Super Bowl LIX preview: Stats to know, matchups to watch for Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs

The Philadelphia Eagles lost linebacker Nakobe Dean to a season-ending knee injury in the Wild Card Round, forcing Oren Burks into the starting lineup. In the next two playoff games, opponents’ tight ends drew 30 targets and turned them into 23 receptions for 201 receiving yards. For comparison, the Eagles allowed the fewest receiving yards per game (34.76) and the lowest yards-per-target average (7.74) during the regular season.

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It doesn’t bode well for Philadelphia against Kansas City, especially given the matchup. In four Super Bowl appearances, Travis Kelce has averaged 7.8 receptions and 87.5 receiving yards per game. The Eagles have minimal defensive weaknesses, but this is one area the Chiefs’ offense can exploit.

The Kansas City Chiefs had one of the best run defenses in the NFL for the majority of the regular season. From Weeks 2-14, opponents averaged just 80.3 rushing yards and 0.8 rushing touchdowns per game with a 3.5 yards-per-carry average. During that 12-game stretch, Kansas City ranked third in Defensive Rush EPA (-0.182) with the fourth-lowest Rush Success rate allowed (34.9%). It fell off.

• Kansas City Chiefs run defense (Last 6 games): 146.5 rushing yards per game allowed, 5.08 yards-per-carry average, 1 rushing touchdown per game allowed

It’s an alarming trend ahead of this matchup against Saquon Barkley. Even with the Offensive Player of the Year limited in the NFC Championship Game, the Eagles’ offense still averaged 227.7 rushing yards per game with 10 rushing touchdowns and a 6.6 yards-per-carry average in the playoffs. Barring changes from Steve Sapgnuolo, this matchup massively swings in Philadelphia’s favor.

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While Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie won’t shadow Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown the entire game, the times they line up on one will be one of the best Super Bowl LIX matchups. It’s also one of the few instances of two All-Pro players going head-to-head in this game.

• Trent McDuffie stats: 82.9 QB rating, 6.1 yards per target, 60% completion rate allowed, 50.2 percent man coverage rate
• A.J. Brown stats: 2.82 yards per route run (3rd), 10.4 yards per target (4th), 40.7% win rate vs man coverage (72nd), 34.6% target rate vs man coverage (5th)

If McDuffie can contain Brown, taking away Jalen Hurts’ top option, it makes life considerably easier for this Chiefs’ defense. Kansas City could then have Justin Reid help out No. 2 cornerback Jaylen Watson more against DeVonta Smith. Watson – 56.25 QB rating allowed on 47 pass-coverage snaps – has come back strong since his injury though. Philadelphia’s receiver tandem has the bigger names, but Kansas City’s outside corners could surprise in this game.

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After nearly a full season of issues at left tackle, the Kansas City Chiefs moved All-Pro guard Joe Thuney to the outside. It strengthened the team’s pass protection, but keeping Thuney in that spot for this Super Bowl matchup means All-Pro defensive tackle Jalen Carter can line up against replacement guard Mike Caliendo.

• Jalen Carter stats: 16 QB hits, 12 TFLs, 4.5 sacks, 23 pressures

That is a massive weak link in the Chiefs’ offensive line. For added context, Caliendo has the ninth-worst PFF pass block grade (43.6) in the NFL among qualified guards this season. Meanwhile, Carter has the second-most sacks (two) and the most pressures (20) among defensive linemen in the NFL playoffs. You need a defensive game-wrecker to slow down the Chiefs’ offense, Carter is that.

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The primary concern for Philadelphia heading into the Super Bowl is the health of the interior offensive line. Cam Jurgens (back) and Landon Dickerson (knee) are both banged up with issues that won’t get that much better before the Eagles and Chiefs take the field. That makes the matchup against Chris Jones even more difficult.

• Chris Jones stats: 38 pressures, 20 QB hits, 9 TFLs, 5 sacks, 16% ESPN pass-rush win rate (1st), 70% double-team rate (2nd)

If the injuries force Philadelphia to double-team the All-Pro defensive tackle even more frequently, that opens things up for edge rushers George Karlaftis and Charles Omenihu. Now, the Eagles do have two All-Pro offensive tackles, but they would still be susceptible to a blitz. Plus, Jones has a lengthy track record of making game-changing or championship-sealing plays in the biggest moments.

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In the AFC Championship Game, the Kansas City Chiefs used the RPO on the early drives versus the Buffalo Bills’ zone coverage. Patrick Mahomes was methodical with his decision-making and accuracy, leading to quick and explosive plays. When Buffalo was forced to shift to more man coverage, its highest man coverage rate of the season, the Chiefs’ receivers and Mahomes attacked those matchups.

• Patrick Mahomes vs Vic Fangio defenses: 8-0 record

Philadelphia’s secondary is much better than what Buffalo put on the field in the AFC title game, so that same approach won’t work. Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has also been the king of chess matches this season. However, Mahomes has demonstrated time and time again that he can win in a myriad of ways and he finds ways to succeed regardless of the play style the defense might corner him into often. The Eagles roster is much better than Kansas City’s on paper, but Mahomes is already arguably the second-best player of all time and his track record in these matchups is unmatched. Ultimately, it might come down to Mahomes vs Fangio on a final drive for the Lombardi Trophy.

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