Rumors of the New York Yankees’ interest in signing third baseman Alex Bregman have circulated for awhile. Data shows that would be a terrible idea for the Bombers.
For starters, Bregman won’t hit for much power as a Yankee. He built his power reputation during the juiced-ball era of the late 2010s. He hit 31 homers in 2018, 41 in 2019, and he hasn’t put up more than 26 in a season since.
As a Yankee, fans could expect even fewer long balls. Bregman, a right-handed hitter, likes to pull his homers. Of his 191 career blasts, 132 have gone to left field. Only nine of his round-trippers have been to right field, where Yankee Stadium is most hitter-friendly.
He’s used to hitting in Houston, where left field is notoriously short. At Yankee Stadium, left field quickly curves from 318 feet directly down the line to 399 feet. According to Baseball Savant, Bregman’s career expected HR per park total at Yankee Stadium is 153, the seventh lowest total across all MLB parks.
A reduction in power would make Bregman’s solid .272 batting average and .366 on-base percentage seem subpar. Plus, in the last three years he’s hit well below his career BA mark — .259, .262 and .260, respectively. And in 2024 his OBP dropped precipitously to .315.
Yankees GM Brian Cashman has said the team could sign a third baseman and move Jazz Chisholm Jr. to second base. But while Chisholm may be a more dangerous hitter than Gleyber Torres, Bregman isn’t much better than the Yankees’ second baseman of the past several years.
Bregman’s OPS totals in the last three years (.820, .804, .768) are better than Torres’ (.761, .800, .709). But the difference isn’t enough to justify signing the 30-year-old, depreciating Bregman to a long-term contract.