Despite playing the fewest games of any team in November, the Ottawa Senators amassed an underwhelming 4-5-0 record during that stretch and currently sit bottom of the Atlantic division at 9-10. Excluding the international series in Sweden, Ottawa has lost eight of its last nine home games.
The Senators have between three and six games in hand against every division rival, but making up ground won’t be an easy feat, especially if the Senators cannot consistently string together wins, something that has proven challenging this season.
Many fans are frustrated at the lackluster product on the ice and rightfully so given the amount of young talent on the team.
A handful of fans are calling for head coach D.J. Smith to be fired because of the lack of defensive structure -especially in the second period where they have given up a league-leading 31 goals, many coming in quick succession-, offensive creativity, cohesion between the players, and positive results. Fans also point to the team being in the bottom 10 of the NHL in both powerplay and penalty kill percentage; an excellent special teams unit can be the difference between winning and losing games, an advantage the Sens don’t currently have.
The Sens have given up multiple quick goals on nine occasions this season, including 3 goals in 3:35 vs the Islanders, 4 goals in 7:33 vs Detroit, 2 goals in 2:45 vs Vancouver, 2 goals in 3:25 vs Tampa Bay, 2 goals in 3:55 vs Los Angeles, 2 goals in 1:40 vs Buffalo, 2 goals in 1:10 vs Florida, and two goals in 2:23 and 3:14 vs Carolina.
It hasn’t been happening just this season either. Ottawa conceded goals in quick succession 8 times last season, 5 times in 2021-22 and in 2020-21, and six times in 2019-20.
It’s something the players and coaches are trying to address, but lapses in concentration and focus for a handful of minutes at a time which opponents capitalize on keep persisting. The Sens need to be able to concentrate for a full 60 minutes and maintain focus at all times, whether or not they concede a goal.
After arguably their worst loss of the season, a 5-0 rout at the hands of the Panthers, Smith took responsibility saying he didn’t have the team prepared well enough to compete. That’s not a good look for your head coach.
Before the season started, Smith was firmly on the hot seat behind the bench and was on thin ice with many fans; both fans and media said that if the Senators weren’t in a playoff position 20 games into the season, then a change was necessary.
The Senators have only played 19 games this season and are only one below .500, a much better position than they have been in November in previous years. The Senators have played four fewer games than the New York Islanders and are eight points back of the Isles who hold the final wild-card berth. There is very limited room for error – and losing – moving forward.
Not to mention, the Senators have once again been hampered by injuries to key pieces of their roster, particularly on the defense. Thomas Chabot has missed the last month and a half (10 games) and both Artem Zub and Erik Brannstrom also missed significant time. Forward Shane Pinto has also been suspended for 41 games for alleged betting violations.
How can you properly judge Smith if he’s never had a fully healthy team to work with. On the other hand, he’s had multiple years to string together a winning formula and hasn’t had success. Also, you can argue every team deals with injuries and every coach is supposed to win games with the players he has at his disposal. One can argue that Smith’s job is on the line if the Sens aren’t firmly in a race for a playoff spot by the new year.
Offensively, Smith’s style of hockey is bland, involving too much dump and chase. They should be better with the level of talent on their roster. Defensively, the tactics are questionable at times, they often lose control after conceding which leads to quickly conceding again, and the team appears undisciplined, taking too many silly penalties that put them at a disadvantage.
For example, the penalty less than two minutes into the Panthers game which they conceded a powerplay goal on and as a result had to play catchup for the entire game.
But consider what the Senators have gone through off the ice recently. The extremely lengthy sale process that kept being extended, the Pinto suspension, the invalidated Evgeni Dadonov trade, the process of relocating to a downtown rink, and all the injuries among other things.
Interim general manager Steve Staios believes the players are still playing hard for Smith. Staios believes stability is paramount to the success of the organization. Staios believes the events off the ice have been and still are affecting the morale and confidence of the players.
So it makes complete sense why the Senators aren’t firing Smith. They want to keep him around because management believes the team is fighting hard for him and that he’s still in complete control of the locker room. They’d gain no stability by firing him, they’d only lose stability and arguably begin losing more while trying to implement a new system from an interim coach. There’s no guarantee they start winning consistently with Smith; there is even less of a chance they start winning with a new coach and a completely new system.
Another issue is who would want to take the job, and what candidates are available to take the job? The position in all likelihood will be a temporary one. Once the Sens get a permanent GM, he will arguably want to bring in his own head coach and staff, so why would someone like Claude Julien, Jaques Martin, or Patrick Roy – all tremendous coaches – take a short-term job with very little stability? It’s not an undesirable position by any means; the Sens do have a promising young roster with a lot of talent, but the short-term aspect with no guarantee of staying past the summer isn’t ideal for many candidates.
In all likelihood, Smith will get until the end of the season to prove why he should be extended. If the Sens make the playoffs, maybe he stays. If not, it’s understandable to see him leave in the summer. Considering Staios wants stability, he’ll give Smith one last chance to build and lead a winning team on a playoff run. Staios and management still believe Smith can turn it around.
To go on a playoff run, the leaders of the team need to play an integral role. Brady Tkachuk, and Claude Giroux all need to lead by example and work hard every practice and every game.
Younger players feed off that energy and it will spark them to perform well. The Senators have to focus on what they can control and not let exterior distractions bother them.
Goaltending has been solid this season and their duo of Joonas Korpisalo and Anton Forsberg have kept them in games this season, but the goaltending needs to be consistently better if they intend to go on a playoff run. The difference in the netminder duo’s statistical performances during wins and losses is astounding.
Per The Athletic, In wins, Korpisalo posts a .926 save percentage and 2.36 goals against average. In losses, his save percentage decreases to .886, and his goals against average increases to 4.04.
Similarly, Forsberg posts a .943 save percentage and a 1.30 goals-against average in wins. In losses, his save percentage drops drastically to .766 and his goals against rockets up to 5.65.
Both goaltenders need to play well consistently all season to help ensure continued success.
The Senators have a whopping 15 games in December. This is a make-or-break month for their season and potentially Smith’s coaching job. It won’t be easy to go on an extended winning streak, but if they do it’ll go a long way to helping them meet their playoff expectations. So far, they’re 1-1 this month. They need to continue to be better and play a full 60 minutes to secure wins.
In a press conference with TSN, Smith said the key to success is consistently playing at their best.
“We need to win a game, but we need to win a game doing it right … and then get on some kind of run, rhythm, what have you, and do what I know we can do,” D.J. Smith said.
Forward Josh Norris hopes the next month will bring consistency to their group.
“There’s always a lot of things you want to improve on and certainly we wish that we were at a better place at this point,” Norris said. “Consistency is what you want, you know, it’s the most important word in sports and I think we’re still trying to figure that out. It needs to happen soon.”
The Sens defeated the Kraken 2-0 on December 2 and will look to continue their win streak at home against the New York Rangers on December 5.