AFC Divisional Round Picks, Spread, Lines & Predictions

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The Divisional Round is almost set!

Who will claim the last spot? #NFLPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/W2CiWDtFLh

— NFL (@NFL) January 13, 2025

AFC Divisional Round Picks – NFL Odds Today

Houston Texans (+8) at Kansas City Chiefs (O/U 42)

AFC Divisional Moneylines: Houston +340 / Kansas City -470

AFC Prediction: Texans to cover

Against the Chargers

If you thought the Texans would fall at home to the Chargers in the wild-card round, you weren’t alone. We picked the Chargers to advance as the Texans had shown little energy on either side of the ball for several weeks, clinching the AFC South largely because the other three teams are in varying states of disarray.

But this is why we play the games – the Texans found that stifling defensive identity that saw them roll to a 2023 AFC South title and tear apart the Cleveland Browns in the first round last year. We also saw, for the first time in a couple of months, the Joe Mixon that Houston thought they were getting when they brought him down from cincinnati. C.J. Stroud made some excellent throws to Nico Collins to move the chains, but this was a run-first game.

The Defense

Houston’s defense ranks sixth in the NFL, despite the problems they’ve had in the second half of the season. If their defense can shut down Kansas City – and their success against the Chargers suggests that they can – then this could be another competitive game. The Texans picked off Justin Herbert four times and held them to 261 yards of total offense. That was one more interception than Herbert threw in the entire regular season.

Of course, their next assignment is a Chiefs team that beat the Chargers twice. They did lose twice in the regular season, but only one (at Buffalo) came in a competitive game. They got routed by Denver in Week 18, but all of their key starters were watching the game in street clothes. Patrick Mahomes is more mobile than Herbert, and he’s established a reputation as much wilier when the chips are down, at least in NFL action. Can the Chiefs cover this sizable line, though? I think this game turns into a defensive battle, with neither team able to pull away.

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Baltimore Ravens (+1) at Buffalo Bills (O/U 51)

AFC Divisional Moneylines: Baltimore -108 / Buffalo -113

AFC Prediction: Bills to win and cover

This game will feature the two front-runners for the 2024 NFL Most Valuable Player awards, as Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen and Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson are neck-and-neck for the trophy. Both teams won easily in the wild-card round, although the bigger surprise happened in Buffalo as the Bills shredded one of the top defenses in the league when they undressed the Broncos.

Week 4 vs The Bills

The Ravens took a 35-10 win over Buffalo in Week 4 behind 199 rushing yards from Derrick Henry. That game took place down in Maryland, though, and this time around the scene will be Highmark Stadium in Buffalo. Even with a cold game, though, the Ravens are used to playing in the same raw weather as the Bills. Will Buffalo’s run defense be able to corral Derrick Henry this time around?

In the Week 4 game, Henry rumbled 87 yards to the house on the Ravens’ first offensive play from scrimmage, setting the tone for an ugly night. The Bills permitted 115.5 yards per game on the ground during the regular season, which ranks 12th best in the NFL. Their front seven will have to stand tall to hem in Henry, and their safeties will need to be ready to enter the second level and stop Henry. The Bills didn’t have linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard in Week 4, though, and those key contributors will be on the field this coming weekend.

Matt Milano

Milano could also play a significant role in keeping Lamar Jackson from doing damage himself on the ground. He is the most instinctive and athletic linebacker on the Buffalo roster. He was the spy on Bo Nix in the wild-card round and hemmed in one of the more dangerous running quarterbacks in the NFL. Jackson is faster and more elusive in space than Nix is, so Milano will have an even tougher option. He may also be asked to get after Jackson off the edge and scrape in his direction when he holds onto the read option. That will require a lot of discipline for Milano to stay in position.

Tailbacks

Buffalo has a two-headed monster at tailback – James Cook and Ray Davis. Davis took a big hit against Denver and left the game, so we will have to see if he heads to the concussion protocol ahead of this weekend. The Bills ran for 210 yards against the third-best rushing defense in the NFL in their win over Denver. They also have Josh Allen to let loose in the running game. However, the Ravens allowed the sixth-fewest running yards to quarterbacks this season. In Week 4, Allen and Cook only picked up 60 combined yards on 14 attempts. The Bills will have to find ways to run around Michael Pierce, Roquan Smith and Travis Jones.

Josh Allen

If you just look at the ground game, the Ravens have the slight edge. However, Josh Allen has made play after play with his arm this season, finding receivers down the field and showing the composure to make tough throws without taking some of the same risks that have led to interceptions in seasons past. The combination of Keon Coleman, Amari Cooper and Dalton Kincaid has taken up the slack that Stefon Diggs’ departure in the offseason created in the wide receiver room.

Injuries

The Ravens may not have Zay Flowers (knee) back for this game, and even though the Ravens were able to find Pat Freiermuth and other receivers down the field against Pittsburgh, the Bills also have Von Miller to keep Jackson from settling in too long in the pocket. It’s true that the Ravens have won five straight games by at least 14 points, but the Bills have been scoring at an elite rate down the stretch this season.

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All eyes on Super Bowl LIX. The #NFLPlayoffs are here! pic.twitter.com/lvKnU0sZQl

— NFL (@NFL) January 11, 2025

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