The horse racing broadcaster offers up his selections for a festive feast of racing at Kempton, including bets in the Christmas Hurdle and King George VI Chase.
A real Boxing Day feast in store with the main action on ITV coming from Kempton’s King George card.
The first of the ITV races is a novices’ handicap chase where ES PERFECTO
6/1
(12:45 Kempton) can go a couple of places better than when third in this race last season. His experience over fences – he is a second-season novice – is a big plus and he just seemed to find the ground just on the fast side last season so hopefully there should be a little more give in it here. He won over course and distance last time and seems to be taking his racing well, now having had a break of 678 days earlier in his career. As a result, he doesn’t have many miles on the clock and so can cope with 126, having placed over hurdles off a higher mark earlier in his career.
THE JUKEBOX MAN
5/6
(13:20 Kempton) can confirm placings with Masaccio from Newbury in the Grade 1 Kauto Star over 3m. It was a shorter trip at Newbury and The Jukebox Man showed a surprisingly good turn of foot to come away from a solid looking field. That gave connections a puzzle as there is no middle-distance novice chase at the Festival this year and they have decided to go down the longer route, which seems sensible given his Albert Bartlett run last year. It is his first time going right-handed in nine starts under Rules but he won his Irish Point going that way round and has shown no signs of jumping left, though he has on occasions hung that way. Masaccio is a gritty opponent and shaped at Newbury as if the step up in trip will suit. He finds plenty for pressure and rates the main danger especially if The Jukebox Man does jump left.
The Christmas Hurdle is an absolute stormer. Few would have anticipated the shake up the Champion Hurdle market has already undergone this season, with defeat for State Man and more travails for Constitution Hill. LOSSIEMOUTH
10/11
(13:55 Kempton), however, has significantly enhanced her credentials by brushing aside Teahupoo and this clearly represents her best opportunity of inflicting a first career defeat on Nicky Henderson’s star hurdler. My heart would love to see Constitution Hill once again dismantle the field but, given he was carrying condition when last seen at the Newbury gallops morning and then had another hold up in his work, it is difficult to imagine him being spot-on here as opposed to Cheltenham in March. The head therefore says a race-fit Lossiemouth has a perfect chance to expose any weakness, and has to be the selection. Things may be very different come March and it would be no surprise for connections to express their delight in Constitution Hill finishing an honourable second, which is not really what you want to hear if you if are having a bet!
If there is a small select field for the Christmas Hurdle then it is great to see a field of 11 declared for the King George VI Chase, the largest since 13 lined up in 2009. There are some familiar names, but the two that stand out as having the biggest potential to take another step forward are Il Est Francais and SPILLANE’S TOWER
100/30
(14:30 Kempton). Il Est Francais announced himself on the UK stage with an astonishing display here last year in the Kauto Star, in a time five seconds faster than that clocked by Hewick in the King George itself. The issue for him is that he has twice run well below par at Auteuil, seemingly due to bursting blood vessels. Given his prominence in the market, it seems to be taking a big chance to believe in such a competitive race the issue will not reoccur.
Spillane’s Tower would be a fairytale success for the Mangan family and it is to their credit that they have never ducked a challenge with him. That was certainly the case in the John Durkan at Punchestown, where he was as big as 18-1 in a field full of staying chasing’s biggest names in Galopin Des Champs, Fastorslow and eventual winner Fact To File. In finishing second he stamped himself as a top class prospect and victory here would confirm him as a real Gold Cup contender. He has plenty of experience for a second season chaser having run seven times last campaign and could be the class act in the field.
ITV will also bring action from Wetherby and Aintree, where the Grade 1 Formby Hurdle at 13:05 has attracted a really strong field of novice hurdlers. The move to Aintree from Sandown (formerly run as the Tolworth) does seem to have worked, but it is a shame that the Aintree card is not run on a different day over the Christmas period where it could hold centre stage. The period between Christmas and New Year is one now that any future fixture list changes should focus on. Many more people now take that whole period off, yet the fixture list has not been expanded to allow people to have more opportunities to make going racing part of the their Christmas. This would an ideal chance to move some fixtures from their quiet backwaters to this week, where racecourses can benefit from crowds similar to the ones that flock to the many Boxing Day meetings, which are so important to the finances of the smaller courses that hold them.
This year’s Formby just looked too tough a nut to crack with several improving horses, but the feeling is that Country Mile may have been flattered by sitting out the back at Cheltenham in a strongly run race, while Potters Charm looks short enough as I was not a great fan of Valgrand when they met and his performance may have again looked better than it was. I will therefore take the approach that is so useful to punters – while bookmakers have to price up every race, we do not have to bet on them all!
Enjoy the racing on Boxing Day, especially if you are going to a meeting at one of those smaller tracks, and once again a very Happy Christmas.
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