The 2024-25 UEFA Nations League Betting has moved on to the quarterfinals, with legs on March 20 and 23.
These ties involve the group winners and runners-up from League A, and the winners will move on to the next stage in June, heading either to Germany or Italy, depending on which team wins their quarterfinal.
The semifinal matches are set for June 4 and June 5, with the final on June 8, after the third-place match.
Nations League A/B and League B/C playoffs will also take place on March 20 and 23, but this article will focus on the quarterfinal matchups.
Let’s take a look at the schedule, the sports betting odds for the first legs, and some thoughts about the matchups and the eventual winner.
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UEFA Nations League Betting Odds: Quarterfinal Preview
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Quarterfinal Schedule (all kickoffs at 3:45 pm ET)
Thursday, March 20 – First Leg
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Netherlands (+197) vs Spain (+138) (Draw +230)
Nations League Pick: Spain to win
The Netherlands have limped their way to a quarterfinal berth this year. They finished group play with an ugly 1-1 finish at Bosnia & Herzegovina, and they also lost 2-1 to England at EURO 24 last year.
They’ve only won twice in their last seven competitive matches, and they only managed a single point in any of their six group stage matches heading into the knockout rounds.
Furthermore, they will also have to host Spain without Tottenham star Micky van de Ven. Justin Kluivert, who has been playing well for Bournemouth, should get his fourth cap in this match.
Memphis Depay has also been called up, and Brighton goalie Bart Verbruggen should get the nod in net.
Spain captured its fourth European championship last summer, earning 16 points from six group stage matches. They culminated with a thrilling 3-2 victory over Switzerland, making it five consecutive wins by a 13-4 margin and undefeated in two years/
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Croatia (+244) vs France (+113) (Draw +232)
Nations League Pick: France to win
This is actually a rematch of the World Cup final, but now Les Bleus must travel to Croatia. They are not as likely to find as much of a challenge from the hosts.
Croatia did not win any of their group stage matches in Germany. Croatia began their League A season with a 2-1 defeat to Portugal on September 5, and have secured only two wins in nine matches, including a surprising 1-0 loss to Scotland on November 15.
Still, expect the ageless Luka Modrić to lead his field out, garnering a 185th international cap. Former Tottenham star Ivan Perišić, at the age of 36, is also still in the XI for the Croatians.
Both Mateo Kovacic and Josko Gvardiol, contributors with Man City, and Ante Budimir, with 15 goals in 28 La Liga matches for Osasuna, will contribute. But will these players be enough?
France suffered a surprising 3-1 defeat to Italy in their Nations League opener on September 6, but they have since rebounded impressively. They defeated Italy 3-1 again at the San Siro in late 2024, accumulating 13 points from their last three League-A matches.
On October 10, they dominated Israel 4-1 in an away game, winning their last three road League-A matchups with a 9-3 aggregate score. With Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembele leading the offense, France aims to secure victory against Croatia, who previously upset them in June 2022.
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Denmark (+226) vs Portugal (+122) (Draw +230)
Nations League Pick: Portugal to win
Denmark, have failed to benefit from new manager Brian Riemer, as the hiring in October has failed to bring much stability. They finished group play with a scoreless draw at Serbia back in November, finishing a four-game winless stretch to wind up group play. They also went winless in four matchups at EURO 24, so they are a team that could definitely benefit from more consistent offense.
The Danes only have two wins in their last 10 matches across all competitions. Kasper Dolberg will be on the shelf due to some knee issues, but Rasmus Hojlund of Manchester United will join the XI after ending a lengthy goal drought with the English Premier League. Goalie Kasper Schmeichel will return to the age of 38.
Portugal breezed through all six Nations League group stage matches without a defeat and could be an interesting title contender. They have done particularly well on the road, with just one loss in their last 16 away fixtures. Cristiano Ronaldo and his five Ballon d’Or trophies will lead his side out onto the field for his 218th cap. João Félix has been struggling at AC Milan while on loan from Chelsea, but he will still join the XI. Bruno Fernandes has been on fire for Manchester United and will also take the pitch.
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Italy (+173) vs Germany (+161) (Draw +222)
Nations League Pick: Take the draw
Germany posted 18 goals in group play, the most of any League A team. They got 12 of those out of two matches, though – a 5-0 rout of Hungary and a 7-0 dismantling of Bosnia & Herzegovina. Both of those humiliations took place at home, though, and this match is not inside the friendly confines of Germany. They’ve only lost once in the last 12 months, though – a 2-1 setback against Spain in the EURO 2024 quarterfinal.
Ever since the 2022 World Cup, when Germany somehow failed to make it out of group play while Japan advanced. In 2023, Germany drew Ukraine and Mexico and lost to Turkey, Australia and Poland, among others, so there is some consistency to work on yet. Robert Andrich from Bayer Leverkusen is a contributor in the double-pivot. Kai Havertz (Arsenal), Deniz Undav (VfB Stuttgart) and İlkay Gündoğan (Man City) have all tried their hand at central advanced midfield.
Italy has several excellent players looking to join the XI, including Nicolo Fagioli, Riccardo Calafiori and Niccolo Zaniolo. The last round of Nations League play in November had a slightly different look – one that struggled to finish. Florian Wirtz of Bayer Leverkusen will not be there due to an ankle injury, but Bayern Munich midfielder Aleksandar Pavlović could take a cap. In their last five matchups, Germany have won twice and there have been three draws.
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Sunday, March 23 – Second Leg
- Spain vs Netherlands
- France vs Croatia
- Portugal vs Denmark
- Germany vs Italy
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UEFA Nations League Betting Picks to win
- Spain +333
- Germany +400
- France +410
- Portugal +460
- Italy +900
- Netherlands +1400
- Denmark +1600
- Croatia +1800
Not only have Germany scored the most goals (18), they have permitted the fewest (4) in group play.
Their group was not all that intimidating past the Netherlands, though, as Hungary and Bosnia & Herzegovina combined for one win between the two nations.
Spain had the best group play record with five wins and a draw, and their group included not just Denmark but also Switzerland, who had a surprisingly poor run.
France has a rejuvenated Mbappé back out there, and Portugal have Cristiano Ronaldo, who should be motivated in what could be one of his last international seasons as Father Time is sneaking up.
Of the four darker horses in this list of eight, all of them have flaws, but those 13 goals that Italy and Netherlands put up in group play show that their offenses can produce against top teams.
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