Saturday’s women’s college basketball slate is packed with compelling matchups, but the slate’s biggest game takes place in Los Angeles. At 9pm ET, No. 2 UCLA hosts No. 4 USC with the Big Ten title on the line. Both sides are 16-1 in conference play ahead of Saturday’s regular season finale.
As of Friday, the line is UCLA -4.5, and the over/under is set at 141.5 points.
Let’s check out FanDuel Sportsbook’s college basketball odds to find the USC-UCLA best bet.
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
USC vs. UCLA Betting Pick
Under 141.5 (-110)
USC and UCLA will meet for the second time this season on Saturday night with the winner claiming the outright Big Ten title. In a potential Final Four preview, I’m expecting both sides to lock in on the defensive end, pointing me to under 141.5 total points.
In the first matchup, USC and UCLA combined for just 131 points — and that was with Trojans star Juju Watkins going for 38 points. That was SC’s third consecutive win over their cross-town rivals, though the more notable aspect of their recent meetings has been how low-scoring they’ve been.
Over the past two seasons, USC and UCLA have met four times. Last year’s three matchups totaled 135, 138, and 150 points — though the 150-pointer took two overtime periods to reach. At that game’s regulation, they’d only combined for 118 points.
That makes sense given how strong both sides are defensively. On the season, USC ranks 4th nationally in Bart Torvik’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric; UCLA is 8th. They’re both top-10 in effective field goal percentage (eFG%) allowed, too.
And while USC plays at a fast pace, UCLA is just 159th in adjusted tempo. That’s especially meaningful given how USC’s played against slower-paced teams this season. Their 13 games against teams outside the top 100 in adjusted tempo only averaged 135.9 total points. Eight of those went under 141.5.
UCLA, meanwhile, hasn’t really been impacted by opposing teams that like to play fast. Their five games against Power Conference teams in the top 50 for tempo only averaged 138.2 total points.
My numbers have this game projected for 141.3 points; Bart Torvik’s projections have it down at 137. Considering how low scoring their recent head-to-head matchups have been, that’s enough for me to back the under at -110 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.
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