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Prediction for Hawaii Bowl 2024 | The only bowl game on Christmas Eve takes place in the tropics as Honolulu prepares to host the Hawaiian Bowl. This year, the game features the South Florida vs San Jose State.
These programs will square off for just the second time – and the first time since 2017, when the Bulls rolled over the Spartans, 42-22.
South Florida lost quarterback Byrum Brown to injury early this season and limped out to a 2-4 start before turning things around, finishing 6-6.
Their biggest win was a 63-30 demolition of Tulsa, and now Alex Golesh has taken the Bulls to two bowl games in each of his two seasons as head coach.
San Jose State started 2024 with new head coach Ken Niumatolo, who brought in huge turnover in the staff and on the roster.
Things clicked, though, as the Spartans started off 3-0 and picked up big wins over Oregon State and Stanford, finishing the season 7-5. Both of these programs have played in 11 bowl games.
San Jose State is 5-6 all-time, including a 24-14 loss to Coastal Carolina in their last bowl. South Florida has gone 7-4 all-5ime, including a 45-0 shellacking of Syracuse in last year’s Boca Raton Bowl.
Who will bring home the Christmas Eve win? Read on to get our sports betting prediction.
Prediction for Hawaii Bowl 2024: South Florida vs San Jose State Preview
NCAAF Spread/Total: San Jose State -2.5 / O/U 65
NCAAF Moneylines: South Florida +114 vs San Jose State -140
When: Tuesday, December 24, 2024, 8:00 pm ET
Where: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, HI
TV: ESPN
Radio: No National Broadcast
Live Stream: Hulu
South Florida vs San Jose State Final Score and Prediction for Hawaii Bowl
The Hawai’i Bowl has been a low-scoring affair in recent years, as the last two winners failed to exceed 25 points. Both of these teams permit more than that per game, though, and both can generate points in a hurry. This is a game that involves long travel, significant opt-outs on both sides, and a fairly even matchup.
I predict a final score of San Jose State 27, South Florida 23.
South Florida Bulls Analysis
While Byrum Brown has been out since the end of September, he is healthier than he has been since then and is questionable to start. If he can’t go, then Bryce Archie will resume duties as signal-caller. He has thrown for 1,679 yards and nine touchdowns. Either way, the Bulls will focus on the ground game. Tailbacks Kelley Joiner (766 yards), Nay’Quan Wright (494) and Ta’Ron Keith (414) have keyed a running game that picks up 190.6 yards per game. The defense has been iffy at times against the run, permitting 155.4 yards per game, but they had 86 tackles for loss as a unit.
Some of our newest Bulls gettin’ reps in Hawai’i 💪#ComeToTheBay | #StayInTheBay pic.twitter.com/MpOuT7oOzI
— USF Football (@USFFootball) December 23, 2024
The Spartans lost their top two cornerbacks to the transfer portal, which should create opportunities for either USF quarterback to find receivers down the field. The Bulls’ top receiver was Sean Atkins, who had 68 catches on the year. Michael Brown-Stephens (28) and Keshaun Singleton (22) also played a part in the passing game this year. On defense, the Bulls limited AAC opponents to 28.6 points and 5.8 yards per play. The Bulls were only ranked 80th in the nation in pass defense, but Spartans wide receiver Nick Nash and his 104 catches have opted out to prepare for the NFL draft.
San Jose State Spartans Analysis
San Jose State led the Mountain West Conference in passing offense with 325.3 yards per game. Quarterback Walker Eget threw for 2,224 yards and 11 touchdowns, and even with the absence of Nash, they still have Justin Lockhart (52 catches) and tight end Jackson Canaan (23) to key the offense.
⚪️🔵🔵 #AllSpartans | #ThisIsSparta pic.twitter.com/01BqvoKE8L
— San José State Football (@SanJoseStateFB) December 23, 2024
South Florida only ranked 11th in the AAC in pass efficiency defense, so the Spartans will be able to throw the ball. Tailback Floyd Chalk IV (^61 yards) could have a breakout night against that suspect South Florida run defense.
On defense, San Jose State forced 27 turnovers and limited teams to 5.1 yards per play, one of the best units in the MWC this year. Even without cornerbacks D.J. Harvey and Michael Dansby, DC Derrick Odum has put together a solid system.
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Prediction for Hawaii Bowl 2024: South Florida vs San Jose State
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