We look ahead to the Euro 2024 last-16 clash in Leipzig with our Austria vs Turkey prediction and preview.
Austria vs Turkey Stats: The Key Insights
- Austria are predicted as the most likely side to win inside 90 minutes by the Opta supercomputer, which gives them a 48.2% win probability.
- This will be the first meeting between Turkey and Austria at a major men’s tournament.
- They last met in March of this year, with Austria winning 6-1 in a friendly match in Vienna.
Perennial dark horses Turkey meet genuine dark horses Austria in an enthralling Euro 2024 last-16 tie on Tuesday.
Austria beat the Netherlands 3-2 to seal top spot in Group D ahead of the Oranje and tournament favourites France.
Turkey, meanwhile, bounced back from a 3-0 defeat to Portugal by beating Czech Republic 2-1 and sealing their progress from Group F as runners-up.
These teams have landed in the kinder half of the draw, with a quarter-final against Romania or the Netherlands up for grabs. And you can expect a full-throttle encounter.
Rangnick’s side are a brilliant pressing unit. Only Germany (8.8) had a lower PPDA in the group stages than Austria (9.0), while they were second for tackles (61) behind Georgia (63) and top for fouls conceded (49).
Turkey love to get on the front foot, too. Indeed, only Portugal (5.8) and Spain (5.4) had a higher non-penalty expected goals (xG) total than Turkey (5.2) in the groups, while Vincenzo Montella’s team were also third for high turnovers (28), behind Croatia (34) and Portugal (30).
Rangnick’s interim stint in charge of Manchester United did not go well, and some eyebrows were raised when Bayern Munich approached him earlier this summer. Yet on the evidence of Euro 2024, Rangnick has still very much got it.
His team have been fantastic, and were worthy winners of Group D, scoring six goals across their last two fixtures in the first round, and only going down to France due to an unfortunate own goal from Maximilian Wöber.
Since Rangnick’s first game in charge in June 2022, only three European nations – Portugal (73%), Spain (67%) and Netherlands (64%) – have a higher win percentage than Austria (60%), who have won 15 of their 25 matches under him.
Austria have qualified for the knockout stages of a major tournament for only a fourth time, also doing so at the 1934 and 1954 World Cups and Euro 2020, losing 2-1 to Italy in the round of 16 in the latter. So it is hardly like the pressure is on, but given their displays so far, there is a feeling they can really go deep in this tournament.
Turkey were well fancied at Euro 2020, but ultimately flopped as they crashed out in the first round.
This is just the third time they have reached the Euros knockouts, after 2000 and 2008, reaching the semi-finals at the latter tournament, which of course was co-hosted by Austria. However, they have yet to win a knockout tie in 120 minutes in the competition. They progressed past Croatia in the quarters on penalties 16 years ago, before losing 3-2 to Germany in the last four.
But this new generation holds no fear.
Only Ukraine (25 years, 281 days) had a younger average age of their starting XI in the group stages than Turkey (26y 170d). In fact, should Kenan Yildiz (19y 59d on the day of the game) and Arda Güler (19y 128d on the day of the game) start, it will be just the second time a nation has started two teenagers in a knockout stage game at the Euros, after Hungary against Denmark in 1964 (Ferenc Bene and Zoltan Varga).
Güler may well be crucial, especially when considering that playmaker Hakan Çalhanoglu will miss this match through suspension. Real Madrid youngster Güler is already his country’s bright new hope, but he could make himself a hero here.
Austria vs Turkey Head-to-Head
This will be the first meeting in a major tournament between Austria and Turkey.
Austria have won two of the last three encounters in all competitions (L1), including an emphatic 6-1 victory in March of this year.
In competitive matches, however, Turkey are unbeaten in their last five games against Austria (W4 D1), keeping a clean sheet each time; this is the first such meeting since a goalless draw in a Euro 2012 qualifier in September 2011.
Austria vs Turkey Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is forecasting an Austria win, giving Ralf Rangnick’s team a 48.2% chance of victory inside 90 minutes. They have a 57.4% chance of progressing to the quarter-final, potentially needing extra-time and penalties to do so.
Turkey have a 24.9% chance of winning inside 90 minutes, while there’s a 26.8% chance of a draw, which would of course mean extra time or even a penalty shootout.
Austria vs Turkey Squads
Austria
Heinz Lindner, Niklas Hedl, Patrick Pentz, Flavius Daniliuc, Gernot Trauner, Kevin Danso, Leopold Querfeld, Max Wöber, Philipp Lienhart, Phillipp Mwene, Stefan Posch, Alexander Prass, Christoph Baumgartner, Florian Grillitsch, Florian Kainz, Konrad Laimer, Marcel Sabitzer, Marco Grüll, Matthias Seidl, Nicolas Seiwald, Patrick Wimmer, Romano Schmid, Andreas Weimann, Marko Arnautovic, Maximilian Entrup, Michael Gregoritsch.
Head coach: Ralf Rangnick
Turkey
Altay Bayindir, Mert Günok, Ugurcan Çakir, Abdülkerim Bardakci, Ahmetcan Kaplan, Kaan Ayhan, Merih Demiral, Mert Müldür, Samet Akaydin, Zeki Çelik, Arda Güler, Ferdi Kadioglu, Hakan Çalhanoglu, Irfan Can Kahveci, Ismail Yüksek, Okay Yokuslu, Orkun Kökçü, Salih Özcan, Baris Alper Yilmaz, Bertug Yildirim, Cenk Tosun, Kenan Yildiz, Kerem Aktürkoglu, Semih Kiliçsoy, Yunus Akgün, Yusuf Yazici.
Head coach: Vincenzo Montella
Austria vs Turkey Predicted Lineups
Our football newsletter ‘Stat, Viz, Quiz’ is going all in on Euro 2024 this summer, so sign up to receive exclusive content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.