The horse racing broadcaster offers his selections for this weekend’s racing and previews the Dublin Racing Festival with a look at the Cheltenham ante-post markets.
The Six Nations may be kicking off this weekend but for National Hunt Racing it is a question of the Three Nations, with excellent cards at Sandown, Musselburgh and Leopardstown over the weekend.
Domestically, the Grade 1 feature is the Scilly Isles Novice Chase at Sandown over 2m 4½f. This race has, in a way, gained extra significance as there is no longer the middle-distance option for novice chasers at the Cheltenham Festival. JANGO BAIE 5/6 (14:35 Sandown) jumped soundly on his chasing debut at Cheltenham and the form has been franked the second horse that day, Springwell Bay, and he looks to have the race run to suit here. Having won over 3m, Handstands is not likely to hang around, especially as that would also expose Kalif Du Berlais’ stamina doubts at 2m 4f. Hopefully this will just allow Nico De Boinville to shadow Handstands and pick him off at the last.
Chris Down saddles a rare runner at Sandown with IN LIMBO 11/1 (13:25 Sandown) who goes handicapping after two placed efforts in novice hurdles. He had run in three point-to-points before running under rules, where he had form lines with several horses who have turned out OK, including Shanagh Bob, Gorgeous Tom and Law of Supply. The step up to 2m 4f will definitely suit, and he is a big strong horse who could surprise a few higher profile rivals before going on to make his mark as a novice chaser next campaign.
ETALON 2/1 (14:00 Sandown) was undone by a rare error at Windsor last time but has dropped to a dangerous mark. His last visit to Sandown saw him comfortably defeat Gunsight Ridge off a 4lb lower mark and, in fact, he lines up better off against that rival here. The Skeltons are very much targeting ITV races for Harry’s bid for the David Power Jockey Cup and it would be no surprise if he left this season’s runs well behind with an improved effort.
Away from the main action, LUD’OR / (13:33 Wetherby) was unlucky to bump into a smart one in Juby Ball at Ffos Las last time and has been found a good opening to get off the mark over hurdles. His third the time before at Uttoxeter behind subsequent Windsor winner Derryhassen Paddy has also worked out well, with the fourth horse Roaring Conquest also victorious next time.
On the All-Weather, CYNOSURE / (16:40 Wolverhampton) was caught close home at the track last time but looks the type to have a good winter on the AW and can continue the good run of Andrew Balding – his last 10 runners have all finished in the first three. A rise of just 1lb should not be enough to stop him here.
CHELTENHAM CORNER
Some big clues to the major races at the Festival take place in Ireland this weekend, with Willie Mullins dominating the entries in the Dublin Racing Festival. With several of the high-profile Gordon Elliott horses content to sit on the sidelines and the Henry de Bromhead yard on the quiet side at present – just 2/60, A/E 0.24 in January – the way looks clear for Closutton domination. Here is a quick summary of the Cheltenham betting ante post markets that will be affected by performances at the weekend:
Gold Cup
Round 3 between Galopin Des Champs and Fact to File is the race of the weekend in the Irish Gold Cup (15:30 Saturday). It’s 1-1 so far this season. Leopardstown over 3m very much plays to the dual Gold Cup winner’s strengths, so Galopin Des Champs would be expected to confirm the form from Christmas. He was allowed the run of things on that day and it will be interesting to see if any of the others apply some more pressure in the early stages. It’s unlikely to be Fact to File, who seems more likely at this stage to end up in the Ryanair and needs to prove he can settle better if he is to have that target altered to a Gold Cup tilt.
Cheltenham Gold Cup ante-post odds
Galopin Des Champs 4/5
Fact To File 7/2
Triumph Hurdle
The UK horses have a bit of a stranglehold on the market here, courtesy of Lulamba and the impressive Cheltenham winner East India Dock, who has already posted form good enough to win most recent Triumph renewals. Ireland will be hoping a stand-out candidate to fly their flag will emerge from the Grade 1 juvenile hurdle (13:50 Leopardstown Saturday) because at present there isn’t an obvious one.
Triumph Hurdle ante-post odds
Lululamba 13/8
East India Dock 11/4
Arkle Chase
Majborough took advantage of Sir Gino’s absence to win last year’s Triumph and success in the Irish Arkle (14:25 Saturday) should set up a mouthwatering Anglo-Irish clash between the two in the Arkle at the Festival. Both have impressed with their initial chasing efforts and both are scheduled for one more run between now and Cheltenham, with Sir Gino earmarked for the Game Spirit against more experienced rivals at Newbury next weekend. If neither fluffs their lines, the Arkle could become the race of the Festival.
Arkle Chase ante-post odds
Sir Gino 8/11
Majborough 11/4
Champion Hurdle
Things will be no clearer with the absence of Brighterdaysahead in the Irish Champion Hurdle (15:20 Sunday) as to whether she will have a crack at Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle rather than the Mares Hurdle, which connections have steadfastly insisted is the target. It should, however, clarify the same decision that faces Lossiemouth after she looked to be taken out of her comfort zone early at Kempton over Christmas. It will also shed further light on where last year’s Champion Hurdle winner State Man is, after being twice beaten by Brighterdaysahead this season, the last of which was almost too bad to be true. Any hopes State Man’s connections had of Sunday’s facile Naas winner Alnadam being a potential substitute were dashed when he was ruled out for the rest of the season after picking up an injury in the race.
Champion Hurdle ante-post odds
Constitution Hill 4/6
Brighterdaysahead 3/1
Lossiemouth 7/2
Queen Mother Champion Chase
Gaelic Warrior and the almost forgotten horse El Fabiolo will be looking to set up another Mullins v Henderson clash in the Dublin Chase (14:10 Sunday). Jonbon has so far dominated this division and is currently a short priced favourite. An impressive victory for either of the Mullins pair could open the market up a bit.
Champion Chase ante-post odds
Jonbon 5/4
Gaelic Warrior 5/2
El Fabiolo 6/1
Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase
After being put in his place by Sir Gino, Ballyburn now seems committed the 3m option at the Festival and again faces a high-profile rider in Impaire Et Passe (13:10 Sunday), whose connections aborted a trip to Sandown when the weather meant the Scilly Isles will be run on testing ground. At 2m 5f there may not be much between them, though whether Impaire would byPasse the Festival completely with no middle-distance option and instead wait for Aintree and Punchestown must also be a possibility.
ITV is showing racing from Ireland and Musselburgh on Sunday along with the usual Saturday coverage on a weekend that represents the most significant two days of racing for the Festival betting markets between now and March.
Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase ante-post odds
Ballyburn 5/2
Dancing City 3/1
Impaire Et Passe 10/1