As we prepare for the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby, it’s interesting to look at the hold that America’s oldest continuous sporting event on history. The founder of the Louisville Jockey Club Association and the Derby was Meriwether Lewis Clark, Jr. If his name sounds familiar, he was the grandson of William Clark, one of the two explorers (along with Meriwether Lewis) who explored the American Northwest. This race is older than the invention of the televisions that will carry it into sports betting parlors, bars, and homes around the world. It’s even older than the light bulb and the automobile. The race has always taken place on the dirt course at Churchill Downs, and it has always been limited to three-year-old horses. It originally ran 1 ½ miles, but starting in 1896, it dropped to 1 ¼ miles. As you think about your wagering for this year’s running, take a look at the latest odds for each horse and our insights.
Horse Racing: Run for the Roses is Ready! The Latest Kentucky Derby 2024 Picks and Predictions
- Dornoch +2000
- Sierra Leone +300
- Mystik Dan +200
- Catching Freedom +800
- Catalytic +3000
- Just A Touch +2000
- Honor Marie +2000
- Just Steel +1000
- T O Password +3000
- Forever Young +1000
- Track Phantom +2000
- West Saratoga +5000
- Domestic Product +3000
- Grand Mo the First +5000
- Fierceness +250
- Stronghold +200
- Resilience +2000
- Society Man +5000
- Epic Ride +3000
Endlessly +3000
The Analysis
Fierceness and Sierra Leone
The top two betting choices from the list are Fierceness and Sierra Leone. Fierceness won the Grade I Curlin Florida Derby, while Sierra Leone won the Grade I Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. Resilience comes with a lot more value but also won a top prep race at the Grade II Wood Memorial Stakes. This isn’t a field of cream puffs, though; Stronghold won the Grade I Santa Anita Derby, Catching Freedom won the Grade II Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, Endlessly won the Grade III Jeff Ruby Steaks, and Domestic Product won the Grade III Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby. Just Steel was the runner-up at the Grade I Arkansas Derby. All of these horses are looking to put together their best performances.
Of the other 13 horses, 10 of them either posted second-, third- or fourth-place finishes in the major prep races. T O Password and Forever Young are both unbeaten after seven races combined in their careers. Forever Young won the Grade II UAE Derby. Either one of those would be the first horse bred in Japan to walk away with the roses if they can get the win.
There are some standards that have worked historically to pick winners from fields so robust with talent. One has to do with the prep race where the horse finished either first or second. Races that carry over well are the Florida Derby, the Blue Grass Stakes, the Arkansas Derby, the Wood Memorial, and the Santa Anita Derby. These are all run within three to five weeks ahead of the Kentucky Derby.
Races that happen six to eight weeks before Churchill Downs and are less likely to predict victory on the first Saturday in May include the Tampa Bay Derby and the Louisiana Derby. The additional time off between the two races seems to make it tougher for one of those victors to come to Churchill Downs and win. Over the last 20 years, those two prep races have only produced four winners at Churchill Downs. The Jeff Ruby Steaks and the Lexington Stakes have combined to produce three horses who won the Kentucky Derby in their next race over the last 25 years. So horses that come out of these four early races shouldn’t get as much weight when you’re picking your horses for this weekend.
You’ll also want to look at whether a horse has improved over the course of the spring. This is these horses’ second season of racing, and they should be increasing in physical strength and speed. This isn’t always determined by place or even by time, depending on the conditions of the race. Instead, speed figures such as the Equibase system make comparison easier for horses that have entered races on different surfaces and tracks.
Another factor has to do with how you expect the race to be run as far as the early pace is concerned. Looking at the first half-mile to three-quarter of a mile is an important part of predicting the race. How many horses will try to jump out to an early lead? In 2022, that number was four, and the result was a :21.78 split at the first quarter-mile that was way too fast for a 1 ¼-mile race. Even the first half-mile split (:45.36) was significantly faster than average. As the leaders burned out, the door opened for Rich Strike to come back from 18th to take the win. In 2023, a similar situation unfolded, and Mage came back from 16th to win after the leading horse posted a :22.35 split at the first quarter and :rt5.73 for the first half. In 2021, though, things were quite different. Medina Spirit ended up taking first place and was the leader after the first quarter-mile (:23.09) and the first half (:46.70). In 2020, Authentic was the leader at the half-mile (:46.41) and held the lead the rest of the way.
Dornoch
In this field, Dornoch has the inside post. His three wins between October and March all featured him setting the opening pace. Luis Saez should take him to the lead so that he can get ahead of horses that might want to cut over. Track Phantom won three races in a row between November and January in which he led wire to wire. In his last two starts, he finished second and fourth; in each race he held the lead until the last eighth-mile. He will have blinkers at Churchill Downs, which usually boosts a horse’s early speed. T O Password won the Fukuryu Stakes and led wire to wire. These three, if not more, should fight for the early lead – but all three are likely to tire out and get passed.
Fierceness is the favorite; his most recent race was a 13 ½-length victory at the Florida Derby, where he led wire to wire. He also pushed the pacesetter hard when he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and in February he took third at the Holy Bull Stakes after following the pace for the first half-mile before charging into the lead – and then tiring down the stretch. He runs out of post 17, which means he will need early speed to have solid position entering the first turn. This could end up with him getting caught wide at the first turn, or he might zip into that early lead.
Sierra Leone posted a 107 Equibase Speed Figure at the Blue Grass Stakes, the third-fastest result of all the horses in this field. His three-year-old debut at the Risen Star Stakes resulted in a win, but his speed figure was just 98. His three-year-old season featured blinkers, which helped him add speed. In the Blue Grass Stakes, he came back from seventh and extended his stride to blow by the last three horses in the final eighth of a mile. He can follow his cues to add speed and has shown considerable intelligence. This ability should allow him to put the hammer down on the far turn when other horses are wearing out, which is why he is my smart pick to win.
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