In today’s NHL Rumor Mill, a look at the latest speculation involving several notable pending restricted free agents.
SPORTSNET: Luke Fox recently looked at the latest speculation regarding this season’s top-12 restricted free agents. Here’s a look at several of the notables.
Fox believes the Edmonton Oilers could end up paying defenseman Evan Bouchard an average annual value of “somewhere in the $10.5 million range” on his next contract.
Edmonton Oilers defenseman Evan Bouchard (NHL Images).
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Bouchard’s production this season (seven points in 15 games) is below last season’s pace (82 points in 81 games). He’s on pace to barely reach 40 points, something he did in 2022-23 (42) and 2023-24 (40).
Bouchard’s earning an AAV of $3.9 million on his current deal. He’ll still get a substantial raise if he finishes with 40 points but not the $10.5 million that he’d be in line for if he reached 80 points.
New York Islanders blueliner Noah Dobson could get something nearing $8 million annually on an eight-year contract if general manager Lou Lamoriello wants to go long-term.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Dobson carries an AAV of $4 million on his current contract. He’s the Isles’ best puck-moving rearguard, netting 51 points in 2021-22, 49 points in 2022-23, and a career-high 70 last season. He’s been a bargain for them thus far but could seek between $7 million and $8 million on his next deal.
Fox suggests Dallas Stars center Wyatt Johnston could get something comparable to the seven-year, $7.14 million AAV signed by Matty Beniers with the Seattle Kraken. He also speculated a mid-term bridge deal as a possibility given teammates Jason Robertson, Thomas Harley and Logan Stankoven are in line for raises after 2025-26.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Johnston will be coming off his entry-level contract and will lack arbitration rights next summer. Stars management will hold all the leverage here.
A long-term comparable for New Jersey Devils blueliner Luke Hughes would be Brock Faber’s eight-year, $8.5 million AAV with the Minnesota Wild. That would elevate his annual salary over brother Jack’s $8 million.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Like Johnston, Luke will be completing his ELC and will have little leverage in negotiations. Management could be reluctant to pay him more than Jack at this stage of his career. A bridge deal could be an option here.
Buffalo Sabres forward JJ Peterka could seek something north of $7 million on a long-term deal if GM Kevyn Adams wants to use up some of his UFA years. A bridge contract could be the easier route.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Peterka is also on his ELC. He reached a career-high 50 points last season but is now on a point-per-game pace. He’ll be in line for over $7 million annually if he maintains that production throughout this season.
Re-signing forward Fabian Zetterlund could be a priority for San Jose Sharks GM Mike Grier. He’s off to a good start and is tight with teammate William Eklund. The rebuilding Sharks have plenty of cap space so a long-term deal is possible.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Zetterlund was among the few bright spots in an otherwise miserable 2023-24 campaign for the Sharks, finishing with 20 goals and 44 points. The 25-year-old winger carries an AAV of $1.45 million and has 10 points in 16 games this season, putting him on track for over 50 points. That could put him in line for around $5 million annually.
A comparable contract for Anaheim Ducks center Mason McTavish is the five-year, $6.25 million extension signed by Quinton Byfield with the Los Angeles Kings.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: McTavish is in the final season of his ELC. He had 43 points in 80 games during his rookie season (2022-23) and 42 points in 64 games last season. He’s on pace to exceed 50 points this season. Byfield got his deal after hitting 55 points last season.
Limited cap space could affect the New York Rangers’ efforts to re-sign K’Andre Miller. It’ll cost them $4.65 million to qualify his rights. Fox speculates a long-term deal could cost between $6 million and $6.5 million.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: The salary cap is projected to rise to $92 million for 2025-26, giving the Rangers over $25 million in cap space.
$12 million of that could go toward re-signing Igor Shesterkin. It’s believed they’ll try to trade Jacob Trouba and his $8 million cap hit next summer. That could give them enough to re-sign Miller and perhaps Kaapo Kakko and Ryan Lindgren. However, the long-term cap hit could make it difficult to retain Artemi Panarin before his UFA eligibility in 2026.
The Minnesota Wild’s tight budget and the rise of promising center prospects (Danila Yurov, Riely Heidt) could make it tricky to sign Marco Rossi to a long-term deal. GM Bill Guerin must keep an eye down the road when superstar Kirill Kaprizov is due for a new contract. Fox speculates a two-year bridge deal at $6.25 million annually could be an option.
SPECTOR’S NOTE: Rossi had 21 goals and 40 points as a rookie last season. He has 13 points in 14 games, putting him on track for around 80 points. However, Guerin will hold the leveral with Rossi coming off his ELC.