The offseason is getting ramped up and Atlanta seems to be focused on adding to its rotation. Per Mark Bowman of MLB.com, right-hander Nathan Eovaldi ranks near the top of the club’s offseason wish list.
Eovaldi, 35 in February, just declined his player option with the Rangers. He could have stayed in Texas for 2025 and made a $20MM salary but decided to head to the open market and assess his options. MLBTR recently predicted the veteran could land a guarantee of $44MM on a two-year deal as part of our annual Top 50 Free Agents list.
The righty is arguably the poster child for career success after a second Tommy John surgery. After returning from that operation, he struggled a bit in 2019 but has been quite consistent over the past five years. He has a 3.75 earned run average over those campaigns, striking out 24% of batters faced, limiting walks to a 5.6% rate and getting grounders at a 46.9% clip. His ERA finished between 3.63 and 3.87 in all five of those seasons with his other rate stats holding quite steady as well.
For Atlanta, starting pitching is a sensible target area. They just lost both Max Fried and Charlie Morton to free agency, opening two holes in the starting pitching mix. That leaves them with a core of Chris Sale, Reynaldo López and Spencer Schwellenbach but with question marks behind that threesome.
Spencer Strider will eventually be in the mix but will likely miss at least part of the season after undergoing internal brace surgery in April of last year. Griffin Canning was just acquired in the Jorge Soler deal but he is coming off a rough season in which he posted a 5.19 earned run average and his strikeout rate fell to 17.6% after being at 25.9% the year prior.
Ian Anderson is on the roster but hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2022 due to poor performance and Tommy John surgery. The club also has guys like Huascar Ynoa, AJ Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep, Bryce Elder and a few others, though no one in that group did much to impress in 2024.
Given that rotation picture, pursuing external additions makes plenty of sense, though the budget with naturally be a consideration. RosterResource projects the club for a $215MM payroll next year, just $20MM shy of 2024’s spending.
General manager Alex Anthopoulos has said the payroll will rise but it’s unclear by how much and there have been some recent signs that money could be tight. The aforementioned Soler deal did bring back Canning but was seen mostly as a salary dump. A few days ago, the club reworked the contracts of both López and lefty Aaron Bummer, in both cases shifting a few million bucks from the 2025 ledger to 2026. The club turned down a club option on Travis d’Arnaud even though Anthopoulos had previously suggested they would be picking that up to bring the catcher back for 2025.
The long-term books have plenty on them as well, thanks to the club’s penchant for signing incumbent players to extensions. Each of Strider, López, Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Ronald Acuña Jr., Sean Murphy, Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies are likely to be on the books through 2027, either due to guaranteed contracts or club options.
In addition to the club’s finances, there is also the track record to consider. Though they have been connected to some prominent free agents over the years, that hasn’t been their modus operandi. Per MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the largest guarantee they’ve even given a free agent is the $75.3MM they gave to Melvin Upton Jr. way back in 2012. Ozuna’s $65MM deal is their top free agent deal from more recent seasons. Their largest deal for a free agent starting pitcher was $60MM for Derek Lowe back in 2009 while $18MM for Cole Hamels is the biggest of the past five years.
Taking all that into consideration, Eovaldi is a logical target for the club. He’s been quite effective on the mound but his age and injury history will put a natural cap on his earning power. While pitchers like Fried, Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell and Jack Flaherty could require nine-figure commitments, Eovaldi will be in a different tier of free agency. Though Atlanta seems to have targeted Eovaldi, free agent starters who could command similar contracts include Yusei Kikuchi, Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, Nick Martinez, Nick Pivetta, Matthew Boyd, Andrew Heaney, Frankie Montas and others.