Aug 14, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; San Francisco Giants third baseman Matt Chapman (26) applies the tag too late to Atlanta Braves outfielder Jarred Kelenic (24) as he slides into third base during the sixth inning at Oracle Park. Kelenic doubled and advanced to third on a throw home. Mandatory Credit: D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports
- Both battling for the final NL Wild Card, the Atlanta Braves and San Francisco Giants close out a four-game series in the Bay Area on Thursday afternoon
- Trying to avoid a sweep, San Francisco sends ace Logan Webb to the mound opposite Atlanta’s Max Fried
- See the Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants odds, predictions, and best player-prop bets for August 15
The best pitching matchup on Thursday’s MLB schedule sees Max Fried and the Atlanta Braves (64-56, 32-30 away) visiting Logan Webb and the San Francisco Giants (61-62, 35-27 home) at Oracle Park at 12:45 pm PT/3:45 pm ET.
Atlanta took the first three games of the series, limiting San Francisco to just five runs in 27 innings. But Thursday’s Braves vs Giants odds slightly favor San Francisco getting one back.
Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves (Fried) | -100 | -1.5 (+164) | O 7.0 (-118) |
| San Francisco Giants (Webb) | -118 | +1.5 (-200) | U 7.0 (-104) |
Thursday’s MLB odds list Webb and the Giants as slight -118 home favorites with the Braves coming back as even-money road underdogs. Atlanta is also priced at +164 to win by multiple runs while the Giants are -200 to keep the score within a run.
The over/under is the lowest on the board among Thursday’s seven MLB games at just 7.0, a full run lower than any other game today.
Odds as of August 15 at FanDuel. Lock in a FanDuel promo code to bet on Braves vs Giants today.Â
Sitting six games back of the Phillies in the NL East, Atlanta’s MLB division odds are as long as +750. They currently hold the third and final Wild Card in the NL but are four back of second and only two games up on the Mets, who are currently the first team out.
After losing three straight to the team they’re chasing, the Giants are now 4.5 games out of the final Wild Card with just 39 games remaining in the regular season.
Max Fried vs Logan Webb
| 7-6 | Record | 10-8 |
| 3.56 | ERA | 3.32 |
| 3.73 | xERA | 4.21 |
| 1.24 | WHIP | 1.25 |
| 22.7% | K% | 20.5% |
An All-Star for the first time in his career, Webb has ironically taken a slight dip compared to last year, when he finished runner-up in NL Cy Young voting. His WHIP has increased from 1.074 to 1.248 and his K% has dropped from 22.8% to 20.5%. His xERA of 4.21 is almost a full run higher than his actual ERA of 3.32, suggesting he’s likely to regress in the final quarter of the season.
That said, he’s been nearly lights-out at home, with an ERA of 2.49 in 76.0 innings at Oracle and an ERA of 4.11 in 81.0 innings everywhere else. Webb has also been sensational over his last three starts, allowing just two runs in 21.2 innings, which includes a complete-game shutout against the A’s on July 31.
He was also excellent in his only previous start against Atlanta this season (July 4), going 7.0 innings while allowing just two runs on seven hits and a walk with six strikeouts. The Giants won the game 4-2 in Atlanta.
Overall, he has rock-solid (if not spectacular) career numbers against the current group of Atlanta hitters, who are slashing .39/.271/.396 in 134 total ABs with four home runs, seven doubles, six walks, and 38 strikeouts.
The homers were courtesy Travis d’Arnaud, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, and Jorge Soler.
Braves fans can be buoyed by the fact that Fried’s home/road splits heavily skew towards away games. The 30-year-old lefty has put up a 3.09 ERA in 70.0 road innings and just a 4.27 ERA in 46.1 innings at home.
His recent results haven’t been nearly as good as Webb’s, though. Fried was injured during All-Star weekend (forearm neuritis) and, in his only two starts since the All-Star break, he was tagged for five runs on four hits and five walks in just 3.1 innings against the light-hitting Marlins, and then allowed five more runs on seven hits and three walks in 5.0 innings at the Rockies.
On the positive side, Fried managed 15 strikeouts in just 8.1 innings. And his numbers against these Giants are exceptional. In 68 ABs, he has limited them to just a .147 average and .511 OPS. Mark Canha is the only player to take him deep with two long balls in 16 at-bats.
Braves vs Giants Predictions
An ugly stretch from the San Francisco offense (15 runs in their last six games) has the Giants’ season on life support. But with a reinvigorated Webb on the mound against a suddenly-struggling Fried, I like the value on the Giants to at least hold the lead after five innings.
I also like Webb to go over his strikeout total of 5.5. While his K-rate is down this year, as mentioned, he had eight last time out against Detroit and six the first time he faced Atlanta this season. The Braves, as a team, whiff a lot, sitting sixth in the majors with a strikeout percentage of 24.6%.
ATL vs SF picks:
- Giants first 5 innings moneyline (-120) at DraftKings
- Webb over 5.5 Ks (-102) at FanDuel
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.