Things started off so well for the Edmonton Oilers in Game 3 before it all came falling apart. They jumped out to a 2-0 lead, then were outscored 5-1 the rest of the way.
So, though, the Oilers are a -135 favorite over the Dallas Stars for Game 4 — and I do like their chances to bounce back for a win — it’s hard to know just how much of Dallas’ hot shooting will carry over and spoil things.
What I do expect, however, is for Edmonton to continue sending a bunch of shots to the front of the net in an attempt to recapture some of that first-period magic. Especially at home, where the Oilers average more than four goals per contest through the regular season and playoffs. Connor McDavid attempted a playoff-high six shots in Game 3. Zach Hyman had seven.
Though, Jake Oettinger may ultimately succeed in limiting how many of those shots actually get past him, I expect it to be another busy night in net. So my favorite bet from this game is for Oettinger to go over 27.5 saves. He saw an average of more than 32 shots on goal through the first three games, recording at least 28 saves in each. I see no reason to believe he won’t be challenged in the same way with Edmonton in desperate need of a win before the series heads back to Dallas.
Prince’s Pick: Oilers moneyline
Best Bet: Jake Oettinger Over 27.5 Saves
Now, let’s get to the rest of my picks for today, with odds via BetMGM.
Prince’s Pick: Nationals +1.5
This game marks the major league debut of 2021 second-rounder Spencer Schwellenbach, who was almost untouchable in the minors this year. It’s tough to say how much of that we can expect to carry over against a Nationals offense that had been playing better in the last week before yesterday’s shutout, but he’ll need similar success to walk away with a win considering how much Atlanta’s own offense has struggled lately. Those struggles are why I’ll take the points.
Prince’s Pick: Liberty -13.5
What we saw happen to the Mercury last night was a massacre, and now they have to take the floor the very next day for another game against one of the league’s few true title contenders. Brace yourself for another ugly one. I don’t expect Phoenix to shoot 24% from the field again, or an abysmal 1-of-27 from three, but it won’t be a surprise to see them run off the floor by a Liberty team that hasn’t played since Saturday.
Prince’s Pick: Lynx +4.5
This should be a fun matchup between what is currently the top-ranked offense in the WNBA (Vegas) and the league’s top-ranked defense. And while I’m aware Minnesota’s success to this point will mean nothing when the ball goes up against the reigning champs, I do think there’s something to the Lynx’s 4-1 start to the season and 5-0 record against the spread. This team is stingy and won’t make anything easy for the Aces.
Prince’s Pick: Austin ML
Austin doesn’t have an explosive offense, but nothing helps a struggling offense quite like playing a team and goalie with one of the league’s worst save percentages. This Portland defense just isn’t very good, and the team is even worse on the road. Conversely, Austin is much better at home and should find a way to come out on top here.
Prince’s Pick: LAFC -1.5
Minnesota’s offense has been outstanding this month, where its netted at least two goals in all four matches. However, two of those fixtures resulted in draws because the defense hasn’t been up to snuff. Allowing almost two goals per game over its last five, Minnesota ranks just ninth in expected goals against in the Western Conference. Leading the league in expected goals for, LAFC has the potential to explode at home.
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