- A packed 15-game schedule is on tap in the MLB on Tuesday, August 27
- The slate is highlighted by Pittsburgh’s rookie ace, Paul Skenes, facing Justin Steele and the Cubs
- See the best MLB picks, predictions, and player props to bet today
After a relatively quiet Monday, Major League Baseball is back to a packed 15-game schedule on Tuesday with all 30 teams in action. The slate starts with rookie Jared Jones leading his Pittsburgh Pirates against the Chicago Cubs at 6:40 pm ET and wraps-up with a heavyweight tilt between the Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Dodgers at Chavez Ravine at 10:10 pm ET.
The table below lists my three favorite bets on Tuesday, along with the sportsbook currently offering the best odds on that particular wager.
MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets for Tuesday, Aug. 27
| Bet | Odds | Sportsbook | Game Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs/Pirates – first 5 innings under 3.5 runs | +122 | FanDuel | 6:40 pm ET |
| Blue Jays moneyline (vs BOS) | +126 | Fanduel | 7:10 pm ET |
| Garrett Crochet over 5.5 Ks (vs TEX) | +120 | DraftKings | 8:10 pm ET |
Today’s trio of picks are all plus-money bets. The first and the last props are backing the starting pitchers, while the second is a wager on the second-hottest team in the league to extend its win streak.
Pick #1: Cubs/Pirates – First 5 Innings Under 3.5 Runs (+122)
Yesterday, the Cubs and Pirates played one of the highest-scoring games of the season, combing for 26 runs in an 18-8 Chicago victory. I don’t expect the second game of the series to look anything like the first. To start, both offenses are below average, with the Cubs sitting 18th in wRC+ (97) and the Pirates a dreadful 27th (86). They’re also 17th and 28th, respectively, in weighted on-base average.
But the bigger impetus for this under bet is the starting pitchers. Rookie Jared Jones (3.56 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) is back on the mound for the Bucs. While he’s (rightfully) been overshadowed by Paul Skenes, the heavy favorite in the NL Rookie of the Year odds, Jones has been exceptional at home in his first season in the bigs. The 23-year-old has a miniscule 2.17 ERA and 1.074 WHIP at PNC Park. Last time out, he surrendered just one run over 5.0 innings to the Cardinals.
Opposite Jones will be Chicago’s Justin Steele (3.07 ERA, 1.05 WHIP). In his last four starts, the 29-year-old lefty has allowed just four earned runs on 14 hits and five walks over 21.2 innings while striking out 27 batters. He’s lowered his ERA from 3.38 to 3.07 in the process.
Like Jones, Steele’s 2024 home/road splits also bode well for him tonight. The fourth-year starter has a 2.70 ERA in road games this season.
Pick #2: Blue Jays Moneyline vs Red Sox (+126)
Today’s second pick is the suddenly-and-unexpectedly red-hot Toronto Blue Jays to extend their six-game win streak against division-rival Boston. The Jays took both ends of a double-header on Monday and, prior, earned a four-game road sweep of the Angels.
On Tuesday, Toronto sends promising rookie Yariel Rodriguez (4.40 ERA, 1.33 WHIP). Rodriguez has struggled his last two starts (nine earned runs on 10 hits, including three homers, in 9.1 innings) but was exceptional in the two prior (one run on nine hits over 10.1 innings with nine Ks). His only previous experience against the Red Sox was one hitless, scoreless inning back in late June.
The Bo-Sox turn to 6’6 righty Cooper Criswell, who’s also been up-and-down of late. He allowed just one run on four hits and a walk over 4.2 innings against Houston in his last start, but was blasted for six runs on nine hits over just 3.1 innings by the Orioles the start prior. He also has a small but concerning history against the Blue Jays hitters, who are cumulatively 5-for-12 with four RBI and a home run (Daulton Varsho).
This is a great spot to back Toronto at significant plus-money.
Pick #3: Garrett Crochet Over 5.5 Ks (+120)
The final pick today is White Sox ace Garrett Crochet to go over his strikeout number of 5.5 at +120 odds when his abysmal White Sox host the Texas Rangers in Chicago. The flamethrowing lefty has seen his strikeout numbers go down in August; in his last five starts, he’s only exceeded five Ks once. The biggest reason for that isn’t Crochet’s performance, it’s his pitch count. During a lost season, interim manager Grady Sizemore hasn’t been willing to let the team’s best asset go past the fourth inning since the All-Star break.
But that still gives Crochet 12 outs to work with, and the 25-year-old has the highest K-rate among pitchers with at least 100 innings under their belt this year (34.2%). One of his six starts since the All-Star break was against the same Texas team he’ll be facing tonight, and he fanned seven Rangers in just 4.0 innings.
It also works to Crochet’s advantage that he’ll be pitching at home. The big lefty has 108 Ks in 71.2 innings at Guaranteed Rate Field (13.56 K/9) compared to 72 Ks in 57.0 innings on the road (11.36 K/9).
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.