Enda McElhinney’s selections for the first Grand Slam of the tennis season include each-way bets on Elena Rybakina and Madison Keys.
World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka starts a warm favourite for the women’s Australian Open, which starts on Sunday, as she bids to claim a third straight title at Melbourne Park.
Sabalenka came from a set behind to defeat Elena Rybakina in 2023 before she outclassed Qinwen Zheng 6-3 6-2 to make it a successful title defence last year and a warm-up win at the Brisbane International will have hopes high of her securing the hat-trick.
However, the top seed will have to navigate a tricky draw if she is to reign supreme again and there are plenty of challengers to her supremacy.
Coco Gauff, Iga Swiatek and Rybakina are just three who will also rightly fancy their title chances and there could be value to be had in opposing the world number one.
Tips
Elena Rybakina to win (each-way) 8/1
Madison Keys to win (each-way) @ SP
Rybakina primed to hit the ground running
While Sabalenka’s claims are crystal clear, the big-hitting Belarusian is going to have to do things the hard way with her potential route to the final featuring mouthwatering clashes against teenage star Mirra Andreeva, last year’s runner-up Zheng and 2023 US Open champion Coco Gauff.
That means the bottom half of the draw could be the place to go on the hunt for value and there are plenty of reasons to be taking on second seed Iga Swiatek, whose semi-final run in 2022 is the only time she has gone past the fourth round of the Australian Open in six attempts.
Swiatek is at her most devastating on a slower surface – she has won the French Open in four of the last five seasons – and that means the big-serving Rybakina could be the one to focus on.
The Kazakh sixth seed finished runner-up to Sabalenka here in 2023, having taken a set lead, and while last season would have been deemed disappointing, she did still claim three pieces of silverware in Brisbane, Abu Dhabi, Stuttgart.
That win in Brisbane, a warm-up event for the Australian Open, is especially interesting as it is further evidence that she thrives under these conditions and can start a season strongly.
Rybakina is also a former Grand Slam champion, having lifted the Wimbledon title in 2022, so isn’t the type of player to wilt under pressure if dealt a winning opportunity.
Swiatek may be lurking in the semi-final but Rybakina’s draw before could prove pretty routine, with Madison Keys, Danielle Collins and Jasmine Paolini the only real concerns before then, and that makes her a strong each-way candidate.
American could be a key to success
If Rybakina falters then those looking to take a flier at bigger odds in the bottom half could do way worse than side with Keys, who is twice an Australian Open semi-finalist.
The resurgent American was forced to miss the Australian Open last season but she looks in good form as she bids to make up for lost time, having built on her quarter-final run at the ASB Classic by reaching the semi-final in Adelaide.
At the time of writing, Keys had yet to play her last-four encounter with Liudmila Samsonova, but she had overcome three talented performers in Beatriz Haddad Maia, Jelena Ostapenko and Daria Kasatkina prior to that and is evidently in fine fettle.
The resurgent American did make the semi-final of the US Open as recently as 2023 and if putting her best foot forward would be capable of going on another deep run Down Under.