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Know all about March Madness Betting Cinderellas. In college basketball’s modern era, dominated by TV revenues, transfer portals, and NIL deals, parity once extended beyond just the “power” conferences, transforming the game’s landscape.
In the 1949-50 season, City College of New York won both the NCAA and NIT titles, defeating Bradley in the finals of each, as tournaments were not concurrent then.
The NIT, once hosting 12 teams and seen as superior, featured the 17-5 Beavers, who, despite not being in the AP Top 20, defeated defending champs San Francisco by 19 points.
They beat #3 Kentucky in the second round before facing Kentucky in the third round. Kentucky was a racially segregated school at that time, and CCNY had two black players and three Jewish players in their starting lineup.
Some of the Wildcats wouldn’t shake hands with these players before the game, so CCNY simply dealt out an 89-50 beating, the worst loss ever for a team that famed coach Adolph Rupp led.
Regarded as a “Cinderella” team, they triumphed over Duquesne and #1 Bradley for the title, later winning the NCAA tournament, leading coach Nat Holman to The Ed Sullivan Show.
There are still Cinderella teams today, but CCNY’s run was one of the first. Are you considering including March Madness in your sports betting?
Read on to learn more about “Cinderella” teams and how to maximize your wagering on them this year.
March Madness Betting on Cinderellas: Why you should bet on those teams?
What are “Cinderella” teams?
Cinderella, an unfortunate stepdaughter in a toxic family, endured the envy of her stepsisters who received love and beautiful clothes. While they indulged, she toiled with household chores. However, her fairy godmother arrived, gifting her a stunning gown, shoes, and jewelry for the prince’s ball, transforming her fate.
Some of the farm animals were magically transformed into servants, and a pumpkin became a magical chariot to carry it to the big night. The only rule was to return home before midnight. Distracted by dancing with the prince, she ran for the exit just as the spell ended.
Examples
“Cinderella” teams are those unexpected contenders in the Big Dance that defy expectations by winning games. While they may achieve stunning victories, the inevitable moment arrives when they face a top-tier opponent and fall. Since 1985, the lowest-seeded champion was Villanova, claiming victory as an 8-seed that year.
In 2024, 11-seed N.C. State, with a 17-14 record, won eight consecutive games to capture the ACC Tournament title and secure an NCAA Tournament spot, ultimately reaching the Elite Eight and defeating 2-seed Marquette.
Notable Cinderellas include George Mason (11-seed, 2006 Final Four, defeated 1-seed UConn), Davidson (10-seed, 2008 Elite Eight, upset 2-seed Georgetown and 3-seed Wisconsin with Stephen Curry), and Loyola-Chicago (11-seed, reached Final Four with Sister Jean’s support, defeating 3-seed Tennessee).
Who are the “Cinderella” teams this year?
Cleveland State (16-6) from the Horizon League is on a 12-game winning streak, starting December 7 against Wisconsin-Green Bay and continuing with a recent victory over the struggling Phoenix (2-20, 0-11 Horizon League), lacking March Madness impact.
A Horizon League tournament title secures a spot in the Big Dance, and their winning streak has placed them in Andy Katz’s Power 37. With a balanced offense featuring four to five double-digit scorers, they excel from three-point range; they made 50% of their shots from beyond the arc in their recent win. They could upset higher seeds in the tournament.
St. Mary’s (18-3)
The Gaels, undefeated in the West Coast Conference, have reeled off eight straight wins and 14 on their travels. In their last game, they rallied from a double-digit deficit against Washington State, thanks to a decisive block by Mitchell Saxen.
New Mexico (17-4)
This team boasts a 9-1 record in Mountain West Conference play, highlighted by a significant road victory at UNLV. Donovan Dent scored 34 points while Nelly Joseph contributed 22 points and 18 rebounds, with the pair shooting 57% overall. The Lobos’ defense excelled, allowing no field goals in the final 3:48 and winning rebounding (43-35) and paint scoring (42-28) battles. With Joseph’s inside presence, rebounding issues in the NCAA tournament may be alleviated.
Ole Miss (15-5)
The Rebels, part of the SEC, are often overlooked despite ESPN’s Joe Lunardi projecting them as a 6-seed facing either Ohio State or North Carolina in a potential First Four matchup. While 6-seeds aren’t usually seen as Cinderella stories, this projection may be optimistic based on the Rebels’ season finish. Lunardi anticipates 13 SEC teams in the tournament, and the Rebels are coached by Chris Beard, who led Texas Tech to a national championship game.
Beard led Ole Miss to a 20-12 (7-11 SEC) record last year, missing the NCAA tournament. This season, they aim for better results with a fast-paced offense and aggressive defense. While the Rebels have displayed this potential, their seed is likely to fall outside the top eight. They remain an overlooked basketball team, contrasting with their higher-profile football reputation in the SEC.
VCU (16-4)
The Athletics are emerging as a potential Cinderella, winning six straight and tying for the Atlantic 10 lead. They overcame an eight-point halftime deficit against St. Bonaventure, securing a 75-61 victory with a 61.5% shooting performance after halftime.
After halftime, the Rams gained momentum with a 12-2 run, leading for nearly 14 minutes. They dominated bench scoring 15-0 and outscored the Bonnies 33-12 from three-point range, offsetting a 10-point deficit in the paint. Their aggressive defense and strong shooting make them formidable opponents.
Why you should bet on these “Cinderella” teams
Some in sports betting advocate wagering on every March Madness underdog, arguing that even with less than half wins, the value from successful upsets can produce profits. Nonetheless, very few bets guarantee payouts. An exception is the strategy of selecting an MLB team that won its last game against a team that lost their last game, which shows promising results.
KenPom Ratings
To identify Cinderella teams, focus on elite offensive efficiency, a crucial KenPom metric. Teams in the top 50 for this metric often reach the Sweet 16, as seen with Cornell (2010), Loyola-Chicago (2018), and Syracuse (2018) making the Final Four.
The Turnovers
Turnover margin is crucial, as teams generating consistent turnovers gain extra possessions. Live-action turnovers, like steals, create fast-break opportunities that are tough to defend. In 2011, VCU’s Final Four run as an 11-seed featured an impressive 5.0 turnover percentage differential.
In 2005, Wisconsin-Milwaukee reached the Sweet 16 as a 12-seed by generating turnovers on 24.5% of possessions, ranking 32nd nationally. They forced 41 turnovers in wins against Alabama and Boston College while committing only 23, utilizing effective full-court pressure to advance in the tournament.
John Calipari
Experience is crucial. Calipari’s Kentucky teams, known for the “one-and-done” system, could have excelled further. In contrast, Cornell (2010) and Richmond (2011) thrived with senior players, as their top scorers were experienced, highlighting the diminishing presence of seniors in college basketball.
While exceptions exist, such as UCLA’s 2015 team with NBA-ready youth, most teams advancing in the tournament rely on experienced juniors and seniors to provide a steadying influence. Age plays a significant role.
🚨 National Championship tip-off time!
The 2025 National Championship will tip off at 8:50pm ET – 30 minutes earlier than the typical start time. pic.twitter.com/h39KTt16Q0
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) January 28, 2025
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