Aug 31, 2024; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Arizona Wildcats wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan (4) celebrates a touchdown with Arizona Wildcats quarterback Noah Fifita (11) against the New Mexico Lobos during the first quarter at Arizona Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Aryanna Frank-USA TODAY Sports
- #14 Kansas State is a 7.5-point favorite over #20 Arizona in Week 3 College Football action on Friday, September 13
- Arizona is riding a nine-game winning streak, the longest active streak in the FBS
- Check out the Arizona vs Kansas State odds, lines and predictions below
Arizona (2-0) will make it’s Big 12 debut on Friday. Sort of. The Wildcats were already scheduled to visit Kansas State (2-0) before deciding to join the Big-12 this season, but since conference play doesn’t officially begin until next week, the Big 12 decided to keep this a non-conference game rather than having both schools find a new opponent.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8 pm ET in Manhattan, Kansas, with Fox providing the broadcast coverage. K-State opened up as a 7-point favorite, and that’s exactly where the line currently sits.
Arizona vs Kansas State Odds
| Teams | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Wildcats | +7 (-110) | +220 | O 60.5 (-105) |
| Kansas State Wildcats | -7 (-110) | -270 | U 60.5 (-115) |
At that number, the spread betting action is heavily weighted towards Arizona. 77% of the spread tickets are backing them, accounting for 63% of the ATS handle. Total wise, the over/under opened up at 56.5, but that number didn’t last long. Heavy action on the over has pushed the total all the way up 60.5.
Odds as of September 12 at ESPN BET. Be sure to check out the best ESPN BET promos before placing a bet on any Week 3 College Football matchup.
Arizona Leans on Aerial Attack
Both schools enter play undefeated, with legitimate aspirations of making it into the college football bracket.
Arizona opened the season by pummelling New Mexico, and then followed that up with an underwhelming win versus Northern Arizona.
QB Noah Fifita and number one target Tetairoa McMillan check in as longshot Heisman Trophy odds candidates, after combining for 304 yards and four scores in the season opener. The duo was held in check last week, but this week’s matchup is tantalizing through the air.
“‘Is this one of our best chemistry moments right here?’” — Tetairoa McMillan, on his 78-yard touchdown from Noah Fifita pic.twitter.com/ykaCumQjw8
— Justin Spears (@JustinESports) September 4, 2024
Kansas State’s defense just coughed up 342 passing yards and 2 TD to Tulane last week, and are yielding a whopping 10.8 yards per pass through two games.
Arizona will need to find success offensively, because their Achilles Heel is on defense. They were torched for nearly 500 yards and 39 points by New Mexico two weeks ago, at a rate of 6 yards per play. They looked better last week versus the Lumberjacks, but a middling Big Sky program simply can’t showcase the same kind of talent that K-State can.
Kansas State Looking for an Avery Johnson Breakout
Kansas State felt so good turning to Avery Johnson at quarterback this year, they let Will Howard walk out the door to Ohio State.
Scramble. Score. Celebrate accordingly.
Avery Johnson finds Will Swanson for the first @KStateFB touchdown of the day 🔥#Big12FB | 📺 ESPN pic.twitter.com/gU8kVL7JcA
— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) September 7, 2024
Johnson actually boasts shorter Heisman odds than Fifita, but he’s yet to flash a ceiling performance. He boasts a 4-to-1 TD-to-INT rate through two weeks, but only 334 passing yards. Johnson’s added another 77 yards on the ground, but for K-State to fully reach their potential, he’ll need to be more productive.
The Kansas State ground attack has picked up the slack early on, rushing for 497 yards in two contests. New Mexico gashed Arizona for over 200 rushing yards in Week 1, which is problematic versus the dual-threat abilities of Johnson and feature back D.J. Gidden. The ladder has eclipsed 100-yards rushing in six consecutive outings dating back to 2023.
Arizona vs Kansas State Prediction
If you were able to hit the over when this line opened pat yourself on the pat. That’s where the value lied, but now the total looks to be an efficient number.
As a result, we’ll target Arizona +7 instead. The Kanas State pass defense is exploitable, and Fifita and McMillan should bounce back. Prior to last week’s dud, Fifita had thrown 29 touchdown passes in his last 10 starts, clearing 300 passing yards six times.
Noah Fifita Last Four Starts
| Opponent | Passing YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|
| Northern Arizona | 173 | 1 |
| New Mexico | 422 | 4 |
| Oklahoma | 354 | 2 |
| Arizona State | 527 | 5 |
He also played without two of his starting lineman last week, and there will be much more continuity among that group on Friday night.
Arizona enters play riding a nine-game win streak, the longest active streak in the FBS. They’re 11-6 ATS dating back to the start of last season, scoring at least 34 points in each of their last five games away from home.
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As SBD’s resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he’d rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.