NBA best bets for the second half, including awards, playoff futures

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As the NBA season resumes Wednesday night — with a rescheduled game between the Charlotte Hornets and Los Angeles Lakers — there still aren’t many things we can declare with certainty about how they might unfold.

Hornets-Lakers: How the Mark Williams-Dalton Knecht deal fell apart

I feel comfortable saying the Oklahoma City Thunder are the best team in the league, but that’s about it. Everything else remains a mystery, and that isn’t a bad thing! There’s a ton of intrigue about how the season will turn out.

That uncertainty is reflected in betting odds. Outcomes that feel like real possibilities in markets like award winners and team futures still hold a ton of value, if for no other reason than there being a slightly stronger option in the present. But with two months and roughly 30 games remaining on the schedule for each team, there’s still a lot of time for those markets to change. So, let’s try predicting which ones might do that.

These are my favorite bets as the second half gets underway, with odds from BetMGM.

Stephon Castle to win Rookie of the Year (+125)

This is the only bet on the list where I’m picking the favorite. That’s because the ROY race has been so wide-open that Castle still holds real value. He’s the only award leader with plus odds. However, his production continues to increase each month and should only continue improving with De’Aaron Fox around to make life easier, especially after an active and confidence-building All-Star weekend for the rookie.

https://x.com/NBA/status/1890983498023883181

Rockets to win the Southwest Division (+150)

A 2-7 stretch of basketball entering the break dropped Houston to fourth in the West and second in the Southwest — 2.5 games behind Memphis. But the two wins came in Houston’s last three games, so they’re trending in the right direction. And having the NBA’s 10th-easiest remaining schedule should help them continue tracking the Grizzlies, who have the fourth-hardest remaining schedule, per Tankathon.

76ers to make the playoffs (+260)

The Sixers wouldn’t even make the play-in tournament if the season ended today, so that’s why these odds are so long. Thankfully, it doesn’t, and they only have 1.5 games to make up on the Bulls to change that. If Joel Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey are all playing — which they are for now — I’ll take Philadelphia’s chances to make the playoffs over other potential play-in teams like the Hawks and Heat.

Nikola Jokic to win MVP (+300)

Jokic is a firm but distant runner-up in MVP odds to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at -500, but expect this race to tighten a lot more if Jokic continues on the same path he was on going into the All-Star break. The reigning MVP is averaging a 30-point triple-double in the month of February, and more importantly, the Nuggets are the league’s hottest team, riding an eight-game winning streak into the second half of the season.

Happy 30th! Nikola Jokic’s resume is absurd

Cavaliers to win the NBA Finals (+800)

Do I think the Cavs are actually going to win the finals? No. But I do think these odds are going to shorten a lot more before the season is over. Just think about it. Cleveland is tied with OKC for the league’s best record, yet OKC and Boston have significantly better title odds at +225. Buying the Cavs at these odds should net a buyout profit at the very least if they continue winning at a league-best clip.

Updated NBA Championship betting at @BetMGM

Favorites
▪️ Celtics +225
▪️ Thunder +225
▪️ Cavaliers +800

Highest Ticket%
▪️ Celtics 14.1%
▪️ Lakers 13.1%
▪️ Cavaliers 10.7%

Highest Handle%
▪️ Celtics 16.6%
▪️ Nuggets 12.6%
▪️ Lakers 12.1% pic.twitter.com/pIEkbLvaX6

— John Ewing (@johnewing) February 18, 2025

Grizzlies to win the Western Conference (+1100)

Here’s another bet worth making for the potential of these odds to shorten significantly rather than it actually happening — because let’s be real, it’d be a complete shock to see the Grizzlies make it out the West. At the same time, they have the conference’s second-best record and only the fourth-best odds, behind the Thunder (+105), Nuggets (+650) and Lakers (+700). Those odds should be much tighter considering OKC is the only team in the conference with a better net rating than Memphis.

Odds to win NBA Western Conference at @BetMGM

Thunder +105
Nuggets +650
Lakers +700
Grizzlies +1100
Clippers +1600
Mavericks +2000
Warriors +2000
Rockets +2000
Timberwolves +2000

Highest Ticket%: @okcthunder 18.7%
Highest Handle%: @nuggets 23.1% pic.twitter.com/tkbsuJ9bvO

— John Ewing (@johnewing) February 18, 2025

J.B. Bickerstaff to win Coach of the Year (+1600)

Funny enough, my longest-shot bet of this list might be the one I have the strongest feelings about, because these odds are absurd to me. Kenny Atkinson is a massive favorite right now at -700, and certainly deserving of consideration, but in no way am I more impressed with the job he’s doing in Cleveland than I am with the job Cleveland’s old coach is doing in Detroit. The Pistons were the worst team in the NBA last season, and J.B. Bickerstaff has them sitting in a playoff spot. If they maintain a top-six seed through the end of the year, he’s easily my Coach of the Year.

Shootaround

— Q&A: Ausar Thompson explains why he’s the NBA’s best perimeter defender

— Kevin Durant getting choked up about basketball is what sports are all about

— A wobbly Nikola Jokic was delighted to hear Anthony Edwards’ blunt assessment of USA vs. Serbia

— J.J. Redick trashed the NBA All-Star festivities with a NSFW response