The horse racing broadcaster runs through the card on the second day of the Newmarket Craven meeting, plus the National Hunt action at Cheltenham.
The six races on ITV4 on Wednesday are split between the two codes’ headquarters, with four on the Flat at Newmarket and two over jumps at Cheltenham.
The feature race is the Craven Stakes, the latest of the Classic trials, this for the colts and hence a potential pointer for the 2000 Guineas. In recent years, the winner has proved competitive in the Guineas but more from a place than a win standpoint. Four of the last five Craven winners who then took their chance in the classic made the frame, including Haatem who finished third last year.
From a win perspective, the stats are less encouraging with only one Craven winner this century – Haafhd back in 2004 – going on to 2000 Guineas victory, a losing sequence of 14. Kings Best also won the Guineas having run in the Craven, but he could only finish second in the trial. He is the only horse of the 25 to try this century who has even made the frame in the Guineas having been beaten in the Craven.
As regards the race itself, the best starting point is usually Charlie Appleby, who has had three winners from eight runners since he took out a licence. He tends to run a better quality of horse in the race than most, with the winners being Masar (won the Derby), Master of The Seas and Native Trail (both second in the 2000 Guineas) and the latter winning the Irish version. Contrast this to John Gosden’s record of 0/9 since 2000, including expensive reverses for Foundation (4/6) and even Roaring Lion (8/13), and it is clear which of the two stables tend to have their horses more forward.
The issue is slightly complicated by the fact the Appleby yard run two – Aomori City (the choice of William Buick) and Opera Ballo. Aomori City rounded of his campaign by finishing third in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf, one place ahead of New Century – who definitely has place prospects here as well – staying on strongly and looking as if this stiffer mile would suit. Opera Ballo, by contrast, has so far followed exactly the same path as last year’s 2000 Guineas winner Notable Speech, winning the same Kempton maiden in January and Conditions race in February. Their paths have now gone separate ways, with Opera Ballo coming to the Craven rather than a third All-Weather run, but at that stage last year a Guineas run may not have been on Notable Speech’s dance card.
It is the fact Buick has chosen AOMORI CITY 6/1 (15:35 Newmarket) which means he gets the vote in an open looking renewal. Wimbledon Hawkeye deserves a mention, but connections were initially touting a Derby rather than Guineas campaign. The good weather may have brought the horse on earlier than expected, but he can be very fresh and a run to take that out of him before heading up in trip may at least partly be the objective.
Every year I mention the Buick and Appleby stats on their home patch, especially in the spring where their combined record on the Rowley Mile is 61/178 (A/E 1.33).
The pair also team up with Romantic Style in the day’s other Group 3, the Abernant, run over 6f. The sprinting division is competitive but not strong, and she looked to appreciate the drop back to sprinting at Meydan last time in a Listed race. The stronger gallop helped her settle better after pulling her chance away over a mile the time before. At the prices, however, GRAND GREY 16/1 (15:00 Newmarket) is worth chancing having changed hands for €340k after running in the Abbaye and joining a UK stable that does well with this type of sprinter. Even a small level of progress for that yard switch could see him outrun his odds.
Tom Clover has made a good start to the season and INVICTUS GOLD 7/1 (13:50 Newmarket) looks overpriced in the three-year-old sprint handicap that opens the card. He was not disgraced in Listed company at York on the last of his four runs as a juvenile and that form has proved particularly solid with two next-time-out winners, including Dark Cloud Rising who reopposes here but was well beaten that day. Invictus Gold is at the time of writing nearly double the price of Dark Cloud Rising, and the yard’s Tabletalk ran really well at Newbury on Saturday, which gives further encouragement that Invictus Gold will be ready to do himself justice first time out.
The battle for the Trainers’ title adds some extra spice to the closing days of the jumps season and RISKINTHEGROUND 13/2 (14:40 Cheltenham) can follow up his Ayr success from the weekend. He carries a 5lb penalty for that but was put up 8lb for future races, so is 3lb better off here. This might be a battle that Dan Skelton can win, even though he looks certain to lose the war to Willie Mullins.
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