

— NFL (@NFL) October 29, 2024

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