Head To Head: Who has the edge in the Eastern Final?

All season long the East Division has run through Montreal. Since essentially July it was apparent: even through injuries to leading players like quarterback Cody Fajardo and receiver Tyson Philpot, that any of Hamilton, Ottawa or Toronto who were interested in making their way West for the 111th Grey Cup would have to first battle their way through the Alouettes and the endless energetic frenzy of Percival Molson Stadium.

After an explosive ending of the REDBLACKS season, Ryan Dinwiddie and the Argonauts now get their date with destiny and return to the place they ended Montreal’s 13-game winning streak of any kind in Week 6 and franchise record 10-game regular season win streak. Let’s break it down.

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QUARTERBACKS

At the beginning of the season Cody Fajardo separated himself from Toronto’s Cameron Dukes, Hamilton’s Bo Levi Mitchell and Ottawa’s Dru Brown in the East quarterback conversation. He did that by upping his deep ball accuracy, creating big plays down the field and tweaking the offence alongside head coach Jason Maas to the tune of 31.4 points per game through Montreal’s 5-0 start; a mark that would have cleared the league’s highest per-game scoring offence in Edmonton by nearly four points per game come end of season.

Then in Week 6 against Dukes and the Argonauts, Fajardo rolled to his right and tweaked his hamstring. As he immediately headed down the tunnel, with Chad Kelly ready to return a few weeks later the dynamic instantly changed.

Obviously it took Kelly a couple months to get up to speed, but he is there now as Fajardo continues to battle through the season long grind of wear and tear. If Tyson Philpot were still in the lineup I’d be more inclined to lean Montreal and Fajardo, but the way Kelly has synced up with Makai Polk and DaVaris Daniels makes me believe in this moment — which is what playoff football is all about — Kelly and the Argos have the upper hand.

ADVANTAGE: Toronto

RUNNING BACKS

Walter Fletcher has thrived catching passes this season, giving the Als an edge at the running back spot (Kevin Sousa/CFL.ca)

With Kelly playing the way he did in the Eastern Semi-Final victory over Ottawa, it’s going to take a full team effort from Montreal to protect home field. Thankfully the Alouettes have Walter Fletcher ready to step up in the backfield for an offence who I believe is significantly more interested in running the football consistently than Toronto is right now.

Of course the added bonus of Fletcher over Ka’Deem Carey is his receiving threat where he average 9.6 yards per catch this season on 85 targets and 71 catches. Those are monster numbers for a ‘back in the passing game to the tune of outpacing receivers like Kenny Lawler, Jalen Philpot and even Daniels in season long yardage.

ADVANTAGE: Montreal

RECEIVERS

This is the most difficult positional group to assess heading into the Eastern Final thanks to Toronto’s recent resurgence and Montreal’s injuries.

I believe if Austin Mack can have a 2023 type of impact in this game regardless of whether Damonte Coxie plays for Toronto, the Alouettes have the advantage. Given the fact that Mack currently enters the Eastern Final with just 10 catches on the year and no touchdowns since his return to the CFL, I have to believe Toronto’s corps gets the nod.

ADVANTAGE: Toronto

OFFENSIVE LINE

Pier-Olivier Lestage has emerged as a key piece to the Als’ offensive line (Minas Panagiotakis/CFL.ca)

Ryan Hunter is outstanding, Peter Nicastro is the quintessential CFL centre and Dejon Allen has done a tremendous job at tackle through the year. However, Montreal’s line is a more complete unit and is stronger on the interior thanks to Pier-Olivier Lestage dominating at guard while Nick Callender got the East All-CFL selection at tackle opposite the Argos’ Allen.

ADVANTAGE: Montreal

DEFENSIVE LINE

Jake Ceresna tied for the lead league in sacks this year, leading a dangerous Argo d-line into the Eastern Final (Bailey McLean/CFL.ca)

Toronto led the CFL in sacks and has the ability to rotate through a nauseating variety of pass rushers and interior pocket pushers. Montreal has adapted well after Shawn Lemon left the field with National Isaac Adeyemi-Berglund stepping up, but Toronto has the deeper unit.

The real dark horse here? A healthy Mustafa Johnson might nullify it all and give Montreal the advantage.

ADVANTAGE: Toronto

LINEBACKERS

Tyrice Beverette has been a heart-and-soul piece of the Alouettes’ defence this season (Minas Panagiotakis/CFL.ca)

I said last week in the Eastern Semi-Final breakdown that it’s nearly impossible to pick against Toronto’s Wynton McManis under any circumstances. McManis showed us why as he made a game-changing interception on Saturday, but Montreal’s duo of Tyrice Beverette and Darnell Sankey are stronger than any single man. Throw in stud rookie Geoffrey Cantin-Arku and there is only one answer.

ADVANTAGE: Montreal

DEFENSIVE BACKS

Kabion Ento, a hero of the 110th Grey Cup, has had a strong season playing cornerback for the Als (Minas Panagiotakis/CFL.ca)

While the REDBLACKS struggled in coverage against Kelly and the Argos Saturday, Toronto’s back end defensively met the moment and showed why anytime Toronto gets a turnover they are trying to score with it.

The Alouettes had more interceptions on the season (19) and are led by more than just standout free safety Marc-Antoine Dequoy, thanks to Dionté Ruffin becoming a true CFL standout, while Kabion Ento has really settled into his corner position nicely over the last two seasons.

ADVANTAGE: Montreal

KICKERS

Lirim Hajrullahu connected on a season-best 53-yard field goal in the Argos’ Eastern Semi-Final win over Ottawa (Bailey McLean/CFL.ca)

After not playing since Week 6, these two teams met in Week 17, ,where Kelly didn’t have a touchdown and Lirim Hajrullahu nailed all eight of his field goal attempts. It was required for the 37-31 victory and Hajrullahu delivered as he so often does.

Jose Maltos has been great for the Alouettes in replacement of David Coté, but Hajrullahu is special.

ADVANTAGE: Toronto

RETURNERS

He might have slowed his pace, but Janarion Grant remains ready to blow a game open on short notice. Head-to-head this year Grant scored a 103-yard kick return touchdown while James Letcher Jr. of the Alouettes had his own punt return house call. In a split decision, give me Grant.

ADVANTAGE: Toronto

SUMMARY

This game will be close. It will come down to decision making, execution and limiting errors that gift field position to the other team. Playoff football at its finest comes to Montreal on Saturday with the noise advantage overwhelmingly in support of the Als.

The only question now is whether Toronto’s big play offence can quiet the crowd and break the hearts of Alouettes fans dreaming of a trip to their second straight Grey Cup.