On a particularly busy day on the offseason calendar, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:
1. Rule 5 deadline day:
One of the under-the-radar busiest transactional days of the baseball year, this is the final day for teams to set their 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft (which takes place on December 11). Plenty of clubs will be facing some tricky decisions on which eligible prospects will be protected from the R5 with roster spots, and creating that roster space will result in some DFAs, releases, or perhaps trades of players already taking up room on the 40-man.
Teams have until 5pm CT today to finalize their rosters, so expect a pretty big flurry of moves to come later this afternoon. Eligible players who aren’t added to the 40-man could find themselves changing organizations on December 11, and there’s risk for teams in potentially losing an interesting prospect for virtually nothing.
2. Qualifying offer decisions due:
The 13 players who received qualifying offers from their teams have until 3pm CT to officially decide whether or not to accept or reject the one-year, $21.05MM contract. Nick Martinez has already agreed to accept his QO and remain with the Reds, but it appears that he’ll be the only member of the 13-player class to take the deal. As per recent reports, Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and Nick Pivetta are all likely to reject the qualifying offers in search of longer-term contracts in free agency. While there was perhaps a bit of question as to whether any of those pitchers could take the one-year payday, there is zero doubt that the other nine free agents issued QOs (Willy Adames, Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, Corbin Burnes, Teoscar Hernandez, Max Fried, Anthony Santander, Juan Soto, and Christian Walker) will reject the offer and test the open market.
If a player turns down the qualifying offer, there are consequences for both his former team and his next team, assuming the player signs elsewhere. The free agent’s former team will receive a compensatory pick in the 2025 draft, with the placement of that pick depending on the team’s status as a revenue-sharing team or luxury-tax payor. Likewise, clubs that sign a qualified free agent face a penalty in the form of surrendering money from the international draft pool or giving up at least one draft pick. While the QO penalty won’t stop a team from signing a superstar like Soto, we’ve seen in the past how rejecting a qualifying offer can effect offers for free agents who aren’t quite at the top of the market, so it will be interesting to see which (if any) of this year’s class could be impacted.
3. Manager Of The Year announced:
Each league will announce the winner of the Manager of the Year awards tonight at 5pm CT. All three American League finalists come from the AL Central, as the Guardians’ Stephen Vogt, the Royals’ Matt Quatraro, and the Tigers’ A.J. Hinch all led their teams from losing records in 2023 to playoff appearances in 2024. The improvement was especially pronounced in Kansas City, after Quatraro lost 106 games in his first season as the Royals’ skipper. Hinch led a big turn-around just within the 2024 campaign itself, as Detroit went from also-rans to an ALDS berth after going 31-13 over its last 44 regular-season games. Vogt had big shoes to fill in replacing Terry Francona in Cleveland, but Vogt made an immediate impact as the Guards won the AL Central and then advanced all the way to the ALCS.
Over in the National League, Padres skipper Mike Shildt is looking to become a two-time winner of the award, as he previously won the MOY in his previous job as the Cardinals’ manager in 2019. In his first season in San Diego, Shildt brought the Padres to a 93-win performance and then to the NLDS, where the club lost a heartbreaking five-game series against the eventual World Series champion Dodgers. Carlos Mendoza took the Mets a step further to the NLCS in his first year as a big league manager, as the Mets won 89 games and narrowly secured a wild card berth in what was initially expected to be something of a rebuild year for the organization. Expectations were also somewhat limited for the Brewers in the wake of Burnes being traded, Brandon Woodruff’s injury, and Craig Counsell’s departure, yet Pat Murphy kept the ship on course in his first year as Milwaukee’s manager. The longtime Brewers bench coach stepped into the big chair and immediately led the Crew to another NL Central crown.